Because of what the climate on earth has changed. On the problems and consequences of global climate change on Earth

Earth's climate is changing rapidly. Scientists are trying to figure out what causes climate change by gathering evidence to rule out the wrong causes and figure out who is responsible.

Based on over a hundred scientific studies, it is clear that humans are responsible for most of the climate change over the past 150 years.

People influence climate change

Humans are not the only cause of climate change. Weather has changed throughout Earth's history, long before humans evolved. The sun is the main climate factor. Roughly speaking, the global temperature will rise when more energy from the Sun enters the atmosphere than returns to space through the atmosphere. The Earth cools at any time if more energy returns to space than comes from the Sun, while humans can influence this balance. There are other factors as well, from continental drift and changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit to changes in solar activity and phenomena like the El Niño process (fluctuating water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) can all affect the climate. Given the pace of climate change today, scientists can exclude from the majority some causes that occur too slowly to explain current climate change, while others have small cycles rather than long-term trends in climate change in part of the planet. Scientists are aware of these factors and can take them into account when assessing human-induced weather changes.

Human impact on climate change was first described over a hundred years ago, based on research in the 1850s by the English physicist John Tyndall.

Light from the Sun heats the Earth's surface, which then emits energy in the form of infrared radiation, which is felt on a sunny day. Greenhouse gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb this radiated energy, warming the atmosphere and surface. This process leads to a warmer temperature of the Earth than if it were heated only by direct sunlight.

For over 100 years, scientists have considered humans as the main cause of current climate change. At the turn of the 20th century, Swedish physical chemist Svante Arrhenius suggested that humans, as a result of burning coal, increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and increased the natural warming effect, causing the atmosphere to warm up more than if it all went through strictly natural processes.

When people burn gasoline, coal, natural gas, and other fuels to generate electricity or drive cars, they release significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When a liter of gasoline is burned, the amount of CO2 released will be 2 kg. Greenhouse gases are emitted from power plants and cars, from landfills, farms and cleared forests, and through other subtle processes.

Since the 1950s, scientists have begun to methodically measure the global increase in carbon dioxide. They have since confirmed that the increase is primarily from the burning of fossil fuels (and through other human activities such as land clearing). This increase as well as the change in CO2 is added to the atmosphere and provides a "smoking gun" which indicates that humans are responsible for elevated levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

06/22/2017 article

What is climate change on our planet?

To put it simply, it is the imbalance of all natural systems, which leads to changes in the precipitation regime and an increase in the number of extreme events, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts; these are abrupt changes in the weather that are caused by fluctuations in solar radiation (solar radiation) and, more recently, by human activities.

Climate and weather

Weather is the state of the lower layers of the atmosphere in given time in this place. Climate is the average state of the weather and is predictable. The climate includes indicators such as average temperature, rainfall, sunny days and other variables that can be measured.

Climate change - fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values ​​over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Moreover, changes in both the average values ​​of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme events are taken into account. weather events. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology.

Dynamic processes in the electrical machine of the planet are the source of energy for typhoons, cyclones, anticyclones and other global phenomena Bushuev, Kopylov Space and Earth. Electromechanical Interactions»

Climate change is caused by dynamic processes (disturbances in balance, balance natural phenomena) on Earth, external influences, such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, you can add human activities.

glaciation

Glaciations are recognized by scientists as one of the most marker indicators of climate change: they greatly increase in size during climate cooling (the so-called “little ice ages”) and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and influenced by external influences. The most significant climatic processes over the past few million years are the change of glacial and interglacial epochs of the current ice age, due to changes in the orbit and axis of the Earth. State change continental ice and sea level fluctuations of up to 130 meters are key effects of climate change in most regions.

World Ocean

The ocean has the ability to accumulate (accumulate for the purpose of its subsequent use) thermal energy and move this energy to different parts of the ocean. Large-scale oceanic circulation created by a density difference (a scalar physical quantity defined as the ratio of a body's mass to the volume occupied by that body) of water resulting from the inhomogeneity of the distribution of temperature and salinity in the ocean, that is, it is caused by density gradients as a result of the action of currents fresh water and warmth. These two factors (temperature and salinity) together determine the density sea ​​water. Windy surface currents (such as the Gulf Stream) move water from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean towards the north.

Transit Time - 1600 Years Primeau, 2005

These waters cool down on the way and, as a result, due to the increase in the resulting density, sink to the bottom. Dense waters at depths move in the direction opposite to the direction of wind currents. Most of the dense waters rise back to the surface in the area of ​​the Southern Ocean, and the "oldest" of them (according to a transit time of 1600 years (Primeau, 2005) rise in the North Pacific Ocean, this is also due to sea currents - constant or periodic flows in the thickness of the world's oceans and seas.There are constant, periodic and irregular currents, surface and underwater, warm and cold currents.

The most significant for our planet are the North and South Equatorial Currents, the course of the West Winds and density (determined by differences in the density of water, an example of which can be the Gulf Stream and the North Pacific Current) currents.

Thus, there is a constant mixing between the ocean basins within the "oceanic" time dimension, which reduces the difference between them and unites the oceans into a global system. During movement, water masses constantly move both energy (in the form of heat) and matter (particles, solutes and gases), so large-scale ocean circulation significantly affects the climate of our planet, this circulation is often called the ocean conveyor belt. It plays a key role in the redistribution of heat and can significantly influence the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciation and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate Ecocosm

In the aspect of observation, the present state of the climate is not only a consequence of the influence of certain factors, but also the entire history of its state. For example, during ten years of drought, lakes partially dry up, plants die, and the area of ​​deserts increases. These conditions in turn cause less abundant rainfall in the years following the drought. Thus, climate change is a self-regulating process, since the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, changing, is itself able to influence the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciation and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process will be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

Climate change is caused by changes in the earth's atmosphere, by processes occurring in other parts of the earth such as oceans, glaciers, and in our time by the effects of human activity.

To complete the coverage of the issue, it should be noted that the processes that form the climate, collect it - these are external processes - these are changes in solar radiation and the earth's orbit.

Causes of climate change:

• Changing the size, relief, relative position continents and oceans.
• Change in luminosity (the amount of energy released per unit time) of the Sun.
• Changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis.
• Changes in the transparency and composition of the atmosphere, including changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4).
• Change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.
• Change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.
• Tectonics (structure the earth's crust in connection with the geological changes occurring in it) lithospheric plates.
• Cyclic nature of solar activity.
• Changes in the direction and angle of the Earth's axis, the degree of deviation from the circumference of its orbit.

The result of the second reason in this list is the periodic increase and decrease in the area of ​​the Sahara desert.

• Volcanism.
• Human activities that change the environment and affect the climate.

The main problems of the latter factor are: the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere growing due to fuel combustion, aerosols that affect its cooling, industrial animal husbandry and the cement industry.

Other factors such as animal husbandry, land use, depletion of the ozone layer and deforestation are also believed to influence the climate. This influence is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere.

Global warming

Changes in the current climate (in the direction of warming) are called global warming. It can be said that global warming this is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of "modern global climate change." Global warming is one of the instance-rich set of faces "climate change on the planet", which is to increase average annual temperature Earth's climate system. It causes a whole series of troubles for humanity: this is the melting of glaciers, and the rise in the level of the World Ocean, and in general temperature anomalies.

Global warming is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of "modern global climate change" Ecocosm

Since the 1970s, at least 90% of the warming energy has been stored in the ocean. Despite the dominant role of the ocean in heat storage, the term "global warming" is often used to refer to an increase in the average air temperature near the surface of the land and ocean. Humans can influence global warming by not allowing the average temperature to exceed 2 degrees Celsius, which is determined to be critical for an environment suitable for humans. With an increase in temperature by this value, the Earth's biosphere is threatened with irreversible consequences, which, according to the international scientific community, can be stopped by reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

By 2100, according to scientists, some countries will turn into uninhabitable territories, these are countries such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and other Middle East countries.

Climate change and Russia

For Russia, the annual damage from the impact of hydrometeorological phenomena is 30-60 million rubles. The average air temperature at the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (from about 1750) by 0.7 ° C. There are not spontaneous climate changes - this is an alternation of cool-wet and warm-dry periods in the range of 35 - 45 years (put forward by scientists E. A. Brikner) and spontaneous climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases due to economic activity, that is, the heating effect of carbon dioxide. Moreover, many scientists have come to the consensus that greenhouse gases have played a significant role in most climate changes, and human emissions of carbon dioxide have already triggered significant global warming.

The scientific understanding of the causes of global warming is becoming more and more definite over time. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) stated that there is a 90% chance that most of the temperature change is due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activities. In 2010, this conclusion was confirmed by the academies of sciences of the main industrial countries. It should be added that the results of rising global temperatures are sea level rise, changes in the amount and nature of precipitation, and an increase in deserts.

Arctic

It's no secret that warming is most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. The temperature of the permafrost layer in the Arctic for 50 years has risen from -10 to -5 degrees.

Depending on the time of year, the area of ​​the Arctic ice cover also changes. Its maximum value falls on the end of February - beginning of April, and the minimum - in September. During these periods, “benchmarks” are recorded.

National Aeronautics and Research Administration outer space(NASA) began satellite observation of the Arctic in 1979. Before 2006, the ice cover was decreasing by an average of 3.7% per decade. But in September 2008 there was a record jump: the area decreased by 57,000 sq. kilometers in one year, which in a ten-year perspective gave a 7.5% decrease.

As a result, in every part of the Arctic and in every season, the extent of ice is now much lower than it was in the 1980s and 1990s.

Other consequences

Other impacts of warming include: increased frequency of extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts and rainstorms; ocean acidification; extinction of biological species due to changes in temperature. Significant impacts on humankind include the threat to food security due to negative impacts on crop yields (especially in Asia and Africa) and the loss of human habitat due to rising sea levels. The increased amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will acidify the ocean.

Opposition policy

The policy of combating global warming includes the idea of ​​mitigating it by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adapting to its impact. In the future, geological engineering will become possible. It is believed that in order to prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions until 2100 should be at least 6.3%.

This means that, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, on the other hand, to switch to alternative energy sources that are appropriate. geographic location. Several sources of energy are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - the sun, wind, tides, low tides.

December 12, 2015 at world conference UN Climate Change in Paris 195 delegations from around the world have approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

Global warming effects map

AT modern world more and more humanity is concerned about the issue of global climate change on Earth. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, a sharp warming began to be observed. The number of winters with very low temperatures has significantly decreased, and the average surface air temperature has increased by 0.7 °C. The climate has changed naturally over millions of years. Now these processes are happening much faster. It should be borne in mind that global climate change can lead to dangerous consequences for all mankind. We will talk further about what factors provoke climate change and what the consequences may be.

Earth's climate

The climate on Earth was not constant. It has changed over the years. Changing dynamic processes on the Earth, the influence of external influences, solar radiation on the planet has led to climate change.

We know from school that the climate on our planet is divided into several types. Namely, there are four climatic zones:

• Equatorial.
• Tropical.
• Moderate.
• Polar.

Each type has specific value parameters:

• Temperatures.
• The amount of precipitation in winter and summer.

It is also known that the climate significantly affects the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as the soil and water regime. It depends on what kind of climate prevails in a given region, which crops can be grown in the fields and in subsidiary farms. The resettlement of people, the development of agriculture, the health and life of the population, as well as the development of industry and energy are inextricably linked.

Any climate change significantly affects our lives. Consider how the climate can change.

Manifestations of a changing climate

Global climate change manifests itself in deviations of weather indicators from long-term values ​​over a long period of time. This includes not only changes in temperatures, but also the frequency of weather events that are outside the normal range, but are considered extreme.

There are processes on Earth that directly provoke all sorts of changes. climatic conditions and also indicate to us that global climate change is taking place.

It is worth noting that climate change on the planet is currently happening very quickly. Thus, the planetary temperature has risen by half a degree in only some half a century.

What factors influence the climate

Based on the processes listed above, which indicate climate change, several factors can be identified that affect these processes:

• Change of orbit and change in the inclination of the Earth.
• A decrease or increase in the amount of heat in the depths of the ocean.
• Change in the intensity of solar radiation.
• Changes in the relief and location of continents and oceans, as well as changes in their size.
• Changing the composition of the atmosphere, a significant increase in the amount of greenhouse gases.
• Change in the albedo of the earth's surface.

All these factors influence the climate of the planet. Climate change also occurs for a number of reasons, which can be natural and anthropogenic in nature.

Causes that provoke a change in climatic conditions

Consider what causes of climate change are considered by scientists around the world.

1. Radiation coming from the Sun. Scientists believe that the changing activity of the hottest star may be one of the main causes of climate change. The sun develops and from the young cold it slowly passes into the aging stage. Solar activity was one of the causes of the onset of the ice age, as well as periods of warming.
2. Greenhouse gases. They provoke a rise in temperature in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The main greenhouse gases are:

3. Change in the Earth's orbit leads to a change, redistribution of solar radiation on the surface. Our planet is affected by the attraction of the moon and other planets.

4. The impact of volcanoes. It is as follows:

• Environmental impact of volcanic products.
• The impact of gases, ash on the atmosphere, as a consequence on the climate.
• The influence of ash and gases on snow, ice on the peaks, which leads to mudflows, avalanches, floods.

Passively degassing volcanoes have a global impact on the atmosphere, as does an active eruption. It can cause a global decrease in temperatures, and as a result - crop failure or drought.

Human activity is one of the causes of global climate change

Scientists have long found main reason climate warming. This is an increase in greenhouse gases that are emitted and accumulate in the atmosphere. As a result, the ability of terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems to absorb carbon dioxide as it grows in the atmosphere decreases.

Human activities affecting global climate change:

Scientists, based on their research, concluded that if natural causes influenced the climate, the temperature on earth would be lower. It is human influence that contributes to the increase in temperature, which leads to global climate change.

Having considered the causes of climate change, let's move on to the consequences of such processes.

Are there positive sides global warming.

Seeking benefits in a changing climate

Considering how much progress has been made, increasing temperatures can be used to increase crop yields. At the same time creating favorable conditions for them. But this will be possible only in zones with a temperate climate.

The advantages of the greenhouse effect include an increase in the productivity of natural forest biogeocenoses.

Global impacts of climate change

What will be the consequences on a global scale? Scientists believe that:

Earth's climate change will have a significant impact on human health. The number of cardiovascular and other diseases may increase.

• A decrease in food production can lead to starvation, especially for the poor.
• The problem of global climate change, of course, will also affect the political issue. Possible intensification of conflicts over the right to own sources of fresh water.

At present, we can already observe some of the effects of climate change. How will the climate on our planet continue to change?

Predictions for the development of global climate change

Experts believe that there may be several scenarios for the development of global changes.

1. Global changes, namely the rise in temperature, will not be abrupt. Earth has a moving atmosphere, thermal energy due to movement air masses distributed throughout the planet. The oceans store more heat than the atmosphere. On such a large planet with its complex system, change cannot happen too quickly. It will take millennia for significant change.
2. Rapid global warming. This scenario is considered much more often. The temperature has increased over the last century by half a degree, the amount of carbon dioxide has increased by 20%, and methane by 100%. The melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice. The water level in the oceans and seas will rise significantly. The number of cataclysms on the planet will increase. The amount of precipitation on Earth will be unevenly distributed, which will increase the areas affected by drought.
3. In some parts of the Earth, warming will be replaced by a short-term cooling. Scientists have calculated such a scenario, based on the fact that the warm Gulf Stream has become 30% slower and can completely stop if the temperature rises by a couple of degrees. This could be reflected in severe cooling in northern Europe, as well as in the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and northern regions European part of Russia. But this is possible only for a short period of time, and then warming will return to Europe. And everything will develop according to 2 scenarios.
4. Global warming will be replaced by global cooling. This is possible when not only the Gulf Stream stops, but also other ocean currents. This is fraught with the onset of a new ice age.
5. The worst scenario is a greenhouse disaster. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will contribute to an increase in temperature. This will lead to the fact that carbon dioxide from the world's oceans will begin to pass into the atmosphere. carbonate will decompose sedimentary rocks with an even greater release of carbon dioxide, which will lead to an even greater increase in temperature and the decomposition of carbonate rocks in deeper layers. Glaciers will melt rapidly, while reducing the Earth's albedo. The amount of methane will increase, and the temperature will rise, which will lead to disaster. An increase in temperature on earth by 50 degrees will lead to the death of human civilization, and by 150 degrees it will cause the death of all living organisms.

Global climate change of the Earth, as we see, can be a danger to all mankind. Therefore, it is necessary to pay great attention this issue. It is necessary to study how we can reduce human influence on these global processes.

Climate change in Russia

Global climate change in Russia cannot fail to affect all regions of the country. It will reflect both positively and negatively. The residential zone will move closer to the north. Heating costs will be significantly reduced, and the transportation of goods along the Arctic coast on large rivers will be simplified. In the northern regions, the melting of snow in areas where there was permafrost can lead to serious damage to communications and buildings. Migration will begin. Already for last years the number of such phenomena as drought, storm wind, heat, floods, severe cold has significantly increased. It is not possible to say specifically how warming will affect different industries. The essence of climate change must be studied comprehensively. It is important to reduce the impact of human activities on our planet. More on this later.

How to avoid disaster?

As we saw earlier, the consequences of global climate change can be simply catastrophic. Humanity should already understand that we are able to stop the approaching catastrophe. What needs to be done to save our planet:

Global climate change cannot be allowed to get out of control.

big global community at the UN conference on climate change, adopted the UN Framework Convention (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). What a pity that some countries put their well-being above solving the issues of global climate change.

The international scientific community has a huge responsibility to determine the trends of climate change in the future and to develop the main directions of the consequences of this change will save humanity from catastrophic consequences. And the adoption of costly measures without scientific justification will lead to huge economic losses. The problems of climate change concern all mankind, and they must be addressed together.

Introduction

1. Causes of climate change

2. The concept and essence of the greenhouse effect

3. Global warming and human impact

4. Consequences of global warming

5. Measures needed to prevent global warming

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for this, experts say. But many factors influencing climate change have not yet been studied, and others have not been studied at all.

Some dry places in Africa have become even drier over the past 25 years. Rare lakes that bring water to people dry up. The sandy winds are getting stronger. The rains stopped there back in the 1970s. The problem of drinking water is becoming more and more acute. According to computer models, such areas will continue to dry out and become completely uninhabitable.

Coal mining is spread all over the planet. A huge amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is released into the atmosphere when coal is burned. As developing countries follow in the footsteps of their industrial neighbors, CO 2 will double during the 21st century.

Most experts, studying the complexity of the Earth's climate system, associate the increase in global temperature and future climate change with an increase in the level of CO 2 in the atmospheric air.

Life has thrived on the planet for about four billion years. During this time, climate fluctuations were radical, from an ice age - lasting 10,000 years - to an era of rapid warming. With each change, an indefinite number of species of life forms changed, evolved and survived. Others have weakened or simply died out.

Now many experts believe that humanity endangers the world ecological system due to global warming, caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. Evaporation of civilization products in the form of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), retained enough reflected heat from the earth's surface to increase the average temperature at the earth's surface by half a degree Celsius during the 20th century. If this direction of modern industry continues, then the climate system will change everywhere - the melting of ice, the rise in the level of the World Ocean, the destruction of plants by droughts, the transformation of areas into deserts, the movement of green areas.

But this may not be the case. The climate on the planet depends on a combination of many factors interacting individually with each other and in complex ways that are not yet fully understood. It is possible that the warming observed over the past century was due to natural fluctuations, despite the fact that its rates significantly exceeded those observed over the past ten centuries. Moreover, computer simulations can be inaccurate.

However, in 1995, after years of intensive study international Conference on Climate Change, sponsored by the United Nations, tentatively concluded that "much evidence suggests that human impacts on the global climate are enormous." The extent of these influences, as experts note, is unknown, since a key factor has not been determined, including the degree of influence of clouds and oceans on global temperature changes. It may take a decade or more of additional research to rule out these uncertainties.

In the meantime, much is already known. And although the specifics of the circumstances of human economic activity remain unclear, our ability to change the composition of the atmosphere is indisputable.

The purpose of this work is to study the problem of climate change on Earth.

Tasks of this work:

1. study the causes of climate change;

2. consider the concept and essence of the greenhouse effect;

3. define the concept of "global warming" and show the impact of humanity on it;

4. show the consequences awaiting humanity as a result of global warming; 5. consider the measures needed to prevent global warming.

1. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What is global climate change and why is it often referred to as "global warming"?

One cannot but agree that the climate on Earth is changing and this is becoming a global problem for all mankind. The fact of global climate change is confirmed by scientific observations and is not disputed by most scientists. And yet around this topic there are constant discussions. Some use the term "global warming" and make apocalyptic predictions. Others prophesy the onset of a new "Ice Age" - and also make apocalyptic predictions. Still others consider climate change to be natural, and the evidence from both sides about the inevitability of catastrophic consequences of climate change is controversial… Let's try to figure it out….

What evidence is there for climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is already noticeable even without instruments): an increase in the average global temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and more destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia… (see also “5 Climate Prophecies That Came True”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, there is a cooling.

If the climate has changed before, why is it now a problem?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), with a global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average world temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is about +14 o C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change, which have always been, one more factor is added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the impact of which on climate change, according to some researchers, is becoming stronger every year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driver of climate is the sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.

In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All of these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climatic cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic activity leads to a decrease).

Recently, one more factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the increase in the greenhouse effect, the impact of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

2. THE CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The greenhouse effect is the delay by the Earth's atmosphere of the planet's thermal radiation. The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same is observed on the scale of the Earth: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the Earth's surface, but the thermal energy emitted by the Earth cannot escape back into space, since the Earth's atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays the long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to delay long waves. They are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.

Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small amounts (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's heat balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if it were not for it, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30 ° C not +14°C, as it is now, but -17°C.

The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either the Earth or humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe it our lives.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and a violation of the heat balance of the Earth. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of the development of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases per year into the atmosphere.

What gases are called "greenhouse" gases?

The best known and most common greenhouse gases are water vapor(H 2 O), carbon dioxide(CO2), methane(CH 4) and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most of them are formed during the combustion of fossil fuels.

In addition, there are two more groups of direct greenhouse gases, these are halocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride(SF6). Their emissions into the atmosphere are associated with modern technologies and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration equipment). Their amount in the atmosphere is quite negligible, but their impact on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming potential / GWP) is tens of thousands of times stronger than CO 2 .

Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas responsible for more than 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been noted. However, an increase in the Earth's temperature, caused by other factors, increases the evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere and - to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the flow of energy to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the greenhouse effect.

Carbon dioxide is the best known of the greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO 2 are volcanic emissions, vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources are the combustion of fossil fuels (including Forest fires), as well as a range of industrial processes (eg cement production, glass production). Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the "greenhouse effect". CO 2 concentrations have risen by more than 30% over two centuries of industrialization and are correlated with changes in global average temperature.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. It is emitted due to leakage in the development of coal and natural gas deposits, from pipelines, during the combustion of biomass, in landfills (as component biogas), as well as in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice growing), etc. Animal husbandry, fertilizer application, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year The amount of methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect or global warming potential (GWP) is 21 times stronger than that of CO 2 .

Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its impact is 310 times stronger than that of CO 2, but it is found in the atmosphere in very small quantities. It enters the atmosphere as a result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as in the production and use of mineral fertilizers, the work of chemical industry enterprises.

Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-depleting substances. They are mainly used in refrigeration equipment. They have exceptionally high coefficients of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11700 times higher than that of CO 2. Their emissions (release into the environment) are small, but are growing rapidly.

Sulfur hexafluoride - its entry into the atmosphere is associated with electronics and the production of insulating materials. While it is small, but the volume is constantly increasing. The global warming potential is 23900 units.

3. GLOBAL WARMING AND HUMAN IMPACT ON IT

Global warming is a gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, caused by an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.

According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, and although the reasons for such an increase are still the subject of discussion, one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts the natural heat balance of the planet, enhances the greenhouse effect, and as a result, causes global warming.

This is a slow and gradual process. Thus, over the past 100 years, the average temperature The earth has increased by only 1 o C. It would seem a little. What then causes concern to the world community and forces the governments of many countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Firstly, this was enough to cause the melting of the polar ice and the rise in the level of the world's oceans, with all the ensuing consequences.

And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For example, as a result of the thawing of subarctic permafrost, huge amounts of methane enter the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean due to the melting of ice will cause a change in the warm current of the Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe. Thus, global warming will trigger changes, which in turn will accelerate climate change. We started a chain reaction...

How big is the human impact on global warming?

The idea of ​​a significant contribution of humanity to the greenhouse effect (and hence to global warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but is not yet a definitively established truth.

Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial period (since 1750) has increased by 34% and 160%, respectively. Moreover, it has not reached such a level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly related to the growth in consumption of fuel resources and the development of industry. And it is confirmed by the coincidence of the graph of growth in the concentration of carbon dioxide with the graph of temperature growth.

Others object: there is 50-60 times more carbon dioxide dissolved in the surface layer of the World Ocean than in the atmosphere. Compared to this, the impact of a person is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has the ability to absorb CO 2 and thereby compensate for human impact.

Recently, however, more and more facts have appeared in favor of the impact of human activities on global climate change. Here are just a few of them.

1. southern part the world's oceans have lost their ability to absorb significant amounts of carbon dioxide, and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet

2. The flow of heat coming to the Earth from the Sun has been declining in the last five years, but not cooling, but warming is observed on the Earth ...

How much will the temperature rise?

Under some climate change scenarios, global average temperatures could rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 unless steps are taken to reduce greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere. In addition, periods of hot weather may become longer and more extreme in temperatures. At the same time, the development of the situation will be very different depending on the region of the Earth, and these differences are extremely difficult to predict. For example, for Europe, at first, a not very long cooling period is predicted due to the slowdown and possible change in the Gulf Stream.

4. CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats as the polar ice caps disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear, unable to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth

Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic disasters is expected, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in the level and temperature of the ocean, borders natural areas move north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will trigger the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such a cooling was the eruption of volcanoes, in our century the reason is already different - the desalination of the world's oceans as a result of the melting of glaciers

How will global warming affect humans?

In the short term: lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.

The most serious blow can be inflicted on the poorest countries who are the least responsible for aggravating this problem, and who are the least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures, in the end, can reverse everything that was achieved by the work of previous generations.

The destruction of established and customary farming systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually push some 600 million people to the brink of starvation. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to the melting of glaciers and changes in the nature of precipitation, an ecological crisis may occur.

An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in the ocean level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the flooding of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million inhabitants will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the health of hundreds of millions of people could be threatened by the spread of malaria (due to the increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disrupted plumbing systems), etc.

In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the ice age, but that is what led to the creation of our civilization.

Experts do not have accurate data on what is the contribution of humanity to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth and what a chain reaction could be.

Also, the exact relationship between the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in temperatures is not known. This is one of the reasons why temperature forecasts vary so much. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming somewhat exaggerated, as well as data on the increase in the average temperature on Earth.

Scientists do not have a common opinion about what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change can be, and according to what scenario the situation will develop further.

A number of scientists believe that several factors may weaken the effect of global warming: as temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Others believe that the possible negative effects of global climate change are underestimated:

droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,

An increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,

· The rate of glacier melt and sea level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

· Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of glacier melting has increased by 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of ​​non-melting ice in the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).

· It is possible that human activities have already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater rise in sea level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

· Moreover, according to some reports, global warming may come much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the oceans.

· Finally, we should not forget that after global warming, global cooling may come.

However, whatever the scenario, everything points to the fact that we should stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce its impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It is better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite your elbows later. Who is warned is armed.

5. MEASURES REQUIRED TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING

The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the constant growth of greenhouse gas emissions in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference on Environment and Development, agreed to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC).

In December 1997, in Kyoto (Japan), the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% by 2008-2012 from the 1990 level, including the European Union must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% , USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. It is enough for Russia and Ukraine that their emissions do not exceed the level of 1990, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) can even increase their emissions, because they have forests that absorb CO 2 .

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it must be ratified by states that account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. To date, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries (more than 61% of global emissions). Russia ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2004. Notable exceptions were the US and Australia, which contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol.

In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change.

Here is some of them:

1. Reduce the burning of fossil fuels

Today, 80% of our energy comes from fossil fuels, the burning of which is the main source of greenhouse gases.

2. Wider use of renewable energy sources.

Solar and wind energy, biomass and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative energy sources is becoming a key factor for long-term sustainable development humanity.

3. Stop destroying ecosystems!

All attacks on untouched ecosystems must be stopped. Natural ecosystems absorb CO 2 and are an important element in maintaining CO 2 balance. Forests are especially good at this. But in many regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at a catastrophic rate.

4. Reduce energy losses in the production and transportation of energy

The transition from large-scale energy (HPP, CHP, NPP) to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over a long distance, up to 50% of energy can be lost along the way!

5. Use new energy efficient technologies in the industry

At the moment, the efficiency of most of the technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new energy-efficient production technologies.

6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and residential sectors.

Regulations should be adopted requiring the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the construction of new buildings, which will reduce energy consumption in homes by several times.

7. New laws and incentives.

Laws should be enacted to impose higher taxes on businesses that exceed CO2 emission limits and provide tax incentives to producers of renewable energy and energy efficient products. Redirect financial flows to the development of these technologies and industries.

8. New ways to move

Today, in big cities, vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. It is necessary to encourage the use of new environmentally friendly modes of transport, to support public transport, develop infrastructure for cyclists.

9. To promote and stimulate energy conservation and careful use of natural resources by residents of all countries

These measures will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by developing countries by 30% by 2030.

W CONCLUSION

Recently, the problem of the greenhouse effect has become more and more acute. The climate situation in the world requires urgent action. Some of the consequences of the greenhouse effect, which are already manifesting themselves today, can serve as proof of this.

Wet areas get even wetter. Continuous rains, which cause a sharp increase in the level of rivers and lakes, are becoming more frequent. Overflowing rivers flood coastal settlements, forcing residents to leave their homes for their lives.

Intense rains took place in March 1997 in the United States. Many people died, the damage was estimated at 400 million dollars. Such continuous precipitation becomes more intense and is caused by global warming. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and Europe already has much more moisture in its atmosphere than it did 25 years ago. Where will the new rains fall? Experts say areas prone to flooding should prepare for new disasters.

In contrast, dry areas have become even more arid. The world is experiencing droughts as intense as have not been observed for 69 years. Drought destroys corn fields in America. In 1998, corn, which usually reaches two meters or more, has grown only to the waist of a person.

However, despite these natural warnings, humanity does not take measures to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. If humanity continues to behave so irresponsibly towards its planet, then it is not known what other disasters it will turn into.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Barlund K., Klein G. "Medieval" diseases of modern Europe. - M. 2003. - 199 p.;

2. Bobylev S.N., Gritsevich I.G. Global climate change and economic development. - M.: UNEP, 2005. - 64 p.;

3. Drozdov O.A., Arapov P.P., Lugina K.M., Mosolova G.I. On the peculiarities of the climate during the warming of the last centuries // Tez. report Vseross. scientific conf. Kazan. 2000. S. 24-26;

4. Kondratiev K.Ya. Global changes at the turn of the millennium // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2000. S. 29-37;

5. Lavrov S.B. Global problems modernity. - St. Petersburg: Prospect, 2000. - 341 p.;

6. K. S. Losev, V. G. Gorshkov, and K. Ya. Problems of ecology of Russia - M.: VINITI, 2001. - 247 p.;

7. Mazurov G.I., Vishnyakova T.V., Akselevich V.I. Is the Earth's climate changing? // Materials of the International. scientific and practical. conf. Permian. 2002. S. 57-60;

8. Order J. Global ecology. - M.: Mir, 1999 - 377 p.

Introduction

As a result of studying the materials of meteorological observations carried out in all areas the globe, it is established that the climate is not constant, but subject to certain changes. Started at the end of the 19th century. warming especially intensified in the 1920s and 30s, but then a slow cooling began, which stopped in the 1960s.

Studies by geologists of sedimentary deposits of the earth's crust have shown that great climate changes have occurred in past epochs. Since these changes were due to natural processes, they are called natural.

Along with natural factors, global climate conditions are increasingly influenced by human economic activity .

The purpose of this work is to study climate change on planet Earth.

To achieve this goal, several tasks are required:

)To study the factors influencing climate change.

)Study the effects of climate change.

)Study climate change in the territory Russian Federation.

)Consider how climate change can affect humans.

1. Climate and factors influencing climate change

Climate changes are long-term (over 10 years) directed or rhythmic changes in climatic conditions on the Earth as a whole or in its large regions. Climate change is directly or indirectly caused by human activities that cause changes in the composition of the global atmosphere.

Climatic changes can be divided with a certain degree of conditionality into long-term, short-term and fast, occurring in a very short period compared to the characteristic time of changes in the socio-economic sphere. Each of them has its own reasons, regarding which there are a number of hypotheses.

Some of the existing hypotheses are based on the possible influence of extraterrestrial factors on the climate system: changes in the activity of the Sun, features of the Earth's orbital motion, the fall of meteorites, a change in the position of the Earth's magnetic poles. Others try to explain the instability of the climate system by the action of internal causes, such as: an increase in volcanic activity, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, shifts in the system of ocean currents, natural oscillations of the atmospheric circulation.

The sun is the main force that controls the climate system and even the smallest changes in the amount of solar energy can have serious consequences for the earth's climate. For many years, scientists believed that solar activity remained constant. However, satellite observations cast doubt on the validity of this hypothesis.

Solar activity waxes and wanes every eleven years (or twenty-two years, according to some experts) of the solar cycle. There may be other important solar cycles. In order to assess their influence, it is necessary to conduct continuous measurements of solar activity and study traces of the interaction between solar activity and climate over the past centuries and millennia.

Astronomical factors: In the middle of the 20th century, scientists found that over millions of years, the most powerful influence on the Earth's climate was exerted by periodic changes in its orbit. Over the past 3 million years, regular fluctuations in the amount of sunlight hitting the planet's surface have triggered a series of ice ages punctuated by short, warm interglacial intervals.

One of the most famous and generally accepted theories of periodic icing of the Earth is an astronomical model proposed in 1920 by the Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milanković. According to the Milankovitch hypothesis, the hemispheres of the Earth, as a result of changes in its movement, can receive less or more solar radiation, which is reflected in global temperature.

Over millions of years, many climatic cycles have changed. At the end of the last ice age, the ice cover that for 100 thousand years fettered the north of Europe and North America, began to decrease and disappeared 6 thousand years ago. Many scientists believe that the development of civilization falls mainly on a warm period between ice ages.

The atmosphere heats up, absorbing both solar radiation and the earth's own radiation. The heated atmosphere radiates itself. Just like the earth's surface, it emits infrared radiation in the range of long waves invisible to the eye. A significant part (about 70%) of atmospheric radiation comes to the earth's surface, which almost completely absorbs it (95-99%). This radiation is called "counter radiation", since it is directed towards the own radiation of the earth's surface. The main substance in the atmosphere that absorbs terrestrial radiation and sends out counter radiation is water vapor.

In addition to water vapor, the atmosphere includes carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases that absorb energy in the 7-15 µm wavelength range, i.e. where the energy of terrestrial radiation is close to maximum. Relatively small changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can affect the temperature of the earth's surface. By analogy with the processes occurring in greenhouses, when radiation penetrating through the protective film heats the earth, the radiation of which is delayed by the film, providing additional heating, this process of interaction of the earth's surface with the atmosphere is called the "greenhouse effect".

The phenomenon of the greenhouse effect makes it possible to maintain a temperature on the Earth's surface at which the emergence and development of life is possible. If the greenhouse effect were absent, the average surface temperature of the globe would be much lower than it is now.

The influence of external factors on global air temperature is studied on the basis of modeling. Most of the works in this direction indicate that over the past 50 years, the estimated rates and scales of warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions are quite comparable to or exceed the rates and scales of observed warming.

Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, changes in solar radiation and the properties of the earth's surface change energy balance climate system. These changes are expressed by the term 'radiative forcing', which is used to compare how a wide range of human and natural factors causes a warming or cooling effect on the global climate.

Another obvious cause of climate change is volcanic eruptions. This possibility was discussed as early as the 17th century by Benjamin Franklin. The idea was that clouds of small particles (aerosols) formed during a volcanic eruption can noticeably weaken the flow of short-wave radiation coming to the earth's surface, almost without changing the long-wave radiation going into the world space. Further studies showed that the main influence on the radiation and thermal regime of the Earth is exerted by a layer of sulfuric acid aerosol, which is formed in the stratosphere from sulfur-containing gases ejected by the volcano. Of greatest interest is the effect of volcanic eruptions on air temperature. For general reasons, experts expect temperatures to drop for some time.

The oceans also play an important role in the global climate system. The atmosphere shares a common boundary with the ocean for more than 72% of the Earth's surface and responds to all changes that occur in the ocean. It should also be taken into account that at any moment of time the amount of heat stored in a vertical column of the atmosphere with a height from the Earth's surface to the boundaries of outer space is approximately the same as that contained in a column of ocean water 3 m high, counting from the surface. Therefore, it is the ocean that is the main accumulator and custodian of the energy of solar radiation coming to Earth, which is subsequently released into the atmosphere.

With a huge heat capacity, the oceans have a stabilizing effect on the atmosphere, making it more stable. At the same time, the main parameters of the oceans experience long-term and short-term changes, and some of them are comparable in their time characteristics to changes occurring in the atmosphere.

The current climatic conditions are largely due to the influence of the ocean. The heat reserve in the ocean is distributed unevenly and is constantly moved by ocean currents.

In addition to the constant transfer of heat by surface currents, the ocean undergoes a regular mixing of waters in depth, known as "thermohaline circulation", depending both on the temperature of the water and on its salt content, or salinity. salty water freezes at lower temperatures.

According to a study by Danish scientists, the Earth's magnetic field also significantly affects the climate, and this may lead to a revision of the established opinion that greenhouse gases are mainly responsible for global warming.

According to the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report, there is a 90% chance that observed climate change is due to human activity. A similar hypothesis was put forward back in 1992 at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The anthropogenic origin of modern climatic changes, in particular, is confirmed by paleoclimatic studies based on the analysis of the content of greenhouse gases in air bubbles frozen into ice. They show that there has not been such a concentration of CO2 as it is now in the last 650 thousand years. Moreover, compared with the pre-industrial era (1750), the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by a third. Modern global concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide have also significantly exceeded pre-industrial values.

The increase in the concentration of these three major greenhouse gases since the mid-18th century, according to scientists, has been very a high degree probability is associated with human economic activity, primarily the combustion of carbon fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.), industrial processes, as well as the deforestation - natural absorbers of CO2 from the atmosphere.

Global climate change involves the restructuring of all geosystems. Observational data indicate a rise in the level of the World Ocean, melting of glaciers and permafrost, increased unevenness of precipitation, changes in the flow of rivers and other global changes associated with climate instability.

The consequences of climate change are already manifesting themselves, including in the form of an increase in the frequency and intensity of dangerous weather events, the spread of infectious diseases. They cause significant economic damage, threaten the stable existence of ecosystems, as well as the health and life of people. Scientists' conclusions suggest that ongoing climate change may lead to even more dangerous consequences in the future if humanity does not take appropriate preventive measures.

2. Impacts of climate change

climate precipitation ecosystem glacier

In the second half of the XX century. In connection with the rapid development of industry and the growth of energy availability, climate change threats have arisen throughout the planet. Modern scientific research has established that the impact of anthropogenic activity on the global climate is associated with the action of several factors, of which the most important are:

· an increase in the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as some other gases entering the atmosphere in the course of economic activity, which enhances the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere;

· increase in the mass of atmospheric aerosols;

· an increase in the amount of thermal energy generated in the process of economic activity entering the atmosphere.

Highest value has the first of these causes of anthropogenic climate change. « greenhouse effect<#"201" src="doc_zip1.jpg" />

Figure 2.1 Change in the average annual air temperature in the surface layer of the Earth (1860-2000)

The following effects of global warming are predicted:

· rise in the level of the world ocean due to the melting of glaciers and polar ice (over the past 100 years by 10-25 cm), which, in turn, results in flooding of territories, displacement of the boundaries of swamps and lowland areas, increased salinity of water in the mouths of rivers, as well as potential loss of a person's place of residence;

· change in precipitation (precipitation increases in northern Europe and decreases in southern Europe);

· change in the hydrological regime, quantity and quality of water resources;

· impact on ecological systems, agriculture (mixing climatic zones in a northerly direction and the migration of species of wild fauna, changes in the seasonality of growth and productivity of land in agriculture and forestry).

All of the above factors can have a catastrophic impact on human health, the economy and society as a whole. The increasing frequency of droughts and the subsequent crisis in agriculture are raising the threat of hunger and social stability in some regions of the world. Difficulties with water supply in countries with a warm climate stimulate the spread of tropical and subtropical diseases. As warming trends intensify weather become more volatile and climate-related natural disasters more devastating. The damage caused by natural disasters to the world economy is increasing (Fig. 2.2). In 1998 alone, it exceeded the damage caused by natural disasters in the entire 1980s, tens of thousands of people died and about 25 million "environmental refugees" were forced to leave their homes.

Figure 2.2 Economic damage to the world economy, 1960-2000 (billion US dollars, annually)

At the end of the XX century. humanity came to understand the need to solve one of the most complex and extremely dangerous environmental problems associated with climate change, and in the mid-1970s. began active work in this direction. At the World Climate Conference in Geneva (1979), the foundations of the World Climate Program were laid. In accordance with the resolution of the UN General Assembly on the protection of the global climate for the benefit of present and future generations, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) was adopted. The purpose of the convention is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that will not have a dangerous impact on the global climate system. Moreover, the solution of this problem is supposed to be carried out within a period sufficient for the natural adaptation of ecosystems to climate change and avoiding the threat to food production, as well as ensuring further economic development in the region. sustainable basis.

To reduce the threat of global warming, it is necessary first of all to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Most of these emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, which still provide more than 75% of the world's energy. The rapidly increasing number of cars on the planet increases the risk of further emissions. Stabilization of CO in the atmosphere at a safe level is possible with an overall reduction (by about 60%) of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. Further development of energy-saving technologies and wider use of renewable energy sources can help in this.

2.1 Changes in frequency and amount of precipitation

In general, the climate on the planet will become more humid. But the amount of precipitation will not spread evenly across the Earth. In regions that already receive enough rainfall today, their fallout will become more intense. And in regions with insufficient moisture, dry periods will become more frequent. Figure 2.1.1 shows how the amount of precipitation will change.

Figure 2.1.1 Map of the distribution of precipitation around the globe.

2.2 Sea level rise

During the twentieth century average level sea ​​increased by 0.1-0.2 m. According to scientists, in the 21st century sea level rise will be up to 1 m. In this case, coastal areas and small islands will be the most vulnerable. States such as the Netherlands, Great Britain, as well as the small island states of Oceania and the Caribbean will be the first to fall under the risk of flooding. In addition, high tides will become more frequent, and coastal erosion will increase. Figure 2.2.1 shows that the water level is constantly rising.

Figure 2.2.1 Graph of the increase in the level of water on the ground.

2.3 Threats to ecosystems and biodiversity

Species and ecosystems have already begun to respond to climate change. Migratory bird species began to arrive earlier in spring and depart later in autumn.

There are predictions of extinction of up to 30-40% of plant and animal species, as their habitat will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

With an increase in temperature by 1 °C, a change in the species composition of the forest is predicted. Forests are a natural carbon store (80% of all carbon in terrestrial vegetation and about 40% of carbon in soil). The transition from one type of forest to another will be accompanied by the release of a large amount of carbon.

2.4 Melting glaciers

The current glaciation of the Earth can be considered one of the most sensitive indicators of ongoing global changes. Satellite data show that, since the 1960s, there has been a decrease in the area of ​​snow cover by about 10%. Since the 1950s in the northern hemisphere area sea ​​ice decreased by almost 10-15%, and the thickness decreased by 40%. According to the forecasts of experts from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg), in 30 years the Arctic Ocean will completely open from under the ice during the warm period of the year.

Thickness Himalayan ice melts at a rate of 10-15 m per year. At the current rate of these processes, two-thirds of China's glaciers will disappear by 2060, and by 2100 all glaciers will have completely melted.

Accelerated glacier melt poses a range of immediate threats human development. For densely populated mountainous and foothill areas, avalanches, flooding or, conversely, a decrease in the full flow of rivers, and as a result, a reduction in fresh water reserves, are of particular danger. A clear example of the melting of glaciers can be seen in the Himalayas (Fig. 2.2.4).

Figure 2.2.4 Melting Himalayas

2.5 Agriculture

The impact of warming on agricultural productivity is ambiguous. In some temperate areas, yields may increase with a small increase in temperature, but decrease with large changes in temperature. In tropical and subtropical regions, overall yields are projected to decline.

The worst hit could be inflicted on the poorest countries least prepared to adapt to climate change. According to the IPCC, by 2080 the number of people facing the threat of hunger could increase by 600 million people, doubling more number people who today live in poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.

2.6 Water consumption and water supply

One of the consequences of climate change may be the lack of drinking water. In regions with arid climates (Central Asia, the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.), the situation will be further aggravated due to a decrease in precipitation.

Due to the melting of glaciers, the flow of the largest waterways in Asia - the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, the Yellow River, the Indus, the Mekong, Salween and the Yangtze - will significantly decrease. The scarcity of fresh water will affect not only human health and agricultural development, but will also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water resources.

3. Global climate change in Russia

AT Russian society It is generally accepted that since Russia - cold country, then global warming will only benefit her. Estimated benefits are usually expected in agriculture and in reduced heating costs for residential and industrial buildings during the cold season. However, due to the length of the country's territory and the diversity of its natural and climatic features, the consequences of climate change manifest themselves differently in different regions of Russia and can have both positive and negative consequences. negative character.

Indeed, according to the estimates of Roshydromet, which are given in the "Strategic forecast of climate change in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2010-2015. and their impact on the sectors of the Russian economy"<#"232" src="doc_zip6.jpg" />.

Figure 3.1 Total number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia, 1991-2006

It should be added to the above that global warming threatens to create or already creates such additional socio-economic threats as ground subsidence due to permafrost melting (such changes can be dangerous for buildings, engineering and transport structures); increased load on underwater pipelines and the likelihood of their accidental damage and rupture, as well as obstacles to navigation due to increased channel processes on rivers; expansion of the range of infectious diseases (for example, encephalitis, malaria) and others.

In Russia and Alaska, the processes of global warming are going twice as fast as in the rest of the world. About this, according to ITAR-TASS<#"justify">4. Impact of climate change on human health

A warming climate may bring some local benefits: in some areas, the fertile period is lengthening, food production is increasing. However, at the same time, other areas are subject to drought, the desert is encroaching on the once fertile land, which leads to famine, discontent of the population and the redistribution of resources. Experts predict that by 2090, climate change could lead to an expansion of drought-affected areas, doubling the number of extreme droughts and sixfold their average duration.

In a global sense, climate change is affecting things that are essential for health: clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and safe shelter.

4.1 Extreme heat

Extremely frequent lately high temperatures in Moscow - also the consequences of global warming. During the hot period last summer, when the capital was also covered in smog from peat fires, deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases increased, especially among the elderly. In hot and calm weather, levels of pollutants rise in the air, which exacerbates cardiovascular disease and diseases. respiratory tract. Air pollution in cities causes about 1.2 million deaths each year. Also, during the heat, the concentration of plant pollen and other allergens increases, which worsens the health of people with allergies, especially asthma. That is why it is desirable to spend summer outside the metropolis.

4.2 Natural disasters

Since the 1960s, the number of reported weather-related disasters has tripled.

Disasters associated with the sea (tsunamis, hurricanes, floods) lead to especially devastating consequences, and more than half of the world's population lives within 60 km from the sea.

The frequency and intensification of disasters leads to a decrease in fresh water supplies suitable for drinking. During any natural disaster, sanitation deteriorates, increasing the risk of diarrheal disease, which kills 2.2 million people every year. Floods contaminate fresh water supplies, increase the risk of water-borne diseases, and provide breeding grounds for disease-carrying insects such as mosquitoes. And this is not counting the direct impact on life and health: drowning, injuries, destruction of houses.

Until now, about a billion people suffer from hunger in the world, and 3.5 million die every year. The impending drought is likely to reduce staple food production in many of the poorest regions - up to 50% by 2020 in some African countries. This will further increase the prevalence of malnutrition.

4.3 Infections

Diseases transmitted through water and with the help of insects are especially dependent on climatic conditions. As a result of warming, deaths from intestinal infections, malaria and dengue fever will become more frequent - these diseases are extremely sensitive to climate.

Global warming is causing transmission seasons for vector-borne (vector-borne) diseases to be longer and their geographic areas to expand. Simply put, tropical diseases can appear in areas where they have never been recorded. For example, according to WHO, dengue fever, which is spread by the Aedes mosquito, could currently infect 2.5 billion people, and by 2080, 4.5 billion people will be at risk due to climate change.

4.4 Health effects

It is very problematic to assess the specific damage to health that global warming has already caused. However, according to indirect data, WHO experts were able to do this, and they estimate the contribution of warming to the mortality structure as 140,000 deaths annually since 1970.

4.5 Group of people most at risk

The greatest impacts of climate change will be on people living in small island nations, coastal areas, metropolitan areas, and mountainous and polar regions.

Countries with poorly developed health systems will be the worst off in the face of changing environmental conditions. And the most vulnerable category of people are children, especially those living in poor countries, the elderly and those who already have any illnesses or health conditions.

Conclusion

In this term paper considered global climate change. It has been observed that the main factor in climate change on earth is anthropogenic.

It was also studied how global changes will affect the development of the planet as a whole, and climate change was considered in particular for the territory of the Russian Federation.

It was considered how climate change can affect humans, and what harm climate change can cause to humans.

List of sources used

Eye of the planet [Electronic resource] access is free.

Science and technology [Electronic resource] access is free.

Earth climate change [Electronic resource] access is free.

Climate [Electronic resource] access is free.

Russia info [Electronic resource] access is free.

Vita portal [Electronic resource] access is free.

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