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The leaders of the United States and North Korea are rapidly raising the stakes in their confrontation, making war all but inevitable. At the same time, China has already announced that it will stand up for the DPRK in the event of an attempt to change the local regime.
IN last days the situation around North Korea has become so serious that everything else has ceased to matter. The jokes are over. The world is indeed on the verge of the first in its history nuclear war.
I wrote about how recent events developed in several recent reviews. If interesting - . Today, my worst fears about the situation getting out of hand received some more confirmation.
US President Donald Trump tweeted wrote: “The military solution is fully prepared. The weapon is loaded and aimed at the target. In case North Korea will act recklessly. I hope Kim Jong Un chooses otherwise."
This was followed presidential tweet with photographs of American bombers and fighters "ready to take off on a mission tonight." The hint is completely transparent.
Even the US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley, announced that diplomatic methods for resolving the conflict had been exhausted. "We have nothing more to talk about with them," - wrote she's on her twitter.
The only senior member of the Trump administration who seems to understand the consequences of a possible conflict is Secretary of Defense James Mattis: “We are well aware of what wars lead to. One word can describe what is happening - catastrophe.
Washington's menacing rhetoric by no means forced Pyongyang to turn on the back. The North Korean state news agency KCNA accused the US of "criminally trying to destroy the Korean people in a nuclear holocaust" and wanting to "test its weapons on the Koreans." "The United States is the author and inspirer of nuclear war, a country fanatically dreaming of it," North Korean ideologists believe. In response, they promised to turn continental part United States "into the theater of nuclear war".
Before that, let me remind you, Pyongyang accused Trump of losing his mind and, like Nikki Haley, came to the conclusion that no dialogue was possible under the circumstances.
It seems that this is indeed the case: as long as the parties call each other "imperialist beasts" and "crazed communist dictatorship", it will not be easy for them to agree on something sensible. Therefore, the whole world is now trying to understand what the alternative could be. In short, very, very bad.
Plans for a war with North Korea have been drawn up at the Pentagon for decades - at least since the time of Bill Clinton. But in the past week, they've all gone out of date. According to American intelligence, Pyongyang has ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. This significantly complicates any military confrontation with the DPRK.
Now hordes of specialists and experts are trying to figure out "what if?". If, in the event of a war, one such missile reaches the target? What if ten? And if all 60, as some Western analysts believe? It will not work to hide all people in shelters: a nuclear missile flies from Pyongyang to San Francisco in only half an hour. There simply won't be time for a complete evacuation.
The same rocket will deliver to the ten millionth Seoul nuclear charge in just three minutes. According to preliminary estimates, even in the best case, about 150 thousand people will die in the same second, about 300 thousand more will be maimed and injured, and the rest will rush away from the country. The healthcare system (at least) will immediately be overloaded, wild chaos will begin with unpredictable consequences.
Nuclear explosion over Tokyo, for example, will entail even more gloomy consequences - in addition to the victims and destruction in Japan itself, the whole world economy. Now nuclear weapon scary not only by the actual shock and thermal wave, but also electromagnetic impulse, which will cut down absolutely all electronics in the affected area. And now the world has become very dependent on her.
This development now seems more and more real. North Korea, realizing that such losses are simply unbearable for the world, continues to escalate. Pyongyang has already announced its intention to launch four ballistic missiles medium range to the US island of Guam. This is a real spit in the face of the President of the United States. He can hardly bear it.
If these missiles (or warheads) are shot down (or destroyed from the air on the launch pads), North Korea's response could be a massive shelling of Seoul with conventional artillery. Or a missile attack on Japan. Or something else, but ten times more significant. According to James Stavridis, a retired US Admiral of the Navy, "such a development would almost certainly set off an upward spiral of violence that would be almost impossible to control."
In fact, after the North Korean response to the destruction of missiles, the US and its allies will have to decide whether to start a full-fledged war or not. To start means to endanger at least Seoul and Tokyo with a nuclear strike. Donald Trump will not be able to ignore this.
Another way out is to deliver massive preventive strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities, concentrations of troops, equipment, and military administrative centers. But there is no guarantee that everything will be destroyed. Even Trump cannot risk a million-plus city - South Korean, Japanese or American. And this is another opportunity for the DPRK.
By rapidly raising the stakes in its confrontation with the US, North Korea is breaking the unity of the Americans and their Far Eastern allies. Neither Japan nor South Korea want to be under nuclear strike due to the fact that the United States cannot bear the appearance of a nuclear missile in Pyongyang that can reach the White House. Tokyo and Seoul, in a sense, are used to living with a sense of constant threat, and do not want to suffer because of the sudden appearance in Washington. IN South Korea, for example, now they are even more afraid of Trump's actions than Kim's actions.
Under these conditions, most likely, both Tokyo and Seoul will ask the United States to reduce the intensity of the confrontation and not respond to North Korean provocations. Whether Trump will listen to them is a separate question. According to The Washington Post, he is not ready to make any concessions to Kim Jong-un, believing that this would establish "false moral equality" between them.
Perhaps, however, something else will be able to stop the hot American president. Today, China has said its weighty word about everything that is happening. Local state media wrote that the PRC would "maintain neutrality" if North Korean missiles actually flew towards US Guam. However, in the event that the United States and its allies start a war and try to remove the regime of Kim Jong-un, then China "will be obliged to prevent this."
China's involvement in the upcoming war is a completely different reality. China has ballistic nuclear missiles there are definitely, and if necessary, they will fly to the United States without any problems. As, in fact, the American ones - in the opposite direction. But it will no longer be the Second Korean War, but the Third World War.
Between the irreconcilable enemies - North and South Korea - an exacerbation broke out, which has not been remembered for 50 years. The army of the DPRK, by the way, is even larger in number than the Russian one. And the Russian Federation, and the USA, and China, and Japan can be drawn into the conflict.
BECAUSE OF WHAT CHEESE-BOR
In Wu, few people do not know: the South Korean corvette Cheonan recently mysteriously died in the Yellow Sea. They say from a torpedo. The US immediately launched a joint submarine interception exercise with South Korean partners, and four North Korean boats mysteriously disappeared. All at once (two seem to have already been found). Pyongyang and Seoul have put their armies on full alert, and battle cries are being heard on both sides of the border. The restrained Japanese also broke through: we must finally teach the fans of Juche a lesson - how much can you scare us with nuclear weapons? The voice of mighty China is not loud, but clear: decide everything by political methods - Pyongyang is our neighbor and almost a younger brother. Russia, as usual, preoccupied with the "increasing tension", very timely started large-scale exercises "Vostok-2010" in the smell of gunpowder in the region. And rightly so: don't forget about it. Here is such a gloomy storyline. So have all the fuses been removed? We tried to make our prediction - how real is the war between the two Koreas and is it possible to draw the United States, Russia and China into it?
GRITTING TEETH NEIGHBORS
The confrontation between the two Koreas - North and South - has a long history. Legally, they are still warring countries: the Korean War in 1953 ended only with a ceasefire agreement. Then the South Korean army was defeated in the very first battles, and by September 1950, the northerners occupied more than 90% of the country's territory. Relations between North and South Korea are constantly sparking without a peace treaty. The “small” war of intelligence and special forces on the border along the 38th parallel can at any moment develop into a big war. Military experts have long ranked the Korean Peninsula among the world's most unstable regions. Now let's see what military force the conflicting parties have.
RELATION OF FORCES
North Korea
There are about 1.5 million fanatical fighters in the armed forces (and there is also a trained reserve - 4.7 million people). IN ground forces: more than 50 tactical missiles, 3200 tanks, 2440 armored personnel carriers, 12.7 thousand artillery pieces, more than 1.1 thousand rocket systems salvo fire, about 2 thousand anti-tank installations, 1820 anti-aircraft anti-aircraft missile systems.
Air Force and Air Defense: 1158 aircraft and helicopters, 11 thousand anti-aircraft guns. An interesting detail: 200 pilots are personally subordinate to Kim Jong Il and are ready to perform tasks of particular importance. These are suicide bombers... Naval Forces North Korea: 3 missile ships, 2 destroyers, 18 anti-submarine ships. Combat boats: 40 rocket, 134 torpedo and 108 artillery. About 100 submarines. Nuclear missile potential: tactical missiles with a range of 55-70 km, as well as operational-tactical missiles - 300 km, Nodon-1 - 550-600 km and Tephodon - 1500 km. The number of missiles can reach: "Nodon" - 200 and "Scud" - 500. Intercontinental "Tephodon-2" with a range of up to 7000 km are being developed.
South Korea
The armed forces - 672 thousand people. They are trained by US instructors and armed mainly American weapons. In the ground forces: 2130 tanks, 2490 armored personnel carriers, 4400 guns, 143 combat helicopters. The Air Force is armed with 460 combat aircraft and helicopters, including 195 F-5 and 60 F-16 fighters. IN combat strength Navy 9 submarines, 40 surface ships, not counting guards and landing craft. In addition, 2 divisions marines(25 thousand people). IN Lately South Korea began to buy weapons from Russia (80 T-80 tanks).
WHO WILL TAKE?
As you can see, North Korea has a 2-3-fold superiority in this part. And if we also take into account nuclear weapons, then they are complete. But on the side of South Korea are the Americans, who military power compensate for this shortcoming. Therefore, about the forces that the United States has in this region. 37,000 people are stationed at bases in Korea. with stockpiles of weapons and property. And not far away - in Japan - the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Division (Okinawa) is also deployed.
At the same time, 47,000 American military personnel are concentrated at bases in Japan. Plus, the base of the US 7th Fleet is located in Yokosuka. He is able to immediately form and send two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Korean coast. And this is 200 aircraft, 4-6 missile cruisers and up to 10 missile destroyers. And another dozen multi-purpose submarines with Tomahawks. And about 8 missile submarines of the Ohio type can not be mentioned: they are constantly patrolling there.
In addition, we should not forget about Japan itself, which has long been "grinding its teeth" at its dangerous nuclear missile neighbor...
UNPREDICTABLE SCENARIO
We are trying to "calculate" possible development events. While the results of the work international commission, dealing with the causes of the death of the South Korean corvette, have not been approved, Washington and Seoul have no reason to give a "strong response." But maneuvering a joint naval force off the North Korean coast could provoke Kim Jong Il's fanatical admirals. And a torpedo or a rocket will go in the direction of the "impudent imperialists". This is where it will start. The Americans and their allies will melt the old North Korean "troughs". But the allies will also get it: the North Koreans know how to fight both on the water and under the water. Their suicide submarines will not go to the bottom without prey. The war will spread to land. American "tomahawks", having flown from a safe distance, will smash the strategic (including nuclear) facilities of North Korea, and paralyze the country's administration. And then the South Korean army will rush into battle: the chance to unite the two Koreas should not be missed. Naval aviation will clear the way for her. And the 3rd US Marine Division will clean up the already captured territory. Further, you can fantasize as much as you like, but still the forceful scenario of the development of events seems to us the least probable. Here, in our opinion, there are several very important reasons. Here they are:
5 REASONS "AGAINST"
1 . The United States already has two wars hanging on its feet - in Iraq and Afghanistan.
2. The DPRK army is well trained and will shed a lot of someone else's blood. It is completely impossible to destroy it. The rest of the broken parts will go to the mountains. A long guerrilla war With great sacrifices for the Americans and their allies. Congress will not forgive Obama for this.
3 . The South Korean government, which has long dreamed of a peaceful unification with Pyongyang, is unlikely to agree to "fraternization through war."
4 . The Chinese factor: Beijing is unlikely to remain indifferent if the United States unleashes military operations against the DPRK (it only lacked millions of hungry refugees from a neighboring country!).
5 . The Russian factor: Moscow, like Beijing, advocates a peaceful settlement of the conflict as a united front. This tandem, most likely, will cool the hot heads of American hawks, who are suffering by force "to end the North Korean regime once and for all."
WHAT IS Pyongyang?
Pyongyang's position is unpredictable. Kim Jong Il seems to have decided to balance on the brink of conflict with his sworn enemies. They are trying to corner him. But he is belligerent. After all, the DPRK tested nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching the United States. Therefore, it was stated that isolation (and even more so an economic blockade as a method of punishment) would force North Korea to deliver powerful blows to key targets of the “main enemy” and its supporters. Meanwhile, the presidents of the United States and South Korea signed an agreement on the nuclear protection of southerners from their northern neighbor. Obama added that the United States is not going to tolerate blackmail any longer: "We will make it clear to North Korea that it will not gain respect and ensure its security through threats and illegal weapons." They also want to involve Russia in the creation of an “anti-North Korean front”. But she has her own game on this flank. She doesn't want to quarrel with her neighbor, who, however, dangerously "dabbles" in nuclear weapons. Moscow languidly agrees with Washington, but also nods its head in the direction of Beijing in agreement. How long she will be able to sit on two chairs at once, time will tell. It looks like she is ready to leave the "Great Leader" Kim Jong Il to his own fate...
SO WHAT IS THE RESULT?
Most likely, everything will follow the long-familiar, traditional circle: having exchanged formidable statements and rattling weapons in front of each other, the conflicting parties will find suitable mediators and, gritting their teeth, will once again sit down at the negotiating table. Moreover, Pyongyang is not at all up to the war now - it is necessary to save the people from starvation. And then the United States and South Korea will begin to develop another secret plan to overthrow Kim Jong Il not with missiles, but with the hands of the long-cherished and generously paid opposition.
What threatens the world with the conflict between the two Koreas
P henyang and Seoul ate the dog in quarrels between themselves, as they say. But on November 23, for the first time since the 1953 armistice, the DPRK and South Korea exchanged powerful artillery shelling.
The current mess happened in the area of the maritime border between the two countries in the Yellow Sea, 80 km from the South Korean port of Incheon. Seoul conducted maneuvers of its navy there under the code name "Hoguk", and, according to North Korea, the ships of the southerners fired at the waters belonging to the DPRK. This has happened before on both sides: fire was fired on desert waters. But this time, Pyongyang decided to respond in earnest. And on Tuesday, in the afternoon, North Korean artillery bombarded the South Korean island of Yeonpyeongdo (Yonbendo), located in this area.
The fire covered the local military base and the houses of civilians. According to preliminary data, four people were killed and dozens were injured. About 79 buildings have been destroyed, fires are blazing everywhere on the island.
South Korean howitzers returned fire on the shores of the DPRK. Nothing is known about its results - Pyongyang, as usual, is silent. Seoul sent its fighters to the maritime border area, but they never took part in the hostilities. The South Korean government, describing the incident as a "deliberate and planned attack", gathered for an emergency meeting in an underground bunker.
Both countries brought their troops to full combat readiness. The world is alarmed that if the conflict escalates, it could affect US troops stationed in South Korea. Pyongyang traditionally counts on China's help. Are we on the verge of a new world war?
In other matters, reports came from Seoul later that the Republic of Korea was not going to appeal to the UN with a demand for an urgent convening of the Security Council. Perhaps this is due to the fact that yesterday the South Korean side admitted through gritted teeth that it was indeed the first to open fire during naval exercises in the disputed area. True, in Seoul they claim that they fired not to the north (towards the DPRK), but to the west. But now you can’t prove where the shells flew - there are no funnels left in the sea.
Russian Foreign Ministry asks for restraint
“Moscow received with deep concern reports of an artillery exchange of fire between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea in the Yellow Sea on November 23, which resulted in human casualties,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. — The Russian side resolutely condemns any manifestation of force in relations between states and proceeds from the fact that all existing contentious issues should be resolved exclusively by peaceful political and diplomatic means.
We urge both Korean parties to show restraint, a responsible approach and not allow actions that could lead to an escalation of military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.”
History of inter-Korean confrontation
Until 1945, the Korean Peninsula was a de facto colony of Japan. northern part Korea liberated Soviet troops, and the part south of the 38th parallel was occupied by the Americans. In 1948, both parts of the peninsula declared themselves states - the pro-Soviet North Korea and the pro-American Republic of Korea.
Already on June 25, 1950, an armed conflict began between them: the leader of the DPRK, Kim Il Sung, with the support of Stalin, decided to "reunite" the country. In response, the US pushed through the UN to send "international forces" to help South Korea. Later, up to 1 million Chinese "volunteers" and several thousand "military advisers" from the USSR fought on the North Korean side. The armistice was signed in 1953, the peace treaty has not been concluded so far.
Armed clashes between the Koreas periodically flared up again. But the confrontation has become especially aggravated this year. In January there was an exchange of artillery salvos in the area of the Yellow Sea. In March, an explosion sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan, killing 46 people. Seoul blamed North Korea for the incident.
What could the current political confrontation between North Korea and the US lead to? I won’t talk about military-technical issues, since Pyongyang is still far from the Pentagon’s capabilities in this matter. But recent rocket launches have alerted The White house and carry the potential danger of turning loud statements into real war.
In this case, Seoul will get to a greater extent, as a side that does not want such an outcome, and literally prays that it will have time to hobble Kim Jong-un's aspirations before he decides on the forceful unification of Korea and his missiles reach the United States. So far, this is only a war of nerves: who has better endurance and more patience.
Missile testing long range The recent actions carried out by the DPRK have not been successful, which means that the likelihood of a war with the participation of the United States on the Korean Peninsula is still minimal. US President Donald Trump is unlikely to intervene in a real military conflict over South Korea, but if Pyongyang missiles threaten Honolulu or San Francisco, then a US military response will not be long in coming.
Now, the Americans are using Beijing as an instrument of pressure on Pyongyang, which has its own interests in the region, and not only acts as an intermediary between the DPRK and the United States. There is no doubt that the Chinese will hint to Kim Jong-un that playing the “powerful enemy of the United States” is possible only up to a certain point: you cross and become history. Geopolitical and physical suicide - that's what awaits him.
Truth for mental health North Korean leader no one can guarantee, therefore, anything can happen. If anyone suffers without guilt, it is Seoul. The Kim dynasty in the DPRK has long cherished plans to unite the country under the control of Pyongyang, so a repeat of the Korean War will not be a hindrance to them. It's up to the little things - for high-quality nuclear weapons!
Much depends now on China. Will Beijing convince the Korean leadership to stop provoking the Americans, or will they have to act harshly? In any unfavorable development of events, South Korea will remain the loser. Whoever launches a missile strike first, North Korea will strike at Seoul, turning it into ruins. Help "sworn friend" - the United States will only be a kind of detonator for the coming destruction.
The world economy will also be dealt a crushing blow through the destruction of interstate economic ties and multi-link production and logistics chains around the world. As Gleb Ivashentsov, a member of the Russian International Affairs Council, points out:
“The world is now tied into a tight knot, and economic ties are so intertwined that it is simply impossible to conduct a “surgically subtle” military operation against one country, even one as small as North Korea. There will be a domino effect instantly.
That is why the leader of the DPRK feels relatively safe, pulling the Americans "by the mustache." Trump is, first and foremost, a businessman who does not want to jeopardize the interests of the American business community. Who knows how hard the war on the Korean Peninsula will hit the global economy? Stability in the US is also in question.
There will definitely be consequences if Pyongyang applies the same chemical weapon, endangering the 28,000th contingent of US troops on the peninsula, "hitting" Japanese territories. In economic terms, retail chains in the United States will quickly become empty, ceasing to be replenished with goods from countries East Asia. China can come out in support of the DPRK and then the world market will be dealt a blow, really, destructive.
At stake, therefore, is not just the beginning of a new war with potential victims, but the complete destruction of South Korean infrastructure, the disruption of world trade, the collapse of markets, the involvement of China in the conflict, and perhaps the first since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. combat use nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly, the beginning of the war will come around to many. And after all, this can be avoided if the United States stops sticking its nose into other people's affairs.
As reported by the Associated Press, the US presidential administration refuses to launch a massive strike against North Korea and destroy the Kim Jong-un regime - choosing a "maximum pressure policy" along with China, Japan and Russia. According to journalists, Donald Trump will not give an order to wipe the country of Juche from the face of the earth even if Kim Jong-un conducts another nuclear or missile test - although diplomats have previously said that detonating a nuclear charge or launching a North Korean missile would cause an instant strike on military and government facilities in North Korea. Korea. Agency sources in the White House said that "Trump's advisers considered a variety of options for influencing the DPRK, including military intervention and the overthrow of the country's leadership." However, after weighing the risks and consequences, Trump decided for the time being "to stick to the policies promoted by the previous White House administration." At the same time, a military strike on the DPRK is not ruled out, but for the time being it is being postponed - it was not in vain that Trump “driven” an entire aircraft carrier strike formation to North Korea, each day of which costs hundreds of millions of dollars. Trump is "particularly counting on the support of China and Russia" - for example, that Moscow and Beijing at the UN will support the most severe sanctions against the DPRK, sources told the AP. At the same time, world experts say they expect missile tests in the DPRK either on April 15 or April 25. In turn, Kim Jong-un warned of readiness to respond with a nuclear strike on South Korea, an aircraft carrier group, Japan and the United States in the event of an attack from America. According to Japan's Kyodo news agency, Vice Marshal of the Korean People's Army, member of the National Defense Council Choi Ryong-hye said, "If America provokes, we will immediately respond with a devastating attack, a total war with a total war, and a nuclear war with a nuclear strike." . Also, speaking to the participants of the parade in honor of the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the military promised - "just nuclear weapons will crush the American." However, the parade was not only filled with threats and screams of tens of thousands of North Koreans seeing their "Great Leader". So Reuters reported, and the world media showed the parade of real ballistic missiles for submarines - which Kim Jong-un did not have before. Such missiles, if they do not fall apart at launch and do not fly away into the "white light as a pretty penny", can reach the territory of the United States or Russia, carrying nuclear warheads. However, as military experts note, it is unlikely that the DPRK will be able to produce at least 20-50 such missiles - a similar number is easily "beaten off" by Moscow's anti-aircraft defense systems. In addition, Russian Ambassador to the DPRK Alexander Matsegora said in an interview with Rossiya-24 that despite total control over the media, the inhabitants of the DPRK "know that the US Navy aircraft carrier Vinson is coming here with its escort ships. They know that what Trump, Tillerson are saying. Also, the authorities in Pyongyang know about the strike on Syria and that this strike is a kind of allusion to the DPRK." Prior to this, the Russian ambassador honestly admitted that "the probability of testing missiles by North Korea in the upcoming holidays is quite high" and no one can prevent this - "the personal will of Kim Jong-un" is at work here. This statement came immediately after the North Korean General Staff threatened immediate preemptive strikes on US bases in Japan and South Korea in the event of "a hint of aggression after a [nuclear] test." It should be noted that oriental experts recently discussed with KP journalists options for the development of events - from the calmest to the most terrible. “The current state of affairs suits everyone. After decades of economic prosperity, the South Koreans are not ready for an all-out war, fearing the difficulties associated with it. And Trump’s demonstrative actions are aimed primarily at “bringing China into submission” and weakening the “democratic opposition” inside America itself. Yes and we have been hearing verbal threats from Pyongyang for more than a year. So, I think everyone will again make harsh statements - and remain with their own," suggested Irina Lantsova, associate professor of St. Petersburg State University, Korean scholar, "soft version." "Under the influence of China, the DPRK has already "curtailed" nuclear program not once, but after some time it resumed it again, putting the "senior comrades" in an awkward position. However, today's Beijing clearly wants to switch to a more active foreign policy, and who knows what Washington promised in return - maybe "turn a blind eye" to the annexation of Taiwan. In any case, advancing to the Sino-Korean border, from where Pyongyang never expected an attack, a dozen divisions at once will become a much more effective argument than all previous verbal assurances, "experts say about the option" China will force Kim to give up the nuclear fist. The option that the United States will deliver a limited strike is considered by military expert Andrei Sarven. "It is possible to destroy the nuclear missile potential of Pyongyang by hitting only a dozen objects. But this is not enough, because it is necessary to exclude a retaliatory strike on South Korean territory. Solving this problem requires the destruction of many hundreds of well-fortified objects and thousands of units heavy weapons. That you can’t put it in a “local strike”. Large-scale missile and bomb attacks are needed here, although I think the United States will be able to do without a ground operation: modern warfare allows it,” he says. "There is no point in discussing the most pessimistic scenario - even Chinese leader Mao Tse Tung half a century ago predicted the death of one hundred million people in the event of a nuclear war in the region," experts say about the option "Kim and Trump will start World War III." However, even in this case, there is no direct threat to Russia. First, located on Far East air defense forces will destroy any single missiles Kim Jong-un - if he decides to hit them "all over the world." Secondly, the distance between the Far East and the DPRK is still very far. However, there are indirect threats - for example, Konstantin Asmolov, a specialist at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the media that in the event of a US strike on Kim's nuclear facilities, "the radioactive cloud will reach Vladivostok in two hours." He also suggested that in the event of a full-fledged war, hungry refugees from North Korea would pour into Russia. In turn, Leonid Bolshov, director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Atomic Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that Russian scientists are considering all options, including the consequences of a conventional and nuclear war on the peninsula. "We are analyzing the situation, calculating all possible risks, of course, it is far from our territory, but there are certain concerns," he said. “If we talk about radioactive fallout, then in the Far East the “wind rose” is as follows: in spring, the wind blows from China and the Gobi desert towards Pacific Ocean. Even if we imagine the most fantastic scenario, the cloud will not go towards our country. As a result, radioactive fallout can fall in the Pacific Ocean," the expert concluded. Air China, the only Chinese airline with flights to North Korea, has suspended flights to Pyongyang after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said "the conflict over North Korea will escalate at any moment." The Marine service also shows how hundreds of ships from all over the world have moved away from the territory of North Korea - the moment when a nuclear war on the peninsula will be ruled out. In turn, employees of the Far Eastern Regional Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations said on the air of the radio station "Moscow Speaks" - they are ready for emergencies. "As for the territory of the Russian Federation, the units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations are always ready to respond to possible emergencies. As for the direct measurements of all background radiation, we have an authorized service for this represented by the services of Roshydromet, that is, a network of branches that take measurements, including the background radiation, the movement of air masses," the rescuers said. And finally. According to experts, "Internet users have broken the record for queries in search engines about the third world war." According to them, since 2004, the Internet will reach the maximum of such requests. Why, since 2004 - if a month ago the query "whether there will be a third world war" and similar questions had a "rating" of only 16 points, now it has risen to a maximum value of 100 points.
The leaders of the United States and North Korea are rapidly raising the stakes in their confrontation, making war all but inevitable. At the same time, China has already announced that it will stand up for the DPRK in the event of an attempt to change the local regime.
In recent days, the situation around North Korea has become so serious that everything else has ceased to matter. The jokes are over. The world is indeed on the verge of the first nuclear war in its history.
I wrote about how recent events developed in several recent reviews. If interested - read. Today, my worst fears about the situation getting out of hand received some more confirmation.
US President Donald Trump tweeted: “The military solution is in full swing. The weapon is loaded and aimed at the target. In case North Korea acts unwisely. I hope Kim Jong Un chooses otherwise."
This was followed by a presidential tweet with photos of American bombers and fighters "ready to take off on a mission tonight." The hint is completely transparent.
Even the US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley, announced that diplomatic methods for resolving the conflict had been exhausted. “We have nothing more to talk about with them,” she wrote on her Twitter.
The only senior member of the Trump administration who seems to understand the consequences of a possible conflict is Secretary of Defense James Mattis: “We are well aware of what wars lead to. One word can describe what is happening - catastrophe.
Washington's menacing rhetoric by no means forced Pyongyang to turn on the back. The North Korean state news agency KCNA accused the US of "criminally trying to destroy the Korean people in a nuclear holocaust" and wanting to "test its weapons on the Koreans." "The United States is the author and inspirer of nuclear war, a country fanatically dreaming of it," North Korean ideologists believe. In response, they promised to turn the US mainland "into a theater of nuclear war."
Before that, let me remind you, Pyongyang accused Trump of losing his mind and, like Nikki Haley, came to the conclusion that no dialogue was possible under the circumstances.
It seems that this is indeed the case: as long as the parties call each other "imperialist beasts" and "crazed communist dictatorship", it will not be easy for them to agree on something sensible. Therefore, the whole world is now trying to understand what the alternative could be. In short, very, very bad.
Plans for a war with North Korea have been drawn up at the Pentagon for decades - at least since the time of Bill Clinton. But in the past week, they've all gone out of date. According to American intelligence, Pyongyang has ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. This significantly complicates any military confrontation with the DPRK.
Now hordes of specialists and experts are trying to figure out "what if?". If, in the event of a war, one such missile reaches the target? What if ten? And if all 60, as some Western analysts believe? It will not work to hide all people in shelters: a nuclear missile flies from Pyongyang to San Francisco in only half an hour. There simply won't be time for a complete evacuation.
In ten millionth Seoul, the same rocket will deliver a nuclear charge in just three minutes. According to preliminary estimates, even in the best case, about 150 thousand people will die in the same second, about 300 thousand more will be maimed and injured, and the rest will rush away from the country. The healthcare system (at least) will immediately be overloaded, wild chaos will begin with unpredictable consequences.
A nuclear explosion over Tokyo, for example, would have even more dire consequences - in addition to the victims and destruction in Japan itself, the entire world economy would also suffer a terrible blow. Now nuclear weapons are scary not only with the actual shock and thermal wave, but also with an electromagnetic pulse that will cut down absolutely all electronics in the affected area. And now the world has become very dependent on her.
This development now seems more and more real. North Korea, realizing that such losses are simply unbearable for the world, continues to escalate. Pyongyang has already announced its intention to launch four medium-range ballistic missiles in the area of the US island of Guam. This is a real spit in the face of the President of the United States. He can hardly bear it.
If these missiles (or warheads) are shot down (or destroyed from the air on the launch pads), North Korea's response could be a massive shelling of Seoul with conventional artillery. Or a missile attack on Japan. Or something else, but ten times more significant. According to James Stavridis, a retired US Admiral of the Navy, "such a development would almost certainly set off an upward spiral of violence that would be almost impossible to control."
In fact, after the North Korean response to the destruction of missiles, the US and its allies will have to decide whether to start a full-fledged war or not. To start means to endanger at least Seoul and Tokyo with a nuclear strike. Donald Trump will not be able to ignore this.
Another way out is to deliver massive preventive strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities, concentrations of troops, equipment, and military administrative centers. But there is no guarantee that everything will be destroyed. Even Trump cannot risk a million-plus city - South Korean, Japanese or American. And this is another opportunity for the DPRK.
By rapidly raising the stakes in its confrontation with the US, North Korea is breaking the unity of the Americans and their Far Eastern allies. Neither Japan nor South Korea wants to be under a nuclear attack because the US cannot tolerate Pyongyang having a nuclear missile capable of reaching the White House. Tokyo and Seoul, in a sense, are used to living with a sense of constant threat, and do not want to suffer because of the sudden appearance in Washington. In South Korea, for example, now they are even more afraid of Trump's actions than Kim's actions.
Under these conditions, most likely, both Tokyo and Seoul will ask the United States to reduce the intensity of the confrontation and not respond to North Korean provocations. Whether Trump will listen to them is a separate question. According to The Washington Post, he is not ready to make any concessions to Kim Jong-un, believing that this would establish "false moral equality" between them.
Perhaps, however, something else will be able to stop the hot American president. Today, China has said its weighty word about everything that is happening. Local state media wrote that the PRC would "maintain neutrality" if North Korean missiles actually flew towards US Guam. However, in the event that the United States and its allies start a war and try to remove the regime of Kim Jong-un, then China "will be obliged to prevent this."
China's involvement in the upcoming war is a completely different reality. The PRC definitely has ballistic nuclear missiles, and if necessary, they will reach the United States without any problems. As, in fact, the American ones - in the opposite direction. But it will no longer be the Second Korean War, but the Third World War.
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