This summer, Yekaterinburg is languishing in the heat. After the cold summer of 2014 and 2015, most citizens are happy with such weather - you don’t have to go abroad, because the weather in the Urals is not inferior to resorts. One enterprising guy even figured out how to make money in the heat and.

– But after all, information about the weather for a month is posted on the Internet ... class="_">

- I can not say that they are great. I don't think it's worth it at all. There is no need to mislead the public.

How accurately can you predict the weather for three days? class="_">

- We have a fairly good justification of forecasts. In the region, we have an average of 98% justification, in Yekaterinburg - 92%. We forecast worse in the city because we have only one weather station here. For example, we predict that it will rain in Yekaterinburg. It really goes, but not on Meteogorka, but in the South-Western district of the city. We are dry here. Therefore, we cannot take our forecast into account. Our weather station did not record rain, so we put ourselves a minus. To prevent this from happening, additional weather stations should be installed in the city. We are currently negotiating this issue with the government.

- And you can determine the exact weather forecast for regional settlements. And how to do it - if you do not have weather stations everywhere? class="_">

– When the Ministry of Emergency Situations asks us for each settlement to say whether there will be hail or heavy rain, so that they can prepare and respond in advance, unfortunately, we cannot do this. We, the forecasters of the Ural region, and in general all the forecasters of the world, cannot. Practically now there are no forecasts with good justification based on the calculation of some local weather phenomena - squalls, thunderstorms, hail, heavy rains. We can guess. On the locator, we see where this focus is moving. We can specify how fast and where it goes. But in which locality it will reach its maximum development - this is already problematic. Such accuracy of forecasts does not yet exist.

There is only one weather station in Yekaterinburg - it is located on Meteogorka.

– You said that long-term forecasting is a thankless task. Perhaps you can still say what kind of autumn awaits us? class="_">

- I can say that we have forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, and according to these forecasts, in early autumn, the air temperature will be close to normal. Precipitation will also be within the normal range. The forecast sets us up for average weather. But in fact, we see that we are exceeding the norm, and this is likely to continue.

For us, forecasts for a week, for three days, are good, when we can predict the weather with a good probability. When weather forecasters have good forecast accuracy, no one notices. But if suddenly it didn’t justify itself, everyone sees it. But this is normal, because the demand for our products is so great that there simply cannot be another relationship.

- The proverb says: if the summer is hot, then the winter will be evil. Does it work for us? class="_">

- If we take the law of conservation of energy, then in principle it should be so. But our history shows that this is not necessarily the case. We had a hot summer and enough warm winter. There is no such direct rule. We were also puzzled by this problem, compared, but no ... there are coincidences, but there are no patterns.

What will the end of summer be like? class="_">

We don't see any changes in the next week. And after the 20th, the temperature will drop by 5 degrees, or even by 10, and the rains will not pass us by. Summer will remain, but will be more comfortable.

What needs to be done to make next summer as warm? class="_">

- Wait. We can't do anything. We are not gods!

Poll: Do you like this abnormally hot summer?

• Yes, let everyone be like that!
• A little bit cooler!
• No, I can't stand the heat

Sorry, your browser is very outdated and does not support voting technology

The snow that fell in the Middle Urals and the anomalous cold that did not go away with the spring caused a mass death of swifts in early June. The case in history is not the first and, unfortunately, not the last - the weather in the Urals does not bode well yet: once again a storm warning has been announced. But the patterns of recent years predict a warm July.

Sorry birds!

The beginning of the Ural summer was unexpected for the inhabitants of the Middle Urals: in the early morning on Children's Day, snow fell unconventionally for the region, and the air temperature was 7 degrees below normal. Social networks they were full of photos of snow-covered yards, streets and cars from different regions of the Sverdlovsk region, and the posts were filled with numerous jokes in the spirit of: “There was no spring, there will be no summer”, “Everything you need to know about the Ural summer” and so on. Unfortunately, not only sad jokes were marked by the coming cold, but also by the mass death of birds - swifts.

In many areas, eyewitnesses observed a terrible picture: tiny hundreds of swifts fell dead to the ground. "Apocalypse" was observed in Yekaterinburg, Revda and on the highway near Nizhny Tagil, where helpless birds fell right under the wheels of passing cars.

If lovers of conspiracy traditionally tried to build the next versions of the “foreshadowing of the apocalypse”, then scientists explained the death of birds precisely anomalously cold weather in the Middle Urals. Moreover, the dependence turned out to be not direct, but associated with the absence of flying insects due to cold day and night. “From hunger, swifts quickly get tired and fall to the ground. This is how their mass death can be explained. And this is not the first case with a similar outcome: this happened in July 2014, when there was a prolonged cooling,” notes Nina Sadykova, Researcher at the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The expert says that some of the nomadic swifts managed to leave cold region, flying away to the heat, but some were doomed to death and, most likely, will die. It is possible that the Urals will have to observe the “apocalyptic” picture more than once, because weather forecasters admit that the spring and early summer of 2018 turned out to be abnormally cold.

The instability in the weather is associated with the Arctic anticyclones that came to the region: only in May they passed through the territory of the Ural region four times. Forecasters say that until June 12, the weather will still unpleasantly surprise the residents of the Sverdlovsk region, but in general, summer is expected to be no worse than last year. “During the day the temperature will be 18-23 degrees Celsius, at night -9-14. But throughout the month there will be cold and warm periods. average temperature July - 17-19 degrees Celsius, within the normal range," says leading forecaster of the Uralhydrometeorological center Galina Sheporenko.

ON A NOTE

Swifts are world-famous exterminators of insects, including blood-sucking ones. Seeing the injured swift on the road, save his life: 1) place him in a box (not in a cage); 2) give a couple of drops of water from the syringe to the base of the beak; 3) feed exclusively on insects (cricket, cockroach, grasshopper) 3-4 times a day; 4) it is necessary to release the swift when it gets warmer.

"Shifts" in the weather

The pre-summer cooling in the Urals actually looks like an anomaly. This is recognized by scientists of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who note that this happens once every 20 years. “This was observed in 1999, and for the XXI century it is really the coldest spring. If we analyze on the scale of a century, then it did not break the record for the lowest average monthly temperature - 1.6 degrees Celsius, while this figure is 1.2 degrees, ”says Rishat Khantemirov, Leading Researcher at the Dendrochronology Laboratory of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the observations of the specialist, for 10 days (from May 26 to June 3) the air temperature was 7-10 degrees below the average. But this does not give reason to say that the climate is changing, all the more dramatically. In simple words, it's just a cold spring and a cold start to summer. The weather is changing as part of natural variability as a result of warming in recent decades. “The only thing I have noticed over the past 10 years is that in 2014 and 2016 August was 2 degrees warmer than July. This was not the case before. Whether this is a trend or not, it is too early to say,” Khantemirov notes.

As the scientist notes, July 2018 is likely to be warm - this is another pattern that a specialist in the field of dendrochronology has come to. “I noticed that when the cold March passes, then, as a rule, July happens to be warmer than usual. Who knows if this pattern will continue, but I can’t give other explanations,” concludes Rishat Khantemirov.

the temperature was below normal at the end of May.

Every morning I wake up from bright sun rays! And in my head I thought: “Hurry to the beach! Swim quickly! In summer, the world becomes brighter!

As some forecasters predicted, summer will come this year, not gradually, but immediately, that is, suddenly.

Already in early May, people will change their warm clothes for summer. And apparently they were right.

Now in most of our country the air temperature exceeds 20 degrees Celsius, and in some Russian settlements The thermometer is over the 30s.

What kind of summer awaits us in 2019?

Of course, many are interested in the question: "What will the summer be like this year - hot, dry, or, conversely, cool and humid, or will it just be warm?" Someone wants to know this in order to understand what kind of harvest they can expect, someone thinks about what clothes to buy, and it is important for someone to know about it in order to take a vacation at work in the most favorable weather.

Weather forecasts for the summer of 2019 are somewhat different. Some argue that summer in Russia will not be hot and even rainy. Drought, Forest fires threaten only the south of Russia.

In general, this summer in our country will be warm, however, not very long. And this means that all summer the average monthly air temperature will be slightly higher than the climatic norm. And the summer will be short because, according to some meteorologists, it will become somewhat cool in August in the central regions of Russia, as well as in the north of the country: there will be frequent rains and a cold wind will increase.

But weather forecasters are reassuring – the weather in August will change from time to time to warm. True, the end of August will be cold, even colder than the beginning of this month and its middle. However, in the south of the country, August will be warm, but there may be heavy rains. Somewhere until mid-September there will be sunny, warm weather, unless, of course, short-term rains and thunderstorms are not taken into account.

In the Urals, according to weather forecasts, in June it will be dry and practically without precipitation, in July it will still be warm and even hot - the thermometer will rise to 28 degrees, however, the heat will alternate with showers and thunderstorms. In August it will be warm there, but it will rain occasionally.

According to other weather forecasters, the summer of 2019 in our country will be extremely dry, which may leave Russia even without a harvest. Considering that an economic crisis is also predicted for the country, the picture is depressing: it's time to run to buy cereals and stock up on crackers.

What will be the summer of 2019 in the Crimea

The continental and maritime climate prevailing on the territory of Crimea guarantees a comfortable summer.

The air will warm up during the day to an average of 26 0 C, Water 23 0 С. Mild and warm weather will allow you to comfortably relax and spend your holidays here this summer.

The CenterGeology company began its work on the territory of the peninsula. At the end of 2014, not a simple work was launched on drilling wells in the Crimea, as well as all related work: well construction, organization of water filtration. Having your own source of water is now a particularly pressing issue.

However, people, there are people, but nature itself makes its own adjustments, without asking anyone. What will be the summer - time will tell.

Read the article: " What should you drink and eat in summer?"

https://www.site/2018-05-08/uchenyy_uro_ran_chego_zhdat_ot_pogody_etim_letom_i_v_blizhayshie_gody

"Normal Ural cold"

Scientist of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences: what to expect from the weather this summer and in the coming years

Jaromir Romanov

Today, the Ural weather forecasters issued a new storm warning that on May 9 in the Sverdlovsk region there will be very heavy rains with winds up to 15-20 meters per second. At the same time, in the mountains and in the north of the region, they are waiting wet snow. When on Middle Ural heat will come, is still unknown. Residents of the region call this spring one of the most unpredictable and cold last years. However, scientists say this is not the case. Leading researcher of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Biological Sciences Rashit Khantemirov told the site what this spring better than spring 1898, can the people of the Urals hope for a hot summer and what surprises the weather will throw at us in the coming years.

— Ordinary people non-scientists note that this spring is colder than previous ones. And weather forecasters agree with this: in March, according to the Ural UGMS, colds were set in the region by 2-4 degrees (in some places up to 6) below the climatic norm. And on May 4, snow fell in the cities of the Sverdlovsk region. How can this be explained and how normal is the weather for spring in the Urals?

— March 2018 was really cold when viewed from the point of view of the last 40-50 years. The average temperature in March in Yekaterinburg was minus 7.6 degrees. And it's cold because the average for recent decades minus 3.5 degrees.

But if we take the entire observation period in Yekaterinburg, we can see that in 1898 the average temperature in March was minus 15 degrees. Even in 2013, March was a little colder than this year - minus 7.8 degrees. And before that, similar temperatures were in 1999 - minus 8.7 degrees.

At the same time, the previous March was warm (in 2017 - an average of minus 1.6 degrees) and somewhat before it. People get used to the heat.

The main factor affecting the weather, in a global sense, is the high content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But other factors continue to play a role. Let's say solar activity is at its lowest right now. That is, natural factors should lead to the fact that there should be a cooling. But nevertheless the trend remains on global warming.

- Does the past April fit into the Ural norm?

- April is not so unusual, although it was also colder than usual. If we take the entire observation period, then this April was the most average. And if you look at the last 50 years, it is really colder.

The average air temperature in April 2018 was 2.8 degrees Celsius. In 2017 it was 4.9 degrees, in 2016 it was 7.5 degrees. But in 2014, April was even colder - 2.6 degrees, in 2009 - 2.1, and in 1998 - the coldest in recent years: minus 1.5 degrees.

The temperature changes from year to year, you can see it, but the average long-term values ​​are still moving up.

If we talk about the average annual temperature, then in Yekaterinburg over the past 30 years compared with the first 30 years of observations (starting from 1836) mean annual temperature increased by 2.8 degrees.

Although even the average annual temperature fluctuations from year to year can be 3-4 degrees. Therefore, a person cannot subjectively feel this warming - only if you ask the old-timers, they will tell you that it is getting warmer. And against the background of this warming, normal March and April seem cold.

— Is it too early to analyze any data for May?

- May, on average, is also still below average. Let's say on May 7 the average temperature was 7.9 degrees, and in 1996 on this day it was 27 degrees. But exactly 100 years ago - in 1918 - on the same day it was minus 8.9.

May was cold last year, and this year is starting cold so far. But nevertheless, if you look at spring as a whole, even if May is cold, it will not be lower in temperature than in 2013 (then it was an average of 3 degrees).

The schedule was compiled by Rashit Khantemirov

Everything is relative. What springs were cold! They were below 0 degrees very often. And now below plus 3 in the spring almost never happens. And if it happens, then people complain: “Where are such colds from!” Normal Ural cold. (Smiling.)

The last 150 years have been much colder than the last 30 years.

- What temperatures in May in the Urals can be considered familiar?

- The average temperature for May for the entire time of observation is 10 degrees. Last year's May, which everyone considered cold, was just average. And so in recent years - 12-13 degrees was the average monthly temperature in May.

These 7 days in Yekaterinburg the average temperature is 7 degrees. But this is only the beginning of the month.

- Last winter was also somewhat anomalous: there were few snowfalls, the largest ones were already closer to spring. How can this be explained?

— Yes, the precipitation was less than usual, but again within the range of winter precipitation variability. Especially since they still caught up at the end of the season.

“But this does not mean that now there will be less snow all the time in winter than we are used to?”

- If it is still possible to make at least some forecasts for temperature, then it is more difficult with precipitation. The general trend is that where there was a lot of precipitation, they will become more, and where there was little, they become less. It seems from these general considerations that we should get less, because we have little precipitation compared to, say, the western macroslope of the Urals. But this is such a general conclusion that cannot be called a forecast.

- Is it possible to make some kind of forecast about what summer will be like in the Urals this year?

- The only thing I can say is that I began to compare what summer it was like after the same spring. I looked at several past cold Marches and Aprils - what July was like then. It turned out that the summer was either average or above average.

For example, March 2013 was very cold, averaging minus 7.8 degrees. And July 2013 was above average - 19.7 degrees Celsius. March was even colder in 1999 - minus 8.7. And in July of that year - 20.1 degrees.

That is, in past years, when March was cold, July was warm. So, we can hope for a warm summer.

But, for example, in 2014, July was very cold - an average of 14.4 degrees Celsius. And March was almost a record warm - minus 1.3 degrees.

- If a climate change largely associated with global warming, are there any long-term forecasts? For example, what will the next winters be like? Will they be warmer than the last ones? Will summers get warmer in the coming decades?

- Yes, in the next 50 years at least it will only get warmer. The main factor of action is completely understandable - the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will not decrease for several decades. And even if it suddenly starts to decrease, its impact on the climate will continue for several decades. Even with the implementation of the Paris Agreements for the next many decades, global warming will continue.

The schedule was compiled by Rashit Khantemirov

Already now there is practically no area on Earth where it has not become warm in recent decades. Although there are different rules. For example, in Siberia in the middle of the 20th century, winter temperatures rose very quickly. In Yakutia, they have grown by almost 10 degrees. And in the last 30 years they began to fall. That is, the trend is in opposition. It seems that according to the models, winter temperatures should first of all rise, and summer ones not very much, but in the north it now turns out that summer temperatures are growing even faster than winter ones. There are such riddles, now all sorts of models and versions are being built. Not everything is clear, but nevertheless the general trend is the same - it will get warmer.

- Is it possible to assume specifically for the Urals: when will it get warmer faster - in winter or summer?

- Judging by the statistics, March (by 4.5 degrees over the past 30 years compared to the first 30 years of observations) and December (by 4.3 degrees) are warming the fastest, and July is the slowest (by 1.5 degrees). ). That is, it warms up mainly in winter and spring, and warms up most slowly in summer. At the same time, more and more often in recent years, August has become warmer than July, although it is believed that July is the most warm month.

- Doesn't this mean that at some point the clear boundaries between the seasons that existed before will be erased, and autumn, winter, spring will become equal in temperature?

- In general, this is justified. Since winter is warming faster than summer, it means that the difference between winter and summer is shrinking. But nevertheless, the difference between the average temperatures of December and July 100 years ago was 33 degrees, and now it has become 32 degrees. When this equals, another millennium must pass! It's just that winters will be warmer, so the duration of permanent snow cover will decrease, in this sense, it will probably seem that the difference is decreasing.

What awaits the inhabitants of the Urals in the summer of 2018? Heat or cold, rain or drought? Or will everything be normal? The Russian Hydrometeorological Center has published a probabilistic forecast of temperature and precipitation for the coming summer. What do meteorologists predict? Let's see.

Spring is in no hurry to the Urals, but in May the long-awaited warmth should come. In general, summer is expected to be warm but rainy. Consider the weather forecast for each summer month.

April 2018

Cool weather is expected almost throughout the entire territory of the Urals, the temperature will be below the long-term averages. Heavy rainfall is also expected.

May 2018

May in most of the Middle Urals, as well as in the north of the region, is expected to be warmer than usual. There will also be little rainfall. And in the Southern Urals - everything is within the normal range. If the forecast comes true, then in May it will be warmer and drier in the Urals than a year earlier.

June 2018

June temperatures are expected to be within normal limits. But at the same time in Perm region and part of the Sverdlovsk region is expected to receive heavy rainfall.

July 2018

According to preliminary forecasts, in July it should be real summer in the Urals. The heat is expected, the temperature should be above normal. But at the same time, in the Southern Urals and the south of the Sverdlovsk region, precipitation is forecast to be above the norm.

August 2018

The air temperature in August is expected to be within normal limits. However, again, the Urals are promised an abundance of precipitation.

September 2018

The beginning of autumn in the Sverdlovsk Region and the Perm Territory is expected to be normal, but in Chelyabinsk region September is expected to be cool.

Experts estimate the probability of forecasting at 69-72%.

However, in practice, long-term weather forecasts usually come true exactly the opposite. For example, a year earlier, Roshydromet promised the Urals a hot and dry summer, but in fact it was raining and cool for half of the summer. Let's see how it will be this time.

But what was the last summer-2017 for Uralologists: