This summer is a serious anomaly: an interview with the chief Ural meteorologist about temperature records and an insidious anticyclone. When will the weather be nice in the Urals? Will it be warm in the Urals in summer

This summer, Yekaterinburg is languishing in the heat. After the cold summer of 2014 and 2015, most citizens are happy with such weather - you don’t have to go abroad, because the weather in the Urals is not inferior to resorts. One enterprising guy even figured out how to make money in the heat and.

– But after all, information about the weather for a month is posted on the Internet ... class="_">

- I can not say that they are great. I don't think it's worth it at all. There is no need to mislead the public.

How accurately can you predict the weather for three days? class="_">

- We have a fairly good justification of forecasts. In the region, we have an average of 98% justification, in Yekaterinburg - 92%. We forecast worse in the city because we have only one weather station here. For example, we predict that it will rain in Yekaterinburg. It really goes, but not on Meteogorka, but in the South-Western district of the city. We are dry here. Therefore, we cannot take our forecast into account. Our weather station did not record rain, so we put ourselves a minus. To prevent this from happening, additional weather stations should be installed in the city. We are currently negotiating this issue with the government.

- And you can determine the exact weather forecast for regional settlements. And how to do it - if you do not have weather stations everywhere? class="_">

- When the Ministry of Emergency Situations asks us to say for each settlement whether there will be hail or heavy rain so that they can prepare and respond in advance, unfortunately we cannot do this. We, the forecasters of the Ural region, and in general all the forecasters of the world, cannot. Practically now there are no forecasts with good justification based on the calculation of some local weather phenomena - squalls, thunderstorms, hail, heavy rains. We can guess. On the locator, we see where this focus is moving. We can specify how fast and where it goes. But in which locality it will reach its maximum development - this is already problematic. Such accuracy of forecasts does not yet exist.

– You said that long-term forecasting is a thankless task. Perhaps you can still say what kind of autumn awaits us? class="_">

- I can say that we have forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, and according to these forecasts, in early autumn, the air temperature will be close to normal. Precipitation will also be within the normal range. The forecast sets us up for average weather. But in fact, we see that we are exceeding the norm, and this is likely to continue.

For us, forecasts for a week, for three days, are good, when we can predict the weather with a good probability. When weather forecasters have good forecast accuracy, no one notices. But if suddenly it didn’t justify itself, everyone sees it. But this is normal, because the demand for our products is so great that there simply cannot be another relationship.

- The proverb says: if the summer is hot, then the winter will be evil. Does it work for us? class="_">

- If we take the law of conservation of energy, then in principle it should be so. But our history shows that this is not necessarily the case. We had a hot summer and enough warm winter. There is no such direct rule. We were also puzzled by this problem, compared, but no ... there are coincidences, but there are no patterns.

What will the end of summer be like? class="_">

We don't see any changes in the next week. And after the 20th, the temperature will drop by 5 degrees, or even by 10, and the rains will not pass us by. Summer will remain, but will be more comfortable.

What needs to be done to make next summer as warm? class="_">

- Wait. We can't do anything. We are not gods!

Poll: Do you like this abnormally hot summer?

• Yes, let everyone be like that!
• A little bit cooler!
• No, I can't stand the heat

At the end of the first spring month on the website of the main meteorological service our country has another weather forecast for the next six months. It covers the period from April to September current year and is official for all secure public services. The main purpose of periodic long-term weather forecasting is to reduce the risk of unforeseen climatic surprises from our mother nature. For example, the possibility of drought or an abundance of precipitation is analyzed by departments and enterprises associated with the production of agricultural products, and the risk of fire hazard situations is taken under control by the services of the Russian Emergencies Ministry. In addition, the forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center are also in demand by ordinary citizens, they are happy to study them and take note. What summer will be in 2018 in the Urals - will the air temperature in the coming season come to its usual long-term indicators, what is the probability that the summer period will be rainy, as well as experts' forecasts for the upcoming season, we will discuss in this article. I would like to immediately warn that the Hydrometeorological Center itself estimates the probability of its forecasts at no more than 70%.

What will be the last spring month in the Urals this year?

The May climate situation in the Urals in 2018 promises to be much friendlier and more comfortable than a year ago. A large area of ​​the region will please its residents with warm spring weather with the usual air temperature for this time of year. AT northern regions even a little warmer than usual.

On average, the temperature indicators of this region will correspond to the May climate norms, and look like this:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +5.5 to +16.9 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +5.9 to +18.9 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +2.0 to +5.6 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +4.4 to +16.6 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +1.5 to +11.7 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +6.2 to +18.4 degrees.

Approximately the same picture with average temperature indicators was observed last year. The amount of precipitation in the region, like a year ago, will approach the usual norms of the May period, and in the northern regions of the Tyumen region, it will even lag a little behind the usual indicators.

What June is expected in the Urals this year

The first summer month in the region compared to June 2017 will be characterized by a large abundance of precipitation, otherwise no major changes are expected - the air temperature will remain within the normal range for the beginning of summer, and only in the Salekhard area will it be slightly higher than usual .

The temperature picture in some areas of the region will look like this:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +10.9 to +22.0 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +11.4 to +23.8 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +3.7 to +12.3 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +10.3 to +22.2 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +9.5 to +19.1 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +11.5 to +22.8 degrees.

In terms of precipitation, the north-west of the Urals will take the lead - the climatic situation in Perm and the northern regions of the Sverdlovsk region will basically be the same as in the entire region, but in terms of the abundance of rains it will exceed the average standard value.

What will be the summer in the Urals in 2018 - what will please the inhabitants of the region in July

In July, the Urals expect high air temperatures with heavy rains. In most of the region, from the southern regions (Kurgan, Chelyabinsk) to the northern Ural territories (Surgut, Khanty-Mansiysk), hot weather will set in at the height of summer. This month, the air will warm up to 25 degrees, which will exceed the norm by several points, and only in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and some northern regions will the temperature be within the usual limits.

In large settlements The following temperatures are expected in the county:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +13.8 to +24.0 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +14.1 to +25.7 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +9.5 to +19.4 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +13.3 to +24.1 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +13.7 to +23.0 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +14.2 to +24.5 degrees.

In most parts of the Ural region, a slight excess of the monthly rainfall is expected, and the rain situation in the north of the Urals will be quite typical for this period.

What will summer be like in 2018 in the Urals - what will the last summer month bring to the region?

Forecasters do not predict any serious deviations from the annual norms in this region. Average level precipitation and temperature regime will fully comply with the normative values ​​​​of mid-summer. In a word, August does not prepare any serious surprises for the population of the Urals. During the month, the following temperature will remain in the region:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +11.0 to +20.7 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +10.8 to +22.4 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +6.5 to +15.3 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +10.4 to +20.7 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +9.7 to +18.5 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +11.4 to +21.5 degrees.

To the east of the Urals, in particular, to the Kurgan region and Tyumen, August will bring heavy rains.

"Similar climate change- this is back side global warming medals. What is going on in general? The planet is warming and this process will continue in the future. Additional energy is pumped into the atmosphere. It must do work, that is, accelerate air masses. Accordingly, the more energy, the stronger the acceleration. But where will anyone get bad weather, is difficult to predict. For two years, the atmosphere of both hemispheres is completely mixed. There are no isolated places. We can only say unequivocally that the number of extreme climatic events and their scale will increase throughout the planet. For example, precipitation becomes highly uneven: a monthly norm can fall in one day. Will this process affect the Urals? The question is debatable. To predict what anomalies will be in a particular region, the development of climate models is needed. And this requires a lot of time, effort and financial investments,” the scientist said.

By the way, popular conspiracy theories about the existence climate weapons directed against Russia, Vyacheslav Zakharov refutes. “You can believe in these versions or not. But there is the concept of climate as a physical system. The energy of one cyclone is so huge that it is comparable to a hundred atomic bombs. Humanity now simply does not have such resources to influence the climate, ”the expert believes.

Over time, showers and windy weather will “capture” the Urals more and more often, and people will have to adapt to these conditions. Moreover, it is humanity that is to blame for global warming. Millions of cars and deforestation “work” for the greenhouse effect, while the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreements do not bring tangible benefits, the agency’s interlocutor notes. The forecast of climate scientists is still disappointing. Over the past 100 years, the average annual temperature of the planet has risen by one degree. In the 21st century, the heating process has accelerated.

“Our French colleague, well-known climatologist Jean Jouzel says that if the planet warms up by another two degrees, then the point of no return will come - it will be too late to fight global warming. But there are other opinions that leave the planet a better chance. So it would be nice to define this point of no return,” says Vyacheslav Zakharov.

If you look into the distant future, then the Venus scenario awaits an overheated Earth.

“The temperature on Venus reaches 450 degrees Celsius, the pressure is 90 terrestrial atmospheres. Our planet has the same amount of carbon dioxide, but, unlike Venus, it is hidden in different reservoirs. If we take as a unit the entire amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, then ten times more is found in biota (stems and roots of plants), a hundred times more soluble gas in the ocean, and hundreds of thousands of times more in carbonates and mountain sediments. When all this burns out, and if the temperature rises, then everything burns out, then there will be a powerful greenhouse effect on Earth, just like on Venus. But, of course, these processes will take tens of thousands of years,” the UrFU scientist explained.

Every morning I wake up from bright sun rays! And in my head I thought: “Hurry to the beach! Swim quickly! In summer, the world becomes brighter!

As some forecasters predicted, summer will come this year, not gradually, but immediately, that is, suddenly.

Already in early May, people will change their warm clothes for summer. And apparently they were right.

Now, in most of our country, the air temperature exceeds 20 degrees Celsius, and in some Russian settlements the thermometer even exceeds 30.

What kind of summer awaits us in 2019?

Of course, many are interested in the question: "What will the summer be like this year - hot, dry, or, conversely, cool and humid, or will it just be warm?" Someone wants to know this in order to understand what kind of harvest they can expect, someone thinks about what clothes to buy, and it is important for someone to know about it in order to take a vacation at work in the most favorable weather.

Weather forecasts for the summer of 2019 are somewhat different. Some argue that summer in Russia will not be hot and even rainy. Drought, Forest fires threaten only the south of Russia.

In general, this summer in our country will be warm, however, not very long. And that means that all summer average monthly temperature air will be slightly above the climatic norm. And the summer will be short because, according to some meteorologists, it will become somewhat cool in August in the central regions of Russia, as well as in the north of the country: there will be frequent rains and a cold wind will increase.

But weather forecasters are reassuring – the weather in August will change from time to time to warm. True, the end of August will be cold, even colder than the beginning of this month and its middle. However, in the south of the country, August will be warm, but there may be heavy rains. Somewhere until mid-September there will be sunny, warm weather, unless, of course, short-term rains and thunderstorms are taken into account.

In the Urals, according to weather forecasts, in June it will be dry and practically without precipitation, in July it will still be warm and even hot - the thermometer will rise to 28 degrees, however, the heat will alternate with showers and thunderstorms. In August it will be warm there, but it will rain occasionally.

According to other weather forecasters, the summer of 2019 in our country will be extremely dry, which may leave Russia even without a harvest. Considering that an economic crisis is also predicted for the country, the picture is depressing: it's time to run to buy cereals and stock up on crackers.

What will be the summer of 2019 in the Crimea

The continental and maritime climate prevailing on the territory of Crimea guarantees a comfortable summer.

The air will warm up during the day to an average of 26 0 C, Water 23 0 С. Mild and warm weather will allow you to comfortably relax and spend your holidays here this summer.

The CenterGeology company began its work on the territory of the peninsula. At the end of 2014, not a simple work was launched on drilling wells in the Crimea, as well as all related work: well construction, organization of water filtration. Having your own source of water is now a particularly pressing issue.

However, people, there are people, but nature itself makes its own adjustments, without asking anyone. What will be the summer - time will tell.

Read the article: " What should you drink and eat in summer?"