"Arab Spring": a brief summary

The article is devoted to a general overview of socio-political upheavals in Arab countries in 2011-2012. General patterns have been identified for each of the Arab countries. Forecasts for further developments are given.

M.: Russian Economic University named after G.V. Plekhanov, 2011.

The article is devoted to the concepts of technology in the works of the brothers Ernst and Friedrich Georg Junger. The problem of the relationship between technology and freedom is considered in the broad context of German cultural criticism at the beginning of the 20th century. and discussions of technocracy before and after World War II.

Zaitsev Yu. K., Perfilyeva O. V., Rakhmangulov M. R. and others. M.: Publishing House of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2011.

The manual provides an analysis of the role of international organizations and institutions in the implementation of international development assistance policies, primarily the UN and the institutions of the UN system, the World Health Organization, the G8 and G20, the International Monetary Fund and the institutions of the World Bank Group, the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The contribution of international institutions to development is viewed through the prism of their place in the global architecture of development assistance, interaction with national governments, donors and partners of development programs, and the history of the emergence of development issues on the agenda of organizations and institutions. Separately, the manual presents recommendations for the Russian Federation in terms of developing a national strategy for promoting international development in terms of existing experience of cooperation and interaction with key players in international development assistance policy.

The manual is intended for use as part of training courses, professional development courses for development assistance professionals, or awareness-raising programs for a broad Russian audience in the field of development and international development assistance.

If Russian nationalism did not win at the beginning of the last century, it will certainly not win now. Then he had immeasurably better opportunities to advance to a leading position.

The analysis of modern society, permeated by media, is carried out from the perspective of an ethnomethodological approach and represents an attempt to answer the cardinal question: what are the observed orderings of events broadcast by mass intermediaries. The study of rituals proceeds in two main directions: firstly, in the organizational and production system of media, focused on constant reproduction, which is based on the transmission model and the information/non-information distinction and, secondly, in the analysis of the perception of these messages by the audience, which is the implementation of a ritual or expressive model, the result of which is a shared experience. This means the ritual nature of modern media.

This scientific work uses the results obtained during the implementation of project No. 10-01-0009 “Media rituals”, implemented within the framework of the HSE Research Foundation Program in 2010-2012.

Humanity is experiencing a change in cultural and historical eras, which is associated with the transformation of network media into the leading means of communication. The consequence of the “digital split” is changes in social divisions: along with the traditional “haves and have-nots”, the confrontation “online (connected) versus offline (unconnected)” arises. Under these conditions, traditional intergenerational differences lose their significance, and the decisive factor is belonging to one or another information culture, on the basis of which media generations are formed. The work analyzes the diverse consequences of networking: cognitive, arising from the use of “smart” things with a user-friendly interface, psychological, giving rise to networked individualism and the increasing privatization of communication, social, embodying the “paradox of the empty public sphere.” The role of computer games as “substitutes” for traditional socialization and education is shown, and the vicissitudes of knowledge losing its meaning are examined. In conditions of excess information, the scarcest human resource today is human attention. Therefore, new principles of doing business can be defined as attention management.

This scientific work uses the results obtained during the implementation of project No. 10-01-0009 “Media rituals”, implemented within the framework of the HSE Research Foundation Program in 2010-2012.

Aistov A.V., Leonova L. A. OPTIONS Ñвенного ›› P1. 2010. R1/2010/04.

The work analyzes factors for choosing employment status (based on data from the Russian Monitoring of the Economic Condition and Health of the Population 1994-2007). The analysis carried out does not reject the assumption of the forced nature of informal employment. The work also examined the influence of informally employed status on life satisfaction. It has been shown that informally employed people, on average, are more satisfied with life compared to formally registered workers.

The concept of the “Arab Spring” appeared relatively recently. This expression refers to a set of political changes of a radical nature that occurred in a number of countries in North Africa (Maghreb) and the Middle East in the spring of 2011. However, the time frame of events is much wider. In a number of Arab countries, these actions date back to January of this year, and in Tunisia they occurred back in December 2010.

What started the Arab Spring? The reasons for this lie not only in the internal problems of these countries. In fact, the phenomenon is associated with international events that unfolded in a region that has significant oil and gas reserves. refer to whose consumption is constantly growing. The battle for them in the Middle East and Maghreb has become an important part of this modern struggle.

There are two groups of control over geopolitical space and resources: panel and point. The first allows for domination over the entire volume of a given space, the second - at its key points. In geographical terms, control of the panel type is carried out exclusively through forceful seizure - war. But an open form of conquest today is unacceptable within the framework of following the concept of human rights. Therefore, three ways were found to get around this situation.

In the case called the “Arab Spring,” the analysis leads to the conclusion that all three methods were used. These are (1) the use of limitrophe states in the interests of the aggressor, (2) “humanitarian intervention” under the pretext of protecting human rights, (3) preemptive war using the technology of “color revolutions”. Preemption is a proactive force action, the essence of which is the use of violent measures in order to prevent the potential threat of terrorism.

Such a triple effect can only be called war, and not by any other more neutral term. The Arab Spring became a way to seize resources with the complete suppression of the resistance of their owner and the use of what was seized in the interests of the interventionists.

You need to understand that not a single social transformation in the country is possible without objective prerequisites. Often these include government corruption, poverty, and other manifestations of social injustice.

The Arab Spring was characterized by a “clustered” chain of “revolutions,” which suggests a significant role of external influence on the political processes in these countries, based on the existing social discontent of the people. As a result of the “Arab revolutions,” moderate Islamists came to power. And this is an important argument for the permanent presence of military forces of “developed democracies” in these countries and in the region as a whole.

Thus, the Arab Spring is not a revolution, it is a coup d'etat. Political scientists believe that these events are an “arrow” flying to China, India and Japan, which have Tunisia. Then the “arrow” flew to Egypt, Libya, Syria, the states of Transcaucasia, Central Asia, and Russia.

The Arab Spring has become an important technology in the struggle of the United States and the countries of the “golden billion” against Japan, China, India, as well as the EU as the main centers of power in the modern world.

The term "Arab Spring" has become widespread in the media since late 2010. Since then, as they say, a lot of water has flown under the bridge. Events are rapidly gaining momentum. The events of the Arab world have been forgotten a little. Ukraine has recently occupied the minds of citizens. Let's update our knowledge and remember what the Arab Spring was connected with and what consequences it led to. Moreover, events still seriously affect the situation of peoples in this region.

Countries - participants or victims

You know, the Arab Spring is not an ordinary event, so to speak. On the one side? The media presented it to us as a series of demonstrations, leading in some cases to government coups.

On the other hand, some new technologies were clearly used there. It is believed that the countries of the Arab Spring became a testing ground for honing methods of influencing large groups of people. In total, the peoples of eighteen countries were affected. Among them, the most famous are the events in Egypt and Libya, Syria and Tunisia. These states still cannot “come to their senses.” The whole point is that seemingly harmless speeches led to the breakdown of the state mechanism. In some cases, there was a change of political regime. This in itself is not a reason for chaos. But following the changes, as if from a magic snuffbox, opposition appeared everywhere, miraculously prepared and armed. We can say that the Arab Spring is a method of introducing a hot conflict into a calm and prosperous state.

Coup mechanism

Of course, it was quite difficult for local residents to understand the essence of the “experiment” that was carried out on them. Arab countries are famous for the fervor of their population. This is what the puppeteers, as they are commonly called, took advantage of. Ideas that the country lacked democracy were introduced into society in innovative ways. Social networks were used. Has the number of citizens passionate about such thoughts expanded? like a snowball. Due to the fact that information was disseminated via the Internet, citizens were given the illusion of some kind of game rather than real action. That is, few people realized that their joint protest actions could lead to a terrible tragedy. Let's look at the example of Syria. This state is still experiencing the consequences of the Arab Spring. Moreover, the outcome of events is not as clear as we would like. The fight there is very tough.

Syria

Using the example of this country, one can see where the problems that caused popular discontent were concentrated. The reasons for the Arab Spring are almost purely economic. Syria, like most neighboring countries, has developed quite dynamically. Its GDP increased, democratic processes led to normal coexistence of peoples of different religious faiths. Naturally, there were some problems. Thus, to the educated secular intelligentsia, and it was they who became the main protest force, the state seemed too strict and illiberal. Namely, they did not like the lack of social elevators, the dependence of the economy on oil production, and the high level of unemployment that arose as a result of a serious outflow of the rural population to the cities. In addition, the Arab countries at that time lagged significantly behind the West (and now the East) in terms of technological development.

It should be noted that the first Protestants had no radical intentions. They organized their demonstrations and rallies within the framework of democratic procedures. The technologists of the “revolution” only needed a crowd. The rest, as it turned out later, was a matter of technique.

Transformation of protests into military clashes

The whole world now knows how to organize heated confrontations. This is talked about a lot in our society, and in any country. During the period of mass action, “unknown snipers” appear in the arena of action. They open fire to kill. They don't care who they kill. The main thing is that there are victims. Their presence causes tension among people already heated by mass protest. The media immediately joined in, loudly accusing the authorities of murder. People lose their orientation and succumb to general hysteria. “Certain forces” immediately appear, proposing to engage in armed struggle against the “bloody tyrant.” Needless to say, at this moment, pre-prepared militants appear in the arena of events, defending their own views. In the Arab world, their role was played by radical Islamists. In Syria, where secular power has won, they are raising masses of people under slogans about the “correct order of the world.”

Overthrow of the government

The described scenario itself does not necessarily lead to a change in power. A strong government will simply disperse the hooligans, which are the speakers at the very beginning of events. To prevent this from happening, the international community is getting involved. It, as a rule, represented by the ambassadors of the countries of the collective West, points out to the authorities the need to refrain from an armed reaction to protests. But the unrest does not subside. People are constantly kept in an excited state by information dumps through the media and social networks. The loss of life leads to the government being forced to hand over power to the opposition. This happened, for example, in Libya. This previously prosperous country has been turned into a territory without a strong government, with a starving population. The civil wars in Libya have not stopped for the fourth year. They began with the assassination of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Government troops are trying to contain the onslaught of Islamist radicals, including ISIS.

Egyptian events

When looking at Arab events, it is striking that not everything is going so smoothly for the organizers. The coup in Egypt clearly goes beyond the plans of those who needed chaos in this territory. The fact is that Islamists ruled this country until 2013. By the way, they were chosen democratically. The population in Egypt is heterogeneous. Most voters are illiterate and obey Sharia law. However, the forcible elevation of Muslim traditions to the rank of state law did not please the educated part of this country. In 2013, a coup d'état took place here. Power was seized by representatives of the military elite led by General Al-Sisi. In the fall of 2014, he was elected president of the country by popular vote.

Russia and the Arab Spring

As a member of the UN Security Council, the Russian Federation could not help but react to the events. Over these years, Russia has had to endure both deception and a rise in the diplomatic field. It all started with Libya. After the start of the civil war in this country, Western partners decided to intervene there. They proposed a Security Council resolution that declared an unmanned zone over the named territory. The Russian Federation supported this project. However, the partners used the document for their own, previously undeclared purposes. Libya was subjected to brutal bombing. The population of this country is still trying to leave its territory. There is simply no food or opportunity to earn money. When the Arab Spring reached Syria, the Russian Federation showed firmness. The United States insisted on launching a military operation in this country under the pretext of the presence of chemical weapons there. The President of the Russian Federation proposed organizing an international commission to solve this problem, without needless victims. The issue was resolved.

Who benefits from the wave of revolutions?

Here we come to the most important question. Countries are in ruins. There are ongoing wars in the Middle East, as they say, all against all. It has already been said that the coups had organizers. What is their purpose? Who came up with the idea of ​​plunging a huge number of people into hopeless and hopeless poverty and horror? Here it is necessary to return to economic issues. The fact is that all these states are located in oil-bearing territories. Black gold mining forms the basis of their economy. But why buy if you can just steal?

Inviolability of the petrodollar

This is what our Western partners decided. For example, Muammar Gaddafi suggested that oil-producing countries leave dollar dependence, that is, trade resources for a different currency. I paid for this. Uncle Sam did not like this idea. After all, the basis of US wealth is the dollar, which is directly linked to oil. In the world, it was customary to conduct all transactions on black gold in this currency. In simple terms, the United States receives double benefits from every transaction. After all, every barrel paid for in dollars brings profit to the hegemon’s budget. No matter what Western experts say, they do not answer the questions of redistribution of profits from oil production in regions captured by Islamists. According to some reports, the price of a smuggled barrel is three times lower than the exchange price.

Lessons from the Arab Spring

This topic does not leave the pages of the media; it is constantly studied and discussed by experts in various fields. To put it briefly, no country with natural resources can feel safe. The manual, as time has shown, works in any region, regardless of mentality. The organizer of the riots wisely takes advantage of the contradictions existing in society. Based on them, they conduct harsh, comprehensive propaganda. People are encouraged to take to the streets to demand change from the authorities. Each case has its own nuances. But this is a matter of technology, to come up with appropriate slogans, to organize radical groups.

There are prerequisites in any society. But since the method of instigating the people has been revealed, it is necessary to come up with ways to counter it. Of course, the best option would be to build an ideal state. But since this is not yet possible, then close, constant work with the population should be carried out in order to introduce patriotism and identify manifestations of extremism. Countries with strong governments constantly resist outside interference in their affairs. For example, in Turkey in 2014, the operation of some social networks that spread extremist ideas was banned.

What will happen to the countries of the Middle East?

A huge ongoing war outbreak is a wound on the planet. Conflicts affect all countries to one degree or another. Of course, problems need to be solved. But here the interests of the main political players come into conflict. For example, Barack Obama declares ISIS the main enemy of the United States. At the same time, it is no secret that this organization is funded from the United States. In addition, there are other contradictions in the Middle East. The borders of countries are established without taking into account the interests of the peoples living in a given territory. Sunnis and Shiites live in different countries. They all strive to create their own state. This is the source of armed struggle. Western partners can only finance and arm the most radical of them. And in areas where there is neither work nor food, people have to serve in armed illegal groups. They need to feed their families. This creates an endless problem. Apparently the solution is to stop funding. Otherwise, the war will never end in this long-suffering territory. As they say, the hegemon needs controlled chaos, and he doesn’t mind the dollars for it.

On December 17, 2010, Tunisian street vegetable vendor Mohammed Bouazizi committed self-immolation in protest against the arbitrariness of local law enforcement, corruption and the inaction of officials.

This date for world history is similar to the events of June 28, 1914, when the murder of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, by a Serbian terrorist served as the reason for the outbreak of the First World War. Today the media writes (IS, banned in the Russian Federation), the growth of its influence is inextricably linked with the events of the “Arab Spring” (this is the name given to the wave of protests and related events in the Middle East and North Africa).

The region has not seen such upheavals for almost half a century: overthrown ruling regimes, civil wars, foreign intervention, the expansion of radical Islam.

What provoked the “Arab Spring” and what its consequences are – in a TASS special project.

The price of a slap

Bouazizi was born into a working-class family. His father died when the boy was only 4 years old, his mother subsequently married her late husband's brother. The Bouazizi family, which had seven children, lived very poorly. Muhammad began working at the age of 10, after graduating from a rural school. At the time he committed self-immolation, he was 27.

According to investigators, the main reason for Bouazizi’s decision was a conflict with local police officer Fedia Hamdi. Because the young vegetable seller did not have a license, she not only confiscated the goods and banned trade, but also slapped Bouazizi in the face and publicly humiliated him.

After this incident, Bouazizi tried to seek help from the city hall, but they refused to listen to him. Hamdi did not suffer any punishment.

Unable to withstand such treatment from the police, and later from local officials, Bouazizi went to the central square of Sidi Bouzid, stood in front of the city hall, doused himself with fuel and set himself on fire.

Exactly a week after the incident, mass demonstrations broke out in Bouazizi's hometown of Menzel-Bourzayan (about 16 km from Sidi Bouzid). Protesters destroyed government offices, police stations and cars. Additional law enforcement forces were deployed to the city. As a result of the dispersal of demonstrators against whom firearms were used, one person died, and ten more were taken to the hospital with injuries of varying severity. A curfew was introduced in the city.

After Bouazizi's death on January 4, popular discontent flared up with renewed vigor. Demonstrations spread throughout the country. The death toll in clashes with police began to number in the dozens. Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali addressed the people several times and eventually made concessions - he agreed not to run for the presidency for the sixth time in a row.

“I understand you,” the president addressed the words to the crowds of demonstrators, but it was too late. Throughout the country, the main slogan already sounded like this: “Bread and water - yes, Ben Ali - no.”

And yet, even as protests grew, almost no one expected Ben Ali to relinquish power so easily. Late on January 14, the president abruptly left Tunisia, fleeing with his family to Saudi Arabia.

It was then that the euphoria from Tunisia spread to other Arab countries. Protests and food riots have been common in many of them in recent years, but few believed in the possibility of overthrowing rulers who had been in power for decades.

The Jasmine Revolution (the name by which the Tunisian protests became known) served as an example for others. The Arab Spring has begun.

The first anti-government demonstrations affected Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Jordan, Sudan and even Oman. Later, a wave of protests spread to other countries.

Tunisian experience: failure or victory

Of all the Arab countries that have experienced a change of power over the past five years, at first glance, the experience of Tunisia is the most successful. Despite political differences, local leaders were able to keep the country from civil war. But is it really that simple?

After Ben Ali fled, the country held its first democratic elections in history. In October 2011, the moderate Islamist Ennahda party won a majority of seats in the Constituent Assembly and formed a government, and in December 2011, Moncef Marzouki was elected interim President of the Tunisian Republic. However, the Constituent Assembly was unable to develop and agree on the text of a new constitution and organize general elections. In 2013, the situation in Tunisia was aggravated by a number of political assassinations, in which Ennahda was accused of involvement. This led to new protests against those who came to power as a result of the “Jasmine Revolution.” The leitmotif of the protests were slogans such as “No headscarves, no miniskirts” and “We don’t want beards, we want bread!”

In the summer of 2013, a national dialogue was launched in Tunisia, which was designed to find ways out of the current situation. The Tunisian Quartet of National Dialogue ("Quartet") acted as mediators in the negotiations between various local political forces.

As a result, in January 2014, an interim government was formed and a new constitution was adopted. Parliamentary elections were held in October, won by the secular party Nidaa Tunis (Tunisia Call), and in December a new president, Beji Caid es-Sebsi, was elected.

The efforts of the Quartet made it possible to overcome the acute phase of the political crisis in the country, ensure a democratic change of power and prevent the radicalization of Ennahda Islamists, who retained their place in the legal political field. In October 2015, the Quartet was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

However, the problems of Tunisia and Tunisians are not over. If a year after the “Jasmine Revolution”, with rare exceptions, Tunisians assessed its results positively, now when asked what has changed in the country over five years, many answer: “Nothing.”

“My life has definitely not improved, thank you that we have peace in our country,” a flower seller in the center of the capital Tunisia told TASS.

"Was there a revolution? There have been no changes in the lives of ordinary Tunisian citizens. To see everything with your own eyes, you just need to drive 100 km from the capital. And Sidi Bouzid? What has changed where it all began? Everything around remains the same , if it hasn’t gotten worse” - this is the opinion of one of the employees of the capital’s hotel.

It is not surprising that against the backdrop of these sentiments, supporters of the escaped Ben Ali are returning to politics under new party “brands.”

And another challenge that Tunisia faces is the problem of terrorism. In 2015 alone, the country experienced two high-profile terrorist attacks - the taking of hostages in the capital's Bardo Museum (March) and the shooting of tourists on the beach in Sousse (June), for which the Islamic State terrorist group claimed responsibility, taking advantage of the heavy economic situation in the country, is actively recruiting Tunisians into its ranks.

Interestingly, it is Tunisian citizens who occupy the first place among foreign mercenaries fighting in the ranks of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. According to the Tunisian Ministry of Internal Affairs, in the summer of 2014, about 2,400 Tunisians fought in the ranks of IS, and the departure of about 8,700 Tunisians to Syria (albeit for unknown purposes) was stopped by the government. In 2015, the number of Tunisian IS militants in Syria and Iraq was already almost 5,000 people.

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The effect of the terrorist attacks is obvious - the number of tourists decreased by a quarter over the year.

According to Kuznetsov, the successful completion of the formal stage of democratic transition in Tunisia in the fall of 2014 did not guarantee the country protection from possible political and social destabilization. Currently, Tunisia is not ruling out a new wave of political crisis, which could most likely be marked by more widespread bloodshed than all previous ones. Moreover, we are not talking about the activities of individual jihadist groups, no matter how great this danger may be, but about civil war.

The expert emphasized that there are all the prerequisites for such a scenario:

The fragility of the balance of political forces,

Protest movements of a socio-economic nature,

Terrorist threat,

The high popularity of jihadism in some segments of society.

In addition, the expert did not rule out intervention in the situation by the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which are ready to provide support to local Islamists, since they are interested in the failure of the “Tunisian model” of democratic transit.

Egyptian Tahrir: from euphoria to disappointment

On February 11, less than a month after Ben Ali fled Tunisia, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned as a result of popular protests.

On June 17, 2012, in the first democratic elections held after the overthrow of Mubarak, the Islamist Mohammed Morsi won. The policy of Islamization of Egypt pursued by him and the Muslim Brotherhood organization that supports him, as well as the “brothers’” refusal of political compromises, caused new protests throughout the country. On July 3, 2013, the army announced the deposition of Morsi and his arrest.

In May 2014, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a former military man who represents a “strong hand” for many Egyptians tired of political and economic instability, was elected president of Egypt.

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Al-Sisi had to not only revive the Egyptian economy, but also resolve security issues.

The rejected Muslim Brotherhood is not going to give up; many of their supporters are inclined to join their efforts to undermine the government with other Islamist groups operating in the country.

At the end of 2014, the militants Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem) swore allegiance to the Islamic State. This radical group of about 2 thousand people operates in the north of the Sinai Peninsula. After swearing allegiance to IS, the group's name changed to Vilayet Sina (Sinai Province). It is she who is behind most of the attacks and sabotage in Egypt after the Islamists were removed from power. Police and military personnel are especially often attacked - the number of victims is hundreds of people.

Yemen: from bloodless revolution to civil war

The nonviolent, "velvet" revolution in Yemen began in February 2011.

According to orientalist Sergei Serebrov, in 2011 the thirst for change brought millions of people onto the streets of cities. The demonstrators formulated the slogans of struggle with amazing clarity, demanding the dismantling of the existing regime and the transition to a state based on modern civil forms of government and the principle of separation of powers. The main centers of events were the largest cities of the North (Sana and Taiz) and South (Aden and Mukalla).

However, two months later, the demands of the demonstrators were adjusted. Separatist sentiments began to dominate in the South. In the North, some leaders relied on Islamist rhetoric.

In November, through the mediation of the Gulf monarchies, President Saleh signed a power transfer agreement with the opposition. In February 2012, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi was elected president of the country for a transition period. The new authorities approved a project to create a federal state consisting of six provinces.

This initiative was opposed by the Houthis - Shiite Muslims living in the north of Yemen (they make up about a third of the country's population). The Houthis' discontent provoked a new round of armed conflict - in January 2015, they captured the capital of the country, Sanaa.

The Yemeni President was forced to appeal to the Gulf monarchies to intervene in the situation. On March 26, 2015, a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia launched an air campaign against the rebels. At present, the conflict in the country has not been resolved. According to the UN, since March 2015, 5.7 thousand people have become its victims.

The situation is complicated by the fact that since the time of President Saleh, the terrorist group Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been operating in Yemen. Until 2011, attacks on terrorist positions were carried out by the United States with the consent of the Yemeni authorities; after the change of power, Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation), as well as IS cells that appeared in the country, were opposed by the Houthis.

It is unknown who will fight terrorists in the future; it is no coincidence that the international community is interested in the early success of the national dialogue in Yemen, which is being held with varying degrees of success under the auspices of the UN and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC).

Libyan collapse

Libya as a state virtually ceased to exist after the victory of the so-called revolution on February 17, 2011 and the murder of the country’s leader Muammar Gaddafi, who for decades pacified and kept local clans and tribes together using carrots and sticks.

Before the Arab Spring, Libya's GDP per capita was one of the highest in Africa, which is not surprising, since this country ranks 7th among OPEC members in terms of proven oil reserves. From 1992 to 2003, Libya was under UN Security Council sanctions, but after they were lifted, the country began to attract many international investors, despite Gaddafi’s odious personality. The Libyan leader was criticized for violating human rights, but still did not refuse to do business with him. Gaddafi's claims that he financed Nicolas Sarkozy's presidential campaign in 2007 are still being discussed in the media. However, it was France and President Sarkozy who acted as Gaddafi's most ardent opponents in 2011, insisting on military assistance to the Libyan opposition.

On March 17, UN Security Council Resolution 1973 was adopted, which was used by the West to launch a military operation against Gaddafi. Russia abstained from voting and did not veto the resolution, which Russian politicians later repeatedly regretted. In particular, Vladimir Putin, who held the post of Prime Minister at that time, called the resolution “incomplete and flawed.” The fact is that its text could be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, it spoke of the need to take all necessary measures to protect the civilian population, on the other, the resolution excluded “the possibility of foreign occupation forces in any form being present in any part of Libyan territory.”

The military operation under the auspices of NATO continued in Libya from March 31 to October 31, 2011. On October 20, Libyan rebels captured and brutally killed Gaddafi. Footage of the desecration of the body of the former head of state shocked the world, including those who did not consider themselves fans of the Libyan leader.

After Gaddafi was overthrown and the opposition declared victory, the chaos in Libya did not stop. The winners not only found themselves involved in disputes regarding the path of development of the country, they also represented different tribes and regions. It is not surprising that separatist sentiments intensified in the country, which ultimately led to a civil war and the formation of two simultaneously functioning parliaments and governments.

The chaos has led to Libya becoming a base for various terrorist groups, most notably al-Qaeda and IS cells. And this threat is forcing the international community to push Libyan politicians towards dialogue. Until now, all attempts at reconciliation in this country have failed, while the Islamic State is moving towards the oil regions of Libya, and local groups that were still fighting with the Islamic State are coming over to its side. This process is so rapid that it allows experts to speculate about a possible shift in the center of IS operations from Syria and Iraq to Libya and North Africa, where the group has many allies in Nigeria, Chad and Mali.

Bahrain: "unlucky spring"

In Bahrain, the events of the “Arab Spring” were of a religious and political nature. The mass protests that began in February 2011 involved mainly Shiites, who make up about 70% of the kingdom's population. They demanded greater opportunities to participate in the political life of the country and the resignation of the current government. The ruling Sunni Al Khalifa family decided not to make concessions to the protesters; law enforcement agencies used force to suppress the demonstrations. To end the unrest and internal political stabilization, Bahrain was forced to seek help from the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC). In March 2011, the GCC military contingent was introduced into the country. Subsequently, the Bahraini authorities attempted to hold a national dialogue. Nevertheless, at present, according to human rights activists, repression and infringement of the rights of Shiites continues in Bahrain.

Algerian vaccination against revolutions

In addition to Bahrain, the regime survived in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, and Sudan. Each of the countries mentioned had its own experience in overcoming the crisis. In some ways, the authorities had to make real concessions, in others they had to pretend that they were ready for compromises. According to Russian orientalist Irina Zvyagelskaya, in rich oil-producing Arab countries, discontent was “filled” with money, immediately knocking down any revolutionary sentiment.

Particularly noteworthy is the example of Algeria, where demonstrations did not achieve the resounding success of neighboring countries, not only because of the measures taken by the authorities, but also due to the bitter experience of civil war and Islamist terror experienced in the 1990s. There was practically no desire to undermine the situation in a country that had just begun to emerge from chaos. Fears that Islamist terror could be repeated and the disunity of the opposition have prevented Algerians from following the path of their neighbors.

However, one of the main reasons why the above-mentioned countries survived is the absence of external forces that actively undermined the situation, as was the case in Libya and Syria.

Syria is on the verge of collapse

He was helped in many ways by the fact that, having been burned in Libya, politicians from different countries continue to search for compromises to solve the Syrian problem. In particular, the Libyan experience has repeatedly forced the Russian Federation and China to veto any UN Security Council resolutions that could lead to foreign intervention in Syria.

Nevertheless, Syria could not avoid the tragic consequences of the Arab Spring. There has been a civil war in the country for almost five years now; in addition, the military has to confront not only the armed opposition, but also terrorists. According to the UN, the number of victims of the Syrian conflict exceeds 220 thousand people. More than 4 million Syrians have become refugees, and about 8 million have become displaced persons. 12 million Syrians are in need of humanitarian assistance. At the same time, the country is under sanctions; during the fighting, major economic and industrial centers were destroyed, and the main gas and oil fields were under the control of IS and the opposition.

The Arab Spring began with protest demonstrations that broke out in mid-December 2010 in Tunisia and, in a matter of days, led to the fall of the regime of President Ben Ali, who had ruled the country single-handedly for twenty years. Then it was the turn of the Egyptian regime of Hosni Mubarak, who ruled the country for almost thirty years, followed by Libya, Yemen and Syria.

The turmoil that engulfed the Middle East was largely an expression of the crisis that the Arab world had been experiencing for several decades in a row. The upheaval was caused by the younger generation, the result of rapid population growth in the second half of the 20th century. In the early 1960s, the population of Arab countries was 100 million. At the beginning of 2011, during the Arab Spring, there were 400 million people living in Arab states, and by 2050 there could be 700 million. For the rapidly growing population, there were no resources to provide a decent lifestyle.

Context

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Atlantico 12/04/2015 The Arab Spring was received around the world with undisguised joy, in the hope that young people in Tahrir Square and other places will be able to overcome or jump over the abyss separating the Arab world from Western countries, and will ensure economic prosperity and democratic order. This joy was joined by many Israelis who argued that Israel must follow the regional process rather than resist it, otherwise, they warned, Israel would be seen as occupying the wrong place on the map of a changing Middle East, supporting dictatorial regimes that oppressed peoples, and now they have been thrown into the dustbin of history.

But it quickly became clear that we were not talking about the “Arab Spring,” but about the “Islamic Winter.” In many Arab countries, branches of the Muslim Brotherhood movement came to power, wanting to paint the entire Arab world green (the color of Islam, the color of the Muslim Brotherhood flag). Some countries, such as Egypt and Tunisia, have achieved at least partial stability. This did not happen in other Arab states. There, state institutions collapsed (initially, perhaps, standing on a weak or artificial foundation) and society collapsed. As a result, Syria, Libya and Yemen joined the growing list of failed states, which was previously joined by Iraq, Libya and Somalia. In the summer of 2014, the “Arab Spring” and “Islamic Winter” were replaced by the “Summer of Daesh,” and after the group’s militants captured northern Iraq and eastern Syria, these areas on maps are usually painted black - the color of the banners of this organization. Daesh and similar movements emerged from the turmoil in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq and were able to take advantage of the failure of the younger generation to lead the protests and subsequent processes that they themselves provoked.

Israel was almost the only state that from the very beginning was suspicious of what was happening in neighboring countries, fearing that the usual relatively moderate regimes would be replaced by Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood, as happened at first. But even in Israel, no one imagined that chaos and anarchy would result, radical jihadist groups like Daesh would strengthen, and they would come close to the Israeli borders, in the absence of deterrent potential and the balance of power that for many years ensured calm in the south and north .

One way or another, the Middle East has changed. The old order has collapsed. To make matters worse, the Arab states and nations have been replaced by a world of ethnic factions, clans, tribes and radical Islamist movements that threaten to set all Arabs back hundreds of years.