Britain will leave the European Union this summer. Brexit is everything: Britain changed its mind about leaving the European Union

A referendum on the UK leaving the EU was held in June 2016. The majority (51.89%) of Britons supported a divorce from Brussels.

At that moment, the clock began to tick. Turning to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, London set itself a deadline.

Two years, that is, until March 29, 2019, the May government had to determine the terms of the divorce with the EU. If it was not possible to agree, according to the same Article 50, the UK had to leave without a deal, but at the same time - March 29, 2019.

This deadline passed a few days ago, and the UK is technically still a member of the European Union. The reason for this is the benevolence of the collective Brussels towards London.

The participants of the EU summit on March 21 unanimously decided to grant the UK a delay until May 22. But here there is a nuance. The EU will delay until May only if it approves the deal proposed by the prime minister by April 12. Otherwise - "hard" Brexit. In fact, it turns out that

the date of the UK's exit from the community as a whole now depends on the willingness of the Commons to compromise:

if they approve May's deal, they leave the EU on May 22, otherwise there is a no-deal Brexit on April 12.

And when will the House of Commons agree to the deal?

Do you agree at all? big question. Parliament has already rejected May's proposed deal three times. The last time voting took place on the day of the original deadline, March 29th.

The media wrote that this is London's last chance to leave the EU with a deal. However, Parliament missed it. 344 deputies voted against the agreement, 286 in favor.

However, even in such a situation, progress can be seen. When the deal was first voted on, 202 people supported the agreement, while 432 opposed it. This was the biggest defeat for the British government since the 1920s.

And yet, the number of MPs who are tired of the endless horror of Brexit and ready to support the deal increases after each vote.

It looks like May is trying to starve Parliament out.

What can the prime minister do to save Brexit?

Already done. On April 2, she held one of the longest meetings with her cabinet. For seven hours, British ministers have been trying to decide how to avoid a "hard" Brexit, which is strongly rejected by the majority of parliamentarians.

After this meeting, the Prime Minister made a televised address in which she offered the opposition Laborists cooperation in order to avoid the option of a hard divorce from the EU.

If negotiations fail, she promises to deal with Brexit as Parliament decides.

At first glance, this is an absolutely meaningless proposal. Parliament has already tried several times to seize the initiative from the government in resolving the Brexit issue.

Last week, parliamentarians submitted eight alternative options for a deal with the EU, and four more this week. And they were all rejected. However, some of them proved more popular among parliamentarians than May's proposed deal.

For example, only three votes were not enough to keep the UK in the European Customs Union. To hold a new national referendum - 12 votes. Such gaps are much easier to overcome than in the case of Mei's variation.

What's wrong with May's deal?

May's proposed deal includes maintaining the UK-EU partnership on services and data sharing. Access to European markets will also be maintained as long as British financial law is in line with European norms.

In short: Until the end of 2020, the UK will remain part of the EU Customs Union and the European Single Market (EEC).

During the transition period, London and Brussels will agree on the parameters for further cooperation and, first of all, on an agreement to avoid the appearance of a physical border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

The document spells out the possibility to use the backstop mechanism, which provides for the preservation of EU regulations in Northern Ireland until London and Brussels can reach a compromise on this issue.

It is the issue with the border of Northern Ireland that most worries the opponents of Brexit.

British supporters of a European divorce have criticized the backstop mechanism, fearing it could be used to tie the country to European rules indefinitely.

Why do they need Brexit at all?

The downsides of the UK leaving the EU are well known, but the upsides are not obvious.

But at least the number of labor migrants will decrease - by about 200 thousand people a year.

It is unlikely that this will improve the standard of living of the British themselves, but it will remove the growing irritation in society regarding the too tolerant migration policy adopted by Brussels.

The same labor migrants who managed to settle in the UK before Brexit will also have a hard time. Especially those who have worked in the country for less than four years. After the UK leaves the EU, they will be denied the right to receive benefits.

In general, after a divorce, EU citizens will have equal rights with any other foreigners. For example, citizens of the Baltic States will have the same chance of getting a job in the UK as residents of African or Middle Eastern countries.

Such prospects have already scared away many migrants. Since the referendum, the flow of labor migrants to the UK has been declining every year.

The main problem that the British will face after Brexit is the customs collapse. Even if Brussels and London are able to agree on the issue of trade regulation, the difficulties will not decrease.

The consequences of Brexit for Europe will be different for economically strong and weak countries. Weak ones like Greece and new EU members from of Eastern Europe, will begin to demand more and more indulgences and financial assistance. And the strong (Germany, France, Italy, Nordic countries), on the contrary, will try to “tighten the screws”.

Image copyright Thinkstock Image caption UK referendum to leave the EU in 2017

British Prime Minister David Cameron promises to hold a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union by the end of 2017. Here are the main arguments for and against UK membership in the EU.

What can the UK's exit from the European Union lead to in practice?

If the UK decides to leave the EU, it will have to conclude a new trade deal with the remaining 27 countries in the EU so that British companies can continue to sell their goods on the European market without facing increased tariffs and other restrictions.

Proponents of the exit believe that the UK will be able to negotiate an amicable divorce, which will allow it to maintain close trade ties with EU countries.

• Norwegian option: The UK leaves the EU and joins the European Economic Area, which will provide it with access to the single European market, with the exception of part of the financial sector of the economy. It will also free Britain from EU rules in the areas of agriculture, fisheries, law and home affairs.
• Swiss option: The UK will follow the example of Switzerland, which is not part of the EU or the EEA, but concludes separate agreements with Brussels for each sector of the economy.
• Turkish option: UK may enter Customs Union with the EU, which will give its industry free access to the European market, but the financial sector will not receive such access.
• The UK could also try to negotiate a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU along the Swiss model, but with guarantees for financial sector access to the European market, as well as some control over the formulation and enforcement of common trade rules.
• The UK can completely break off its relations with the EU, and rely only on the rules of the WTO.

Many of those who speak for the UK exit from the EU, say that neither the Norwegian, nor the Swiss, nor the Turkish options are suitable for Britain.

They want a free trade agreement where the UK will not be subject to EU law, the country will be removed from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, it will be subject to the right of free movement of people in Europe, and it will not pay any membership dues.

Considering the fact that on this moment UK and EU laws are in full compliance with regulations, it will be relatively easy to conclude such an agreement, say supporters of Britain's exit from the European Union.

They point to the example of Canada, which recently negotiated a free trade agreement with the EU that would remove almost all trade restrictions, but does not provide for freedom of movement for citizens of either side, nor for Canadian contributions to the EU budget.

Exit Opponents declare that an amicable divorce is an empty dream. France, Germany and other EU countries will never let the UK choose which Union rules it agrees to.

They also point out that Norway and Switzerland are required to comply with most EU rules, without having any say in the development of these rules, and in addition are required to contribute to the EU budget.

It will take years to conclude a free trade agreement, and the outcome of these negotiations is not clear. If the UK completely breaks its ties with the EU, then, firstly, tariffs will be imposed on its goods, and, secondly, British manufacturers will still be required to comply with EU standards, which will undermine their competitiveness.

All this could lead to a trade war between Britain and the EU, which would deal a severe blow to British exporters.

What will happen to the British labor market?

Ahead of the referendum, debate has already begun about how many millions of jobs the UK will lose or create by leaving the European Union.

All such statements should be treated with a great deal of skepticism. Precise numbers are impossible to determine, for example, because no one knows whether foreign companies will keep their promises to cut production in Britain if it leaves the EU, or how many jobs will be created in the new, changed economy of the country.

exit supporters say that in the absence of EU bureaucracy and its myriad rules, small and medium-sized enterprises will flourish, which will lead to an increase in employment, since they trade less than other companies with other EU countries.

Exit Opponents it is said that millions of jobs will be lost as multinational companies move production to other EU countries.

In particular, this will affect the automotive industry, which is almost entirely owned by foreign companies.

The financial sector, which employs 2.1 million Britons, also fears the possible consequences of a UK exit from the EU, as the success of the sector is built on free access to the European market, and the loss of such access carries very serious risks.

What will happen to the economy as a whole?

Much will depend on which treaties the UK manages to sign with the EU and other countries.

At best, according to the Open Europe Research Institute, by 2030 the UK GDP will grow by an additional 1.6% per year. To do this, the British government will have to embark on a massive deregulation, as well as conclude lucrative trade agreements with other countries.

The same institute notes that a scenario in which by 2030 GDP will fluctuate between a 0.8% contraction and a 0.6% growth would be much more realistic.

The Center for Economic Efficiency at the London Higher School of Economics believes that in the worst case, UK GDP will shrink from 6.3% to 9.5%, which is comparable to the results of the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

At best, GDP will shrink by only 2.2%, according to the authors of this study.

What will happen to immigration?

exit supporters The UK from the EU say that the British government will regain full control over the country's borders.

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) wants to introduce a work permit system that would place European Union nationals under the same restrictions as citizens of other countries.

This, the party says, will reduce population growth from 298,000 a year to about 50,000, which in turn, UKIP believes, will allow the British to get jobs, lead to higher wages, and also make it easier for schools, hospitals and other similar institutions.

Exit Opponents it is said that in exchange for access of British goods and services to the European market, the UK may be forced to agree to the freedom of movement of EU citizens.

In addition, they say, immigration from the European Union has benefited the British economy. Growth projections for the UK economy are partly based on continued high levels of immigration.

The British Bureau of Budgetary Responsibility says that the British economy depends on the labor of immigrants, and the taxes paid by migrants support the state budget.

Will the UK save by not paying to the EU budget?

In 2013, taking into account the rebate received by Britain, it paid 14.5 billion euros to the EU budget. This is more than four times more than in 2008. The British government spends about the same amount per year on transport needs.

exit supporters The UK from the EU is being told that London will save all that money.

Opponents they say that this amount is just a drop in the ocean compared to the income that a business receives with access to the entire European market.

How will this affect international trade?

exit supporters The EU is telling the UK that the European Union as a market is not as important to Britain as it used to be, and that the ongoing eurozone crisis will only reinforce this trend.

Economist Roger Bootle argues that even if the UK fails to conclude a free trade agreement with Brussels, it will not be a tragedy, since as a result, Britain will be in the same position as the US, India, China and Japan, which are almost without problems export their goods to the EU.

The UK will be able, with the help of the WTO, to conclude bilateral trade agreements with countries with rapidly growing economies, such as China, Singapore, Brazil and India, as well as with Russia.

Exit Opponents recall that the EU is the main trading partner of the UK, which accounts for 52% of British exports of goods and services. A full exit from the European Union will lead to the emergence of trade barriers.

This means, for example, that British-made cars will be subject to a 15% tariff, while cars imported from Europe will be subject to a 10% tariff.

"The assumption that the UK will find it easier to trade outside the EU is based on a range of misconceptions that a medium-sized open economy can hold its own in an increasingly fractured international trading system dominated by the US, the EU and China," it said. report of the Center for European Reforms, which supports the European Union.

How will the role of the UK in the international arena change?

exit supporters Britain is said to remain a key member of NATO and the UN Security Council, as well as a nuclear power.

The EU-skeptical British Bruges Group believes that the UK should stop playing the role of a bridge between the US and Europe and start pursuing its own interests.

Exit Opponents from the EU say that as London loses its influence in Brussels, Paris and Berlin, Washington will increasingly ignore it, especially in relation to such important issues as protection environment, security and trade.

America and its allies want the UK to remain in the EU. If Britain leaves the European Union, then it will be a small, isolated state.

What will become of the British living in Europe and the Europeans in the UK?

exit supporters they say that Britain will be able to control its own borders, and that all migration issues will be decided exclusively in accordance with British law. This will make it harder for EU citizens to enter the country, but is unlikely to affect those already in the UK.

Exit Opponents say that much will depend on what kind of agreement London manages to conclude with the EU.

Britons may need visas to travel to EU countries, and British citizens living in those countries may be subject to integration rules.

They may, for example, be required to demonstrate knowledge of the local language in order to retain the right to live in a particular country.

It is also not clear the position of EU citizens who pay taxes in Britain - will they be able to stay here? And if so, what would be their entitlements to social services?

Will taxes change?

exit supporters remind that, although EU rules generally do not affect taxation, value added tax is established within certain limits in agreement with the EU. By leaving the EU, London will be able to vary this tax more freely.

Opponents, such as the pro-European newspaper Observer, recall that tax evasion by international companies has become one of the foundations of their business model.

Will the British legal system and its democratically elected institutions change?

Supporters say that leaving the European Union will only strengthen democracy, since the parliament will become fully sovereign. The UK will also not be subject to European laws and regulations.

Opponents remind that residents of the UK will no longer be subject to European legislation in social areas and labor protection. In addition, London has already secured a number of exceptions to European law.

What does British Prime Minister Cameron want from the EU?

The Prime Minister is trying to reach agreement on 4 broad issues: economic governance, social benefits for non-UK residents, competitiveness and sovereignty. In practice, this means that the EU must review the regulation in the field of banking supervision and how it will fit into new laws in the financial sector. Also, social payments, the regulation of bureaucratic norms in the business environment should be revised, and an agreement should be reached regarding the agreement on the establishment of the bloc and its transfer to the format of an “even closer union”. And the last point: the EU must confirm that the bloc will never force the UK to work more closely.

EU President Donald Tusk will try to reach an agreement that suits everyone because, according to Tusk, "failure will jeopardize our future together."

What is the stumbling block?

Cameron is trying to get confirmation that companies operating in the UK financial sector will be protected from the effects of EU banking rules. Tusk suggested that the banking rules of the Eurozone should be voluntary for countries outside the currency bloc, but these countries should receive more votes on issues that concern them without the right to veto or postpone important decisions. Countries that are not part of a monetary union should get some kind of mechanism that will significantly reduce their fears.

France is among the countries that are negative about this reform and insists that London banks do not receive an unfair advantage over their counterparts on the Continent. Britain has insisted that the country's banks are being held hostage by the hegemony of the European Central Bank, and senior lenders have warned that the UK needs to follow EU rules to prevent chaos in the financial system.

What restrictions can be placed on social benefits?

The UK government wants to alleviate taxpayers' fears that workers from all over Europe are coming to Britain for mercantile interests, as well as to receive large benefits and benefits associated with the birth of children. EU representatives have said that they can make some compromise, but it will not apply to those Europeans who are already working in the UK. Any changes will only affect those workers who move to the UK after reaching an agreement, according to Tusk and the president. European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker.

Some concessions are possible on the issue of benefits for parents with young children. Juncker said country leaders could discuss indexing child support, which means that payments could be linked to what EU workers receive in their countries instead of the UK's established benefits. Britain is pushing for a four-year pause in benefits for EU migrants should they apply, and Cameron is keen to allay the concerns of his counterparts in Eastern European countries, including Poland and Bulgaria, whose citizens make up the majority of immigrants to the UK.

Probability of Brexit

As 8banks writes in an ever-updated article on Brexit, according to the most recent referendum forecast from Number Cruncher Politics, the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU is this moment is 20%. The chance of a Brexit fell from 24% after the UK Treasury warned that leaving the EU could take decades economic problems. Prime Minister David Cameron's recent moves to revamp the tax code and sell the nation's largest steel plant have not been significantly reflected in the change in voters' opinion. The IMF also stood up to support the position of the British prime minister, saying that Brexit could cause irreparable damage to the global economy. Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labor Party, also lent his support to the pro-EU opinion on Thursday. The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, supported the idea of ​​a referendum and the UK's exit from the EU.

On November 10, 2015, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced the official launch of a campaign to change the terms of the UK's EU membership. Cameron sent a letter to the President of the European Council in which .

1) reduction by the UK of the migration flow from the EU (including the introduction of a four-year ban on these migrants from receiving social benefits; the introduction of a six-month ban on unemployment benefits for migrants from the EU; tightening the rules for the deportation of criminal migrants, etc.);

2) improving competitiveness (eliminating bureaucratic barriers, any restrictions on the movement of capital, goods and services);

3) the strengthening of British sovereignty, in particular, the rejection of the obligation to move "toward a closer union" (ever closer union), fixed in the founding treaty of the EU;

4) changes in the monetary sphere (in particular, the inadmissibility of discrimination against countries that are not members of the euro area, the imposition of any decisions on them by the countries of the euro area; introduction of changes, including those related to the creation of a banking union, only on a voluntary basis, etc.).

Cameron bound himself with a promise to vote in a referendum to leave the EU if those conditions were not met.
Since November, when Cameron presented a list of demands, the services of the European Council and the European Commission have been intensively negotiating with London, agreeing on the details of a possible deal.

On February 19, 2016, it became known that the leaders of the EU countries, after a two-day debate, agreed with the UK, in which British Prime Minister David Cameron would support the retention of his country in the EU in the upcoming referendum. The member countries agreed on the text of the document, which was to come into force on the day when the British government notifies the EU Council General Secretariat of the UK's decision to remain a member of the European Union following a referendum.

Among the agreements reached at the EU summit is the inclusion of a "protection mechanism" social system UK for seven years, non-renewable, with a "trial period" during which new migrants will not be paid social benefits, will be four years. Also important point was the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU principle of "an ever closer union of the peoples of Europe", which implies the integration of countries within the EU. The third key point was the statement of the principle that "".

June 23, 2016 in the UK on the issue of leaving the EU, initiated by David Cameron. About 52% of Britons voted for leaving the EU, 48% against.

June 24, 2016 British Prime Minister David Cameron on the results of the last referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. Cameron, who opposed Brexit, was going to keep his post, regardless of the outcome of the vote, but changed his mind.

Preservation of membership in the European Union, supporters of Brexit celebrate the victory. TUT.BY answers the most exciting questions about what will happen now, what will be the procedure for the country's exit from the EU and what will be the consequences of this.

Is Brexit now inevitable?

Strictly speaking, no. The referendum was of a consultative nature. But most experts agree that, for political reasons, the government will not be able to ignore the opinion of the majority of the British and will launch the procedure for leaving the European Union.

What is the procedure?

No country has yet voluntarily left the EU, this has happened only to parts of the member states (Algeria after independence, Greenland), so the procedure is not completely known.

Now the British government will take a break to consider further measures. Under the Lisbon Treaty (an analogue of the EU constitution), the member state that decides to withdraw notifies the European Council of its intention (includes all EU heads of state).

In parallel, work will be carried out on two agreements. The first is the UK's exit from the EU. The second will determine their future relationship format.

Others will have to vote for the UK withdrawal agreement European countries. The procedure requires approval by two-thirds (more than 18 EU member states) of the votes in the European Council and the European Parliament. European Council President Donald Tusk on the eve of the referendum that "there is no guarantee that this process will be successful".

The second agreement will have to be approved by all 27 EU countries by consensus.

How long will that take?

Another minimum two years from a formal point of view, nothing will change. That is how long it should take from the moment London formally notifies Brussels until the termination of the EU's founding agreements for the UK.

But experts agree that the process could take much longer. Donald Tusk estimated him at seven years old. The British government calls the figure at "ten years or more."

During these years, the UK and the EU will agree on a free trade area, most likely - following the examples of non-EU Norway or Switzerland, on the procedure for the movement of citizens, representatives of London will be withdrawn from European bodies(European Commission, European Parliament, European Council), which implies massive reductions in the apparatus of these bodies. About 1,200 Britons work in the structures of the European Commission, several hundred - in the offices of 73 British members of the European Parliament and in the apparatus of the Council of the European Union.

What are the consequences of Brexit?

Citizens of the EU member states in the UK (3.3 million, of which almost 900 thousand Poles) and the British in the EU countries (1.2 million), many of whom are pensioners, will become dependent on the content of the future agreement between London and Brussels.

Obviously, they will agree not to apply any harsh measures like deportation. Experts believe that either a long-term transition period, or an exception will be made for migrants already legally living today. If we draw an analogy with Norway, then its citizens do enjoy equal rights with citizens of EU member states. But given that Brexit was motivated in large part by British dissatisfaction with the scale of immigration, new mode may not be so liberal. The European Union will be forced to act like a mirror, imposing similar restrictions on British citizens.

Similar problems will be faced by British companies registered in the EU, and companies of EU countries registered in the United Kingdom.

Most experts, including the British government itself, predict a decline in UK GDP due to leaving the EU: from 3.8% to 7.5% by 2030, depending on the progress of negotiations with Brussels on a new agreement. According to the latest IMF forecasts, if the UK manages to quickly agree with the EU on a free trade area, GDP in 2017 will fall by about 1%. If the negotiations drag on, then by about 4%, while the decline will continue for several more years.

The pound against other currencies, in the coming months it will certainly storm. The forecasts include an increase in unemployment in Britain due to the closure of businesses tied to the EU, as well as turbulence in stock markets. In the early days, we are likely to see a drop in quotes around the world, a drop in oil and gold prices. Most likely, real estate in Britain will also become cheaper, but only in the short term.

Many may leave the UK large companies fearing the loss of the overall market. This was announced before the referendum by HSBC and Goldman Sachs, among others. Brexit supporters will object to this that London will now be able to create more attractive conditions for investors.

The political consequences within the UK could become even more dramatic. Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation, who called for voting for the preservation of EU membership. Strengthen the position of the main supporter of Brexit, the former mayor of London Boris Johnson. Some experts tipped him off as prime minister, although Johnson himself obligingly asked his Conservative party ally Cameron not to resign immediately after the referendum.

Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly in favor of remaining in the EU, may consider a new referendum on leaving the UK. The leader of the Scottish nationalists, Nicola Sturgeon, did not rule out such a possibility.

Brexit will be an impetus for Eurosceptics in all other EU member states. “If Britain could do it, why can’t we?” say the right-wing populists of Germany, France, the Czech Republic, etc.

The UK was not a member of the Schengen Agreement, so third-country nationals like Belarus will still need to get a UK visa. It may become more difficult to obtain it if more right-wing forces than the current government come to power. The BBC also predicts an increase in airfare.

Will Britain be able to return after the exit?

Yes. But then she will have to go through the entire procedure that is established for those wishing to join the European Union. In the case of Great Britain, of course, it will take less time than with Turkey, but it will obviously take years.