Technical analysis of MICEX shares. Fundamental and technical analysis

Greetings, dear guests and subscribers! What do you think a stock market share and a watermelon have in common? This is a very serious question! To make it easier to answer, here's a little hint: would you buy green or overripe watermelon?

For every purchase there is a time. Stocks are no exception either. Is it starting to clear up? And to finally put everything in its place, today we will look at the technical analysis of stocks: learning to invest on time!

Most analysts, when making a forecast, take into account: the news background, the price of oil (the Russian economy greatly depends on it), and the optimism of foreign investors. This approach is understandable even for a beginner.

But to take into account all the factors, you need to spend hours studying the news feed, wasting precious time. After weighing all the pros and cons, the investor decides whether to buy or sell a stock.

The collective actions of many investors lead to a change in price, which is displayed on the chart. By studying the patterns of these changes, analysts have found a way to save time: instead of reading the news, it is enough to plot special tools on the chart, called indicators, which allow making a further forecast.

This is what technical analysis consists of: it is assumed that the current price and the shape of its chart contain all the information available to market participants. All that remains is to interpret it correctly and present it in the form of specific recommendations.

Now for some practice

The popularity of Russian shares among investors depends on factors such as the importance of the issuer for the economy, the potential for its further development, as well as the liquidity of the share and the volatility of its value. Systemically important companies participate in the index calculation base MICEX and form a list of so-called "blue chips".

Example No. 1, JSC Aeroflot

Most investors prefer Gazprom, Aeroflot, VTB, Alrosa, Surgutneftegaz. For example, consider the daily chart of Aeroflot stock prices (read more about how to read a candlestick chart). The intrigue is that at the moment they are trading near their historical maximum, equal to 225 rubles per 1 ordinary share.

The chart shows that after 12.07 a price gap or gap is formed. This is due to the fact that on July 14, the company’s register of shareholders was closed for the payment of dividends (marked “D”). Such an event usually leads to a temporary decrease in demand for shares and the share of sellers (traditionally called “bears”) becomes predominant.

The next few days the price is in a narrow horizontal range. This phenomenon is called consolidation. The blue circle with the letter “P” shows a bullish doji reversal pattern. Buyers are called “bulls” in the market: they seem to raise the price with their horns, in contrast to bears, who push the price down with their mass. The current situation can be shown more clearly as follows:

Such price action often indicates a future reversal. The reliability of such a signal is considered close to 80%. However, it is advisable to obtain additional confirmation. There is a blue line on the graph. This is an indicator called an exponential moving average.

It connects the points obtained by averaging the closing prices of an asset over a certain period of time (in our case, 9 days) taking into account the “weighting” coefficients of these prices: the “fresh” the price, the higher its coefficient. This indicator smoothes the price chart and gives a more clear idea of ​​the trend in its further change.

When the price rises above the moving average, a buy signal occurs. In this case (214.85 rubles) this is exactly what is observed. Finally, another indicator on our chart is the relative strength index or RSI (it is separately below). If its value exceeds 70, the asset is considered to be overbought and further purchases are risky.

However, thanks to the gap followed by consolidation, the RSI left the overbought zone. Thus, according to technical analysis, Aeroflot shares are suitable for purchase. By the way, in most cases the gap closes sooner or later.

As practice shows, the price is never too high or too low. However, there is one exception: company bankruptcy. How this shows up on its stock chart is our next example.

Example No. 2, Taganrog Combine Harvester Plant

Let's look at the weekly chart of shares of the Taganrog Combine Harvester Plant or TKZ. In 2014, this plant was declared bankrupt. However, its shares continued to be traded on the Moscow Exchange, reflecting the residual value of the enterprise.

The chart shows that the huge bearish candle at the beginning of 2016 corresponded to extremely low trading volumes. This means that there are no buyers in the market. Subsequently, the price collapse continued, periodically giving way to rebounds. All this happened with minimal volumes.

And in April 2017, when the price almost reached zero, the volumes became truly enormous. This can only mean one thing: market participants have received comprehensive information that investing in this instrument does not make any sense. Indeed, in May 2017, TKZ shares were removed from the RTS Board listing.

For the busiest people, there are online services that provide automatic recommendations for the purchase or sale of any asset. Analysis of the readings of popular technical indicators is carried out using a special program (for example, here). Sometimes the chart itself doesn’t even need to be downloaded.

Most indicators give a buy signal on it. The only exception is moving averages with periods of 100 and 200, which have not yet had time to turn upward. By the way, a “buy” recommendation means purchases at the current price, and “active buy” means continuing purchases when the price rises.

Studying all this information in the graphs individually would take a lot of time. It turns out that even technical analysis can be speeded up!

Afterword

Supporters of technical analysis argue that if news regarding an exchange asset is published, then this is already reflected in the price and, accordingly, on the chart. In their opinion, reading the news feed is not necessary. There is a valid objection to this. Before price changes become noticeable, for example, on a daily chart, they must appear on all shorter-term charts.

It’s the same here as in life. When looking at something large and significant from afar, we lose small but important details, and concentrating on details prevents us from seeing the phenomenon as a whole. The art of an investor lies in a wise compromise between all sorts of extremes, and this only comes with experience.

Subscribe to my blog news and let your experience bank fill up!

Stock market analysis- this is a key point in trading for every trader. What and how you will trade, and accordingly the results, depend on the success of his providence. If you misidentify the underlying trend in the market, you will be trading against the trend. If you pick weak stocks or trade against market news, you will make a loss. In this training section you will learn how to analyze the stock market, what methods and methods exist, and on what principles it is based.

Each time, before opening a position, the trader analyzes the stock market. Which way to trade: buy or sell? Which economic sector is the leading? Which stocks have the best trading prospects? These are the main questions that a trader must answer. On this page you will learn the main principles and methods of stock market analysis, with their advantages and disadvantages.

Classical or Western technical analysis of the stock market is closely related to the Charles Dow theory. It was formulated back in 1900, but its principles remain predetermining today. But what has changed in more than 100 years? After all, the world economy and financial markets do not stand in one place. Is the Dow theory as strong today as it once was? How much of it is true? We will discuss this in this post.

An active trader analyzes the stock market based on a price dynamics chart. He draws all kinds of lines and levels, looks for different figures or patterns, and uses indicators to interpret the results. All this constitutes technical analysis. In this article we will discuss the principles of technical analysis, as well as the basic information it provides to the trader.

Investors, in contrast to active traders, have little interest in price dynamics charts. They analyze the stock market based on the financial performance of companies, using various formulas and coefficients. This constitutes fundamental analysis. And although his methods and those of technical analysis are different, the principles remain the same. What these principles are and what a fundamentalist needs to pay attention to, you will learn on this page.

Stock news can have both a positive and negative impact on the trading mood of traders. And since short-term price fluctuations depend on the prevailing sentiment of stock market players, you need to monitor the latest news. Why I like the US stock market is that here all the important information is published on a calendar, which every trader can find out, for example, on the website briefing.com. How to analyze the stock market using stock exchange news, read on this page.

A good business (share) is one that constantly increases its profits. Earnings per share is one of the most important corporate news stories. It happens that after its release, the stock falls or rises with a gap of several percent. No amount of risk management can protect your capital from such price volatility. What to consider, as well as how to analyze earnings per share, you will learn in this article.

Many brokerage firms print trading forecasts for their clients, both for individual stocks and for the market as a whole, and post them on Internet information resources for wide access. Analyzing the stock market in this way may seem very simple and tempting to a novice trader. But should you blindly trust them? It’s not for nothing that experienced traders say: buy when analysts shout how bad the market is, and sell when it’s good. Remember: the main role of any stock news is to add volatility to the market. Read this post, you will definitely find something useful for yourself.

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The Moscow Exchange Index opened down on Friday (closed at 2398.56), a rollback to 2385-2386 would be perceived as normal fluctuations with subsequent attempts to go positive. Growth targets are 2421-2423, intermediate target is 2413. The market's mood for growth suggests a positive opening on Monday.

Alrosa

Alrosa shares jumped out from under the level of 100 rubles. A moderate Positive Scenario was declared for them (target B up 102.79 from support 99.11 was fulfilled on November 29) further up target A 103.35 from 99.56 and target A 104.22 from 101.8. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend).

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 29) are located on November 30 at 99.62

Medium-term stops for growth (the indicators turned upward on November 29) are located on November 30 at 99.18

Gazprom

A possible increase in dividends has strengthened the upward sentiment for Gazprom shares. The positive scenario has been updated to an upward target A of 209.11 from support 154. Local rollback target of 163.63 from resistance 167.36. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is now a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of weakening bearish sentiment)

Trend: rising

Short-term bullish stops (the indicators turned upward on November 27) are placed on November 30 at 155.61

Medium-term stops for growth (the indicators turned upward on November 27) are located on November 30 at 148.3

MMC Norilsk Nickel

Norilsk Nickel shares, on an upward trend, have entered the area of ​​strong relative overbought, which allows us to expect technical corrections. Possible rollback target is 12443 from resistance 12970. Global positive scenario: – (upward target A 12903 from support 11947 was fulfilled on November 29), then upward target A 13197 from 12321. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is an increase in positivity for the stock (evidence upward trend)

Trend: decline in positivity (relatively overbought)

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 2) are placed on November 30, 12076

Lukoil

Lukoil shares turned upward from under 4,600 rubles. Possible growth target A 4941 from support 4659. (Upward target 4764 from 4655.5 fulfilled on November 29). In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in positivity for the stock (evidence of a weakening upward trend)

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 27) are placed on November 30 4675

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 13) are placed on November 30 4820

Moscow Exchange

Shares of the Moscow Exchange again jumped out from under 90 rubles. The local target up 90.74 from support 89.34 was fulfilled on November 29. A negative scenario was previously stated. – Target A is down 86.14 from resistance 94, along the way down 87.79 from 91.94. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 28) are located on November 30 at 89.22

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 20) are on November 30 at 93.32

MTS

MTS shares tried to turn upward from under 250 rubles. Possible growth target is 261.75 from support 248.2. Previously, the failure of MTS shares after a report announcing the reservation of 55.8 billion rubles. under possible legal costs led to the emergence of an Aggressive negative scenario: downward target A 179.75 from resistance 265.95, locally downward target 249.5 from 254.3. In the medium term (for a week or more), the stock is now experiencing a decline in negativity (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: decreasing

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 29) are on November 30 at 245.95

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 20) are located on November 30 at 266.95

Rosneft

Rosneft shares rebounded from relative oversold conditions. The further growth target is locally up 422.8 from support 412.5. Previously, the Negative scenario stated a downward target of 380.6 from resistance 462.7 (risk assessment of the third wave of decline), along with a downward target of 407.2 from 424.6 (the downward target of 416.45 from 425.85 was fulfilled on November 29). Please note that the elasticity of the stock allows us to highlight the long-term target A up 558.65 from the support 371.4. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is an increase in negativity for the stock (evidence of a downward trend).

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 26) are on November 30 413.55

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 29) are on November 30 at 397.75

Sberbank vol.

Sberbank shares came under active pressure from the level of 200 rubles, but tried to turn upward from under 190 rubles. Possible growth target is 202.18 from support 191.1. The negative scenario was complemented by a downward target of 167.11 from resistance of 197.79. (the rebound target of 195.34 from support 185.33 was fulfilled on April 29). “Archive” part of the negative script from April 9. - second phase - downward target 128.4 from resistance 255.3.. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is still an increase in positivity for the stock (evidence of an upward trend).

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 29) are on November 30 at 187.31

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 20) are located on November 30 at 200.97

Severstal

Severstal shares are trading around 1000 rubles. Local target is up 1009.9 from support 996.1. (The rebound target of 1005.3 from support 985.5 was fulfilled on November 29) Negative scenario target A is down 972.4 from resistance 1030.4, further down target A is 953.4 from 1008.4, along the way down 983.4 from 1008.8 . In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up again on November 29) are located on November 30 at 988

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 19) are located on November 30 at 1027.8

FGC UES

For the FGC UES share, a double (triple) bottom formation has been formed around 0.148. A positive scenario has been declared, target B is up 0.16081 from support 0.15274, along the way up 0.15789 from 0.1553. This is a challenge to the ambitious negative scenario - target B(a) down 0.12875 from resistance. 0.15915, locally down 0.15499 from 0.159. Moderate targets up 0.15572 from 0.1517 and 0.15562 from 0.15521. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 27) are placed on November 30 at 0.15392

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 28) are placed on November 30, 15068

Rosseti vol.

Rosseti report for 9 months of 2018. reinforced the positive scenario, which was already triggered by the possibility of an additional issue. The upward target of 0.8719 from support 0.7425, 0.8288 from 0.677, 0.7898 from 0.7179 led the stock into a state of relative overbought, from where it corrected.. The negative scenario (from February 15, 2018) remains - target B(a ) down 0.6431 from the resistor. 9013 and is supported by a target of 0.6565 from the resistance of 0.848. Locally downward target is 0.7604 from 0.7769. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend).

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 22) are placed on November 30 at 0.732

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 28) are placed on November 30 at 0.7001

Brokerage Services Department, VTB Bank (PJSC)

Other publications in the section “Technical analysis of the stock market”

11/30/2018 11:03 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" 11/29/2018 11:29 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" 11/28/2018 11:21 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" 11/27/2018 11:11 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" chips" 11/26/2018 11:11 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" 11/23/2018 11:09 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" 11/22/2018 11:14 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips" 11/21/2018 10:57 Analysis of market dynamics "blue chips" 11/20/2018 11:02 Analysis of the market dynamics of blue "chips" 11/19/2018 10:52 Analysis of the market dynamics of "blue chips"
Articles: 1 - 10 of 21
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Which stocks to buy?

Many investors and speculators ask this age-old question, so which stocks to buy and when? This rather complex question can only be answered by analyzing and evaluating the shares.

Stock Analysis is the collection, systematization and study of various information in order to identify a suitable asset and control its activities. Stock analysis is necessary to determine the entry point into an asset (purchase of shares), as well as a possible exit point from the asset (sale of shares) and the size of the probable profitability from owning this asset. Without analytical data about an asset, you will not be able to determine whether a given asset is undervalued in the market or overvalued and what kind of profitability this asset can bring both in terms of growth in the asset body and in terms of dividend yield.

Stock analysis can be done in several ways:

Technical analysis of stocks

Technical analysis is the prediction of future price changes based on analysis of past price changes. It is based on the analysis of time series of prices - “charts” (from the English chart - graph, diagram). In addition to price series, technical analysis uses information on trading volumes and other statistical data. There are many tools and methods in technical analysis, but they are all based on one assumption: from the analysis of time series, highlighting trends, it is possible to predict price behavior.

Fundamental analysis of stocks

Fundamental analysis of shares is a forecast of the market (exchange) value of an asset, based on an analysis of the financial and operational indicators of its activities. The book (internal) value in most cases does not coincide with the market (exchange) price of the company's shares, which is determined by the ratio of supply and demand on the stock market market. Investors who use Fundamental Analysis in their activities are primarily interested in situations when the book value (the so-called intrinsic value) of the Company's shares exceeds the stock price on the stock exchange. Such shares are considered undervalued and are potential investment targets. By buying undervalued shares, investors expect that in conditions of market inefficiency, the price of shares on the stock market will tend to the “intrinsic value”, that is, in the case of undervalued shares, it will rise. This statement is the opposite of the postulate of technical analysis, which states that all significant information is immediately and fully reflected in the market price value of securities. And this principle negates the idea of ​​fundamental analysis.

It is believed that Technical analysis is more suitable for speculative tactics of acquiring assets, i.e. acquisition of assets for a short or medium period for the purpose of subsequent resale and profit from the difference in purchase and sale prices. In my article I will not consider the essence and order of Technical Analysis, because... I try not to resort to speculative tactics of acquiring assets, except in cases of purchasing shares with a guaranteed income on market failures, and in this case I also do not need to use Technical Analysis. In my article we will look at Fundamental Analysis of Stocks, because... I am a supporter of thoroughly studying an asset before purchasing it and owning this asset for a sufficiently long period of time.

The American school of Fundamental Analysis is based on the classic work of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, “Security Analysis”. This book is probably at hand for every fundamental investor, including yours truly. Fundamental analysis consists of analyzing Companies, industries, and economies to determine the current and future fair value (value) of a given security. Thus, we conduct our analysis from the general, economics and industry, as well as the sphere of activity of the Companies, to the specific, i.e. directly to the analysis and selection of the Company itself for the acquisition of assets.

Price is what you pay for an asset, and value is what you ultimately get. Thus, the great saying was born: “Buy the best assets at a low price and sell them at a high price.” Personally, I believe that the only way to sell assets that bring a good return on ownership (dividend yield) is a significant increase in the value of these assets (overvaluation of the asset) and a possible significant downward price correction in the near future.

Fundamental analysis of the industry and the economy as a whole

Fundamental analysis of the industry and the economy as a whole is an analysis with the help of which we must determine the scope of activity of the Companies whose assets we are going to acquire. In this analysis, we must adhere to the rules for determining the highly competitive field of activity of the Company and constant stable demand from consumers of its products (goods or services). The Company's field of activity must be constantly in demand, regardless of various negative political or economic factors.

After determining the scope of the Company's activities, we move on to a private analysis of the Company. One of the elements of Fundamental Asset Analysis is the Analysis of the Company's financial statements.

Analysis of the Company's financial statements.

Financial statement analysis is one of the elements of fundamental analysis and is a general concept that is used to denote techniques that identify significant relationships in financial statements and facilitate comparisons of the Company's performance over time and with other Companies. Includes horizontal analysis (from year to year), trend analysis (horizontal analysis extended to several years), vertical analysis (shows the relationship of parts of financial statements as a whole). Analysis of indicators: liquidity of the organization, profitability (profitability, profitability), long-term solvency, as well as indicators related to the state of the market (for example, the current market price of shares of a given company).

After studying and compiling an Analysis of the Company’s financial statements, in order to identify the most competitive Companies, as well as establish individual indicators of the Company in relation to other Companies operating in this area, we conduct a comparative analysis of the Companies by analogy.

Comparative analysis of Companies by analogy.

Comparative analysis of Companies by analogy is the construction of individual financial indicators of the Company into multipliers (comparative ratios). Using mathematical formulas, bringing individual indicators of the Company, such as, for example, the ratio of the price of one share of the Company to the profit of the Company divided by the number of shares (P/E indicator), for further comparative analysis with other Companies in the same field of activity, using the same multipliers. This technique is used to eliminate possible differences between the compared Companies due to the size of the Company or the number of shares of the Company, as well as other differences. In other words, this method allows calculations to be made based on the assumption that the companies being compared are the same size and have the same number of shares. Thus, we identify a Company whose ability to compete in the market for goods and services should be so high that other possible producers of these goods and services are either absent or unable to compete with the volume and quality of goods of this Company.

Here we briefly looked at the procedure for analyzing and evaluating stocks. In my next articles I will go into detail on each of the above types.