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Territorial movement of the population is studied using indicators mechanical population movement .
Gross migration (gross migration) shows the total number of migrating residents (P + V).
This indicator is also called migratory traffic.
Migration- this is the movement of people (migrants) across the borders of territories with a change of residence forever or for a certain time.
Data on international migration are obtained as a result of the development of documents of statistical registration of arrivals and departures received from the internal affairs bodies, which are compiled during registration or deregistration of the population at the place of residence. Distinguish between internal (within the borders of Russia) and external (outside the country) migration. Currently, Russia is experiencing an influx of people from the CIS countries and neighboring countries. Information about internally displaced persons and refugees is published according to the data of the Federal Migration Service.
External migration- movement of the population across the country's borders.
Emigration - exodus of people from the country.
Immigration is the entry of people into a particular country.
Internal migration- population movement within a country.
Migration processes can be characterized using absolute and relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population.
1. Migration efficiency ratio(private vital indicator)
2. Coefficient of intensity of migration turnover
Characterizes the frequency of cases of change of residence in the total population for a certain period
3. Coefficient of mechanical growth (intensity of migration) of the population
A negative value characterizes the processes of emigration (departure) of the population from the country (region, settlement).
4. Dropout rate
5. Arrival rate
On the basis of indicators characterizing the natural and mechanical population, an indicator of the total population growth is calculated.
Population growth rate:
- Balances of population movement. Methods for calculating the prospective population
On the basis of registration and accounting data, population balances are compiled, which indicate the number of arrivals per year for various reasons, the number of departures, including the number of departures for reasons of death, migration, etc.
Population balance- these are tables that are compiled on the basis of indicators of the natural and mechanical movement of the population
Population balance diagram
In the intercensal period, the projected population is calculated using the coefficients of total growth for the periods preceding the projected one. One method for calculating the projected population is given below:
Prospective population in the intercensal period:
General population growth rate;
Population at the beginning of the forecast;
N is the number of forecast periods;
The change in population due to births and deaths is called natural population movement.
Mechanical change - a change in the population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:
− external;
− internal;
− seasonal;
- pendulum.
The natural and mechanical movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators:
1) the number of births - N;
2) the number of deaths - M;
3) natural increase - N-M=DS natural;
4) the number of marriages and divorces;
5) the number of those who left for permanent residence - B;
6) the number of arrivals - P.
7) absolute mechanical gain - DS mech.=P-V;
8) total population growth DS= N-M+ P-V;
9) population at the end of the year: St+1=St+ N-M+ P-V.
These indicators are interval, i.e. determined for the period.
To judge the frequency of certain demographic events, relative indicators are used. They are expressed in ppm (‰) and characterize the level of population per 1000 people.
Relative indicators are divided into general and particular (special) indicators.
General coefficients - the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicators to average annual population, calculated in ppm (per 1000 population).
General indicators of the natural and mechanical movement of the population.
fertility rate ‰
death rate 
‰
arrival rate 
‰
retirement rate 
‰
rate of natural increase 
mechanical gain coefficient 
overall growth coefficient K total.pr.=K est.pr.+K mech.pr.
Pokrovsky's vitality coefficient
Private indicators - the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicators to average annual population of any group(age, gender, professional, etc.), calculated in ppm (per 1000 population).
To characterize the birth rate, a special birth rate (fertility indicator) is also used, which is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to the average number of women of fertile age (from 15 to 49 years).
| FERTILITY, DEATH AND NATURAL POPULATION Growth | ||||||
| years | Total, thousand people | Per 1000 population | ||||
| born | deceased | natural increase 1) | born | deceased | natural increase 1) | |
| All population | ||||||
| 26,9 | 10,1 | 16,8 | ||||
| 2782,4 | 886,1 | 1896,3 | 23,2 | 7,4 | 15,8 | |
| 1903,7 | 1131,2 | 772,5 | 14,6 | 8,7 | 5,9 | |
| 2202,8 | 1525,8 | 15,9 | 4,9 | |||
| 1988,9 | 332,9 | 13,4 | 11,2 | 2,2 | ||
| 1363,8 | 2203,8 | -840 | 9,3 | -5,7 | ||
| 1266,8 | 2225,3 | -958,5 | 8,7 | 15,3 | -6,6 | |
| 1311,6 | 2254,9 | -943,3 | 15,6 | -6,6 | ||
| 2332,3 | -935,3 | 9,7 | 16,2 | -6,5 | ||
| 1477,3 | 2365,8 | -888,5 | 10,2 | 16,4 | -6,2 | |
| 1502,5 | 2295,4 | -792,9 | 10,4 | -5,6 | ||
| 1457,4 | 2303,9 | -846,5 | 10,2 | 16,1 | -5,9 | |
| 1479,6 | 2166,7 | -687,1 | 10,4 | 15,2 | -4,8 | |
| 1610,1 | 2080,4 | -470,3 | 11,3 | 14,6 | -3,3 | |
| 1713,9 | 2075,9 | -362 | 12,1 | 14,6 | -2,5 | |
| 1761,7 | 2010,5 | -248,8 | 12,4 | 14,2 | -1,8 |
Task #1
The following data on the population of the region are available:
Define:
1) population at the end of the year, total population growth, natural and mechanical growth;
2) average annual population;
3) fertility, mortality, arrival, departure, natural, mechanical and general growth rates;
4) a special birth rate (fertility rate), if the proportion of women of childbearing age in the total population (dzh15-49) was 19%.
1. Population at the end of the year can be calculated using the following balance formula:
Sk.g. = Sн.g. + [(N-M)+(P-V)], where
[(N-M)+(P-V)] – total population growth,
(N-M) - natural population growth,
(P-V) - mechanical population growth (balance of migration).
S k \u003d 2445.7 + 21.4-33.1 + 8.6-3.6 \u003d 2439.0 thousand people.
The population of the region at the end of the year amounted to 2439.0 thousand people.
The natural decline amounted to 11.7 thousand people. (21.4-33.1 = -11.7), and the migration population growth was equal to 5.0 thousand people. (8.6-3.6=5). Thus, in the year under study, the population of the region decreased by 6.7 thousand people. (-1.7+5=-6.7).
2. The average annual population is calculated in this case in the following way:
Thousand people
On average, during the year, the population amounted to 2442.4 thousand people.
3. General demographic coefficients are calculated according to the general methodology - as the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicator to the average population, expressed in ppm (‰):
In the period under study, per 1,000 inhabitants, there were 8.8 births and 13.6 deaths, 3.5 arrivals for permanent residence and 1.5 departures. The natural decline in the amount of 4.8 ppm was not covered by the excess of the number of arrivals over the number of those leaving the region, and the total decrease in the number amounted to 2.8 people per 1000 inhabitants.
4. To characterize the birth rate, a special birth rate (fertility indicator) is also used, which is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to the average number of women of childbearing age (from 15 to 49 years).
There is the following relationship between the total fertility rate and the fertility rate:
‰
There are 46.3 births per 1000 women of childbearing age.
4. INDICATORS OF LABOR MARKET STATISTICS
Employment is one of the most important socio-economic problems of a market economy. In accordance with the concept of the labor force, which meets international standards, employment and unemployment are considered as two complementary characteristics. The equilibrium of the economic system corresponds to a certain level of employment. In this case, usually the demand for labor exceeds the existing volume of employment, which leads to the presence of unemployment. At the same time, this excess is not unlimited in order to ensure the economic and social stability of society. Therefore, in countries with market economies, employment and unemployment are studied systematically.
For a long time, domestic statistics used the indicator of labor resources, which characterizes the potential of the labor force.
The number of labor resources is defined as the number of able-bodied population of working age and working persons beyond working age (persons of retirement age and adolescents).
The working-age (working) population is the number of men aged 16-59 and women aged 16-54.
The number of working-age population of working age is obtained by subtracting from the population of working-age (working) age the number of non-working disabled persons of groups 1 and 2 at working age and the number of persons of working age receiving a pension on preferential terms.
In a market economy, an indicator is used that characterizes the supply of labor in the labor market, the economically active population.
The economically active population is the part of the population that provides the supply of labor in the labor market. The economically active population includes the employed and the unemployed.
In accordance with the recommendations of the ILO, as noted earlier, statistics consider the number of employed and unemployed as two components of the economically active population, i.e., the labor force. Its measurement makes it possible to conduct macroeconomic monitoring and develop an employment strategy.
The number of the economically active population is estimated according to the data of sample surveys of the population on employment problems. It is recommended that international standards indicate the minimum age adopted when measuring the economically active population. It can be adopted at the level of 6 years (Egypt), 10 years (Brazil) and increase up to 16 years (USA, Sweden). In most countries, it is 14-15 years. Some countries provide two minimum limits: a lower one for obtaining information on economic activity and a slightly higher one for grouping the economically active population: for example, in Canada - 14 and 15 years, India - 5 and 15, Venezuela - 10 and 15 2 , in Russia - 15 and 16 years.
In addition to the minimum age, a number of countries set a maximum age. This means that persons older than it are excluded from the calculation of the economically active population. For example, in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the upper limit is 74 years. In Russia, when conducting surveys of the population on employment problems, they are limited to the age of 72 years. However, with further grouping of the population into employed and unemployed, as in most countries, the maximum age is not set.
In accordance with the methodological guidelines of the "Classification of statistical data on the composition of the labor force, economic activity and employment status", in sample surveys of the population, the employed include persons of both sexes 16 years of age and older, as well as persons of younger ages who, during the period under review:
· performed work for hire for remuneration on a full or part-time basis, as well as performed other work that generates income as self-employment or for hire from individual citizens, regardless of the timing of receiving direct payment or income for their activities. Not included in the number of employed registered unemployed persons performing paid public works received through the employment service; pupils and students performing paid agricultural work in the direction of educational institutions;
temporarily absent from work: due to illness, nursing, annual leave or days off, training, retraining outside their workplace, study leave, leave without pay or with pay at the initiative of the administration, strikes, etc.;
Worked without pay in a family business.
The ICHA gives a grouping of individuals based on their actual or potential connection to the job. It was adopted on January 28, 1993 at the XV International Conference of Labor Statisticians and includes the following groups:
1 - employees;
2 - employers;
3 - persons working at their own expense;
4 - members of production cooperatives;
5 - helping family members;
6 - workers not classified by status.
In accordance with the ICSE, the Goskomstat of Russia approved and put into effect on June 1, 1993, the Basic Methodological Provisions for Classifying Statistical Data on the Composition of the Labor Force, Economic Activity and Status in Employment. It classifies by status in employment the following categories:
a) employees;
b) individuals working on an individual basis;
c) employers;
d) unpaid family workers;
e) members of collective enterprises;
f) persons not classifiable by status.
Currently in Russia 93% are employees, i.e. employees who have entered into an employment contract, contract with the head of the enterprise or an oral agreement with an individual on the conditions of work and the amount of remuneration. This also includes persons appointed to a paid position, including heads of enterprises and organizations.
To individuals working on an individual basis include citizens who independently carry out income-generating activities without using hired labor(excluding casual or seasonal work). This group of people is not yet large - 4.2%.
To Employers include persons who manage their own private (family) enterprise, farm or work independently, but constantly use the labor of hired workers. The total number of entrepreneurs running their own business (0.9%) is dominated by men, although gradually women are increasingly involved in it. As the British say, "there are no men and women in business, there are business partners."
Unpaid family workers are people who work without pay in a private family business owned by a relative.
Members of collective enterprises - persons working at this enterprise and being its owners, co-owners. They are directly involved in solving all issues related to the activities of the enterprise, the distribution of its income among the members of the team.
Persons not classifiable by status in employment, there are persons about whom there is not enough information and (or) who cannot be attributed to any of the listed categories.
In accordance with the methodological guidelines of the "Classification of statistical data on the composition of the labor force, economic activity and employment status", in sample surveys of the population, the unemployed include persons 16 years of age and older who, during the period under review:
a) did not have a job (profitable occupation);
b) were looking for work, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly contacted the administration of the enterprise (employer), used personal connections, etc., or took steps to organize their own business;
c) were ready to go to work.
When referring to the unemployed, all three of these criteria must be met.
It is customary to distinguish actual unemployment, calculated according to the ILO methodology based on sample surveys, from officially registered in the bodies of the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation. In employment services, among citizens who have applied for employment, there are three groups:
1) working, but wishing to change their place of work or work part-time in their free time from their main job;
2) students, students of general education schools and other educational institutions who wish to work in their free time from study;
3) not employed at the time of applying for employment.
To regulate the level of unemployment in the region, the third group of citizens who applied for employment is of the greatest interest. Most of them are recorded as officially recognized by the legislature as unemployed.
As a rule, the unemployment rate, determined according to the data of a sample survey, is 3-6 times higher than the level registered in the bodies of the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation
Missing (up to 100) - economically inactive population of working age, i.e. population that is not part of the labor force. It includes:
Pupils and students, listeners and cadets attending daytime educational institutions and not engaged in any activity other than studying;
Persons engaged in housekeeping, caring for children, the sick, relatives, etc.;
Persons who have stopped looking for a job, having exhausted all the possibilities of obtaining it, but they are able and willing to work,
Persons who do not need to work regardless of their source of income.
According to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO), the economically inactive population includes two more categories that are not part of the labor force:
Persons receiving pensions (for old age, on preferential terms, for the loss of a breadwinner) and not engaged in any activity;
Disabled people who receive pensions and are not engaged in any activity,
The social composition of the unemployed by means of statistics is obtained by analyzing data from a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment service
To predict employment and unemployment, information on the duration of unemployment is needed. This kind of data is used in most countries of the world.
The duration of unemployment in Russia at the end of November 1999 reached six groups:
Compared to countries with developed economies, the proportion of the first group is too small in Russia and the latter is very high.
For example, in the USA in 1990 less than 1 month. About 47% of those who lost it did not have a job, and only one in twenty had not had it for more than 1 year 1 . The high proportion of people who have been unemployed for less than 1 month means that unemployment does not lead to social explosions in society. On the contrary, a high percentage of people with unemployed status for more than 1 year is one of the signs of chronic unemployment.
Based on the considered distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately determine the average duration of unemployment as a weighted arithmetic average:
where - the time of absence of work in the i-th group;
The number of unemployed in the i-th group.
The median duration of unemployment is 11.2 months. The median was calculated using the formula
,
where - the lower limit of the median interval (9), i.e. the first interval with
cumulative frequency of 50% or more;
- the value of the median interval (3);
Ordinal number of the median (50);
Accumulated premedian frequency (42.8);
- local frequency of the median interval (9.9).
The median value shows that about half of the unemployed have been looking for work for more than 11.2 months.
Job search time is quite closely related to the age of the unemployed and differs significantly by gender.
Similarly, it is possible to study the composition of the unemployed by the duration of receiving unemployment benefits: through the distribution of the unemployed by the length of time they received benefits.
The situation on the labor market is assessed not only through the absolute number of employed and unemployed, but also through relative performance at the beginning (end) of the period or on average per year:
1. The coefficient of economic activity is determined by the ratio of the economically active population to the total population or labor force.
In order to have an idea of the level of economic activity of the population of a country (region), the share of the economically active population in the total population is determined.
More precisely, the level of economic activity of the population is defined as the ratio of the number of the economically active population not to the entire population, but to its number between the ages of 15 and 72, because this age group participates in sample surveys.
Each age group has its own level of economic activity. The desire to work systematically increases until the age of 35-39 years (in some years up to 40-44 years) and then gradually decreases.
2. The employment rate of the population is determined by the ratio of the employed population to the economically active population.
The employment rate can also be defined as the proportion of employed people among the population of a certain age group.
The level of employment characterizes the degree of employment of the able-bodied population in the field of socially useful labor. The value of this indicator reflects the current economic situation in the country. It depends on the development of productive forces, scientific and technological progress in society, the level of well-being of the population. Distinguish between full, partial and hidden employment.
Full employment involves the creation of such living conditions under which every able-bodied person is given the opportunity, if he wishes, to be employed or unemployed. Full employment does not mean that the entire working-age population of working age must necessarily be employed. Due to a number of circumstances, individual able-bodied persons may not participate in the labor process (women caring for children; people who do not work because they want to change their profession, etc.). Full employment is achieved when the demand for labor coincides with its supply, which is a rather rare event in a market economy.
Part-time work is a predetermined part-time work, part-time work week. It is inherent in countries with a high level of economic development, where the state of science creates economic conditions for part-time employment.
Deserves special attention hidden employment (potential unemployment), in which workers work against their will in part-time employment, use leave at the initiative of the administration without pay or with partial pay. This visible underemployment understates the real number of unemployed.
Employed and unemployed (economically active population) are an integral part of the region's labor resources. Therefore, in the literature, the levels of employment and unemployment are often defined as the share of the employed and the share of the unemployed in the total labor force. The indicators of employment and unemployment levels found in this way turn out to be lower in their values than those considered earlier (in % of the economically active population.
3. The unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.
4. The total load factor is calculated as the ratio of the population of non-working age to the population of working age per 1000 people.
‰
5. The replacement rate is determined by the ratio of the population of pre-working age (0-16 years) to the population of working age per 1000 people.
‰
6. Retirement load ratio – the ratio of the number of persons of retirement age to the number of working-age population per 1,000 inhabitants.
‰
Task #1
We have the following data on the population of the region:
| Index | thousand people |
| Population(S) | |
| Employees including: working people of retirement age working people younger than working age | |
| Individuals working on a self-employed basis | |
| Unpaid family workers | |
| Employers | |
| Members of cooperatives | |
| Collective farmers | |
| Unemployed and job seekers (previously employed) | |
| First time job seekers | |
| Persons who have been unemployed for a long time, who have stopped looking, but are ready to work | |
| Persons of younger ages (0-15 years) (S 0-15) | |
| Out-of-work students of working age | |
| Persons engaged in housekeeping, childcare | |
| Old-age pensioners (S pen) | |
| Non-working persons of working age including: the number of disabled people of groups 1 and 2 the number of persons receiving a pension on preferential terms |
1) the number of employed (S s), unemployed (S b), economically active (S a) and economically inactive population (S na);
2) coefficients of economic activity (K a), employment (K h) and unemployment (K b);
3) population in working age (working) age (S t), able-bodied population in working age (S tt), labor resources (S tr);
4) the coefficients of the total load (K general n), pension (K pen n) and replacement (K deput).
1. THE CONCEPT "LIFE STANDARD OF THE POPULATION" ITS COMPONENTS
The concept of "standard of living" is a complex, multifaceted, socio-economic category. It includes the volume of consumption of material and spiritual goods and the degree to which they satisfy the needs of the population.
The concept of "standard of living" can be considered in the broad and narrow sense of the word.
In a broad sense, the standard of living, i.e. at the level of the country as a whole, it is the totality of all socially significant conditions for the development of society.
In a narrow sense, the standard of living reflects only the personal needs of the individual and the degree of satisfaction with them.
The standard of living is one of the most important social categories. The standard of living is understood as the provision of the population with the necessary material goods and services, the achieved level of their consumption and the degree of satisfaction of reasonable (rational) needs. This is how well-being is understood. The monetary value of the goods and services actually consumed in the average household during a certain period of time and corresponding to a certain level of satisfaction of needs, is the cost of living. In a broad sense, the concept of "standard of living of the population" also includes the conditions of life, work and employment, life and leisure, its health, education, natural habitat, etc. In this case, the term "quality of life" is more often used.
There are four levels of living of the population: prosperity (the use of benefits that ensure the all-round development of a person); normal level (rational consumption according to scientifically based standards, providing a person with the restoration of his physical and intellectual strength); poverty (consumption of goods at the level of maintaining working capacity as the lower limit of labor force reproduction); poverty (the minimum allowable set of goods and services according to biological criteria, the consumption of which only allows maintaining human viability).
Raising the standard of living (social progress) is a priority direction of social development.
The tasks of studying the standard of living also include:
Comprehensive consideration of the structure, dynamics and rates of change of its indicators;
Differentiation of various groups of the population by income and consumption and analysis of the influence of various socio-economic factors on this change;
Evaluation of the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the population in material goods and various services according to comparable rational norms of their consumption and the development of general indicators of the standard of living on this basis.
The sources of information for solving the set tasks are: current accounting and reporting of enterprises, organizations and institutions serving the population; data on labor statistics, employment, employment and wages, household budgets, population censuses.
The system "Basic indicators of the standard of living of the population in a market economy" is the most complete and meets modern requirements.
I. General indicators.
1. The criterion of the standard of living.
3. Gross national product (consumption fund, personal consumption fund) per capita.
II. The income of the population.
1. Real total income of the population.
2. Real disposable income of the population.
3. The total income of the population.
4. Personal income of the population.
5. Personal disposable income of the population.
6. Cash income of the population.
7. Average income and average salary of workers.
8. Average real wages.
9. Average pension, allowances, scholarships.
III. Consumption and expenditures of the population.
The total consumption of material goods and services by the population.
Cash expenditures of the population.
3. Consumer spending of the population.
Consumption of basic foodstuffs by the population.
The purchasing power of the average wage.
The purchasing power of the average pension.
IV. Monetary savings of the population.
1. The amount of monetary savings of the population.
V. Accumulated property and housing.
The value of accumulated household (personal) property.
Availability and characteristics of durable goods owned by the population.
Housing conditions of the population.
VI. Social differentiation of the population.
1. Distribution of the population by the size of the average per capita (average for the household) total income.
2. Consumption of basic foodstuffs, non-food products and services by the population with different levels of per capita (average for the household) total income.
3. The structure of consumer spending of the population with different levels of average per capita (average for the household) income.
4. Dynamics of the cost of the actual and normative consumer baskets of various segments of the population.
6. Decile coefficients of differentiation of incomes and consumption of the population.
7. The ratio of average values of income and consumption within the boundaries of the upper and lower deciles.
8. The share of quintile (decile) groups of the population (households) by the level of average per capita (average for the household) income in the total income of society.
VII. Low-income segments of the population.
1. Living wage (poverty threshold).
2. Minimum consumer budget.
3. Minimum wage.
4. Minimum pension.
5. The purchasing power of the minimum wage.
6. Purchasing power of the minimum pension.
7. Coefficient (level) of poverty.
8. Lack of income.
9. Zones of poverty.
10. Social portrait of poverty.
The most important 12 indicators out of the 40 listed are included in the system of indicators for assessing the progress of economic reform in Russia in section 10 "Social sphere, living standards of the population" and in subsection 10.3 "Living standard". The 12 indicators include:
1. Average wages of workers.
2. The purchasing power of the population with average wages and pensions.
3. The minimum consumer budget for the main socio-demographic groups of the population.
4. Living wage for the main socio-demographic groups of the population.
5. The number and proportion of the population with average per capita incomes below the minimum consumer budget and subsistence (physiological) minimum.
6. Food consumption in households with different levels of average per capita income.
7. Monetary income and expenses of certain socio-demographic groups of the population.
8. Indicators of population differentiation.
9. The ratio of average per capita incomes of 10% of the most and 10% of the least well-to-do population.
11. The structure of consumer spending of various socio-demographic groups of the population.
12. Distribution of the population by the size of the average per capita income.
Mechanical change - a change in the population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:
external;
internal;
seasonal;
pendulum.
The absolute indicator of population movement is B.
The number of arrivals - P.
Absolute mechanical gain - P mech. =P-V.
The intensity of mechanical movement is characterized by the following relative performance :
1) arrival rate – ;
2) retirement rate – ;
3) mechanical gain coefficient – ;
To characterize the change in the number due to the natural movement of the population and due to migrations, we calculate overall growth rate:
3) K o.p. =K est.prir. + To mech.prir.
72.2.5. CALCULATIONS OF PROSPECTIVE NUMBER
POPULATION
In the system of indicators characterizing the state and development of the economic, political and cultural life of the country, an important role is played by projections of population, which are built on the basis of hypotheses regarding the future dynamics of fertility, mortality and migration.
Prospective calculations of the population are made on the basis of the population obtained both from population censuses and current estimates, birth and death tables, and current statistical reporting. The calculations take into account the migration of the population between urban settlements and rural areas, between regions within Russia and external migration.
The predicted birth and death rates, which are determined for each territory, are the result of special scientific research based on state statistics and special sample surveys.
For prospective calculations of the population, the method of shifting by age is used. The essence of this method is as follows.
The census recorded a certain number of people in a given age group ( Sx,t). In a year, these people will move to the next age group, while they will live until the next year in a certain ratio, which is taken from the mortality tables in the form of a survival coefficient calculated there ( px). If we multiply the population in the age group ( Sx,t) by the corresponding survival rate (Px,t), then the resulting value will characterize the population in a year in the next age group ( Sx+1, t+1). To determine the population for subsequent years of the forecast, the operation is repeated. General form of calculation:
S(x+1,t+1) = S(x,t)*P(x,t) + W(x,t)
where W(x,t) - the volume of migration included in the calculation, distributed by sex and age.
Expected number of births per year ( t) is calculated by multiplying the number of women aged 15-49 by the corresponding fertility rates ( fx,t) obtained from birth tables. The calculation can be represented by the formula:
N(t) = S(15,t)*F(15,t) + ..... + S(49,t)*F(49,t)
N(t) is the number of births,
S is the average number of women.
Forecast number of deaths per year ( t) is defined as the difference between the population at the beginning of the year and the population moved to the end of the year. The calculation of the number of deaths is carried out according to the formula:
M(t) = S(1- P(x,t)*S(x, t)) + N(t)*(1-P(N,t))
x = 0
M(t) - the number of deaths,
P(N,t) is the survival rate of newborns until the end of the year.
Calculations of the prospective population are carried out for one-year age groups (from 0 to 100 years), separately for men and women, urban and rural population of the republics within Russia, territories, regions. The prospective population for the Russian Federation is obtained as the sum of the calculation results for its constituent regions. At the same time, the prospective calculation takes into account the peculiarities of the reproduction of the population of each region.
As a result of the calculation, data are obtained on the total number of urban and rural populations, the population by sex and age groups, the number of births, deaths, and natural increase. The calculation program provides for obtaining a number of analytical indicators: population growth, population growth rates, the share of urban and rural population, the share of certain age groups in the total population, the "demographic load" indicator, the ratio of men and women, general birth rates, mortality and natural increase, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth.
The results of the calculation of the prospective population are analyzed in order to assess their plausibility. To do this, a comparison of the indicators of the prospective calculation with the dynamics of the corresponding indicators for previous years is carried out.
The results of calculating the prospective population size are influenced not only by the future dynamics of fertility and mortality, but also by the age structure of the population. Thus, a change in the number of women aged 15-49 years (especially 20-29 years old), associated with fluctuations in the number of births in previous years, will affect the growth or decrease in the number of births and total fertility rates in a prospective calculation. An increase in the size and share of the older population in the total population (the so-called "aging" process of the population) will lead to an increase in the number of deaths and overall mortality rates.
To study the influence of fertility, mortality and migration on the results of a prospective population calculation, multivariate calculations are made that take into account different levels of population reproduction and migration indicators.
At present, the State Statistics Committee of Russia has calculated two options for calculating the prospective population size up to 2005, which provide for the following demographic development scenarios. The "medium" variant assumes that by the beginning of the next century the consequences of the demographic crisis will be overcome and the death rate will stabilize, while the birth rate will be established at the level characteristic of the countries of Europe, North America and Japan. According to this option, the population at the end of the period will be about 143 million people. The "pessimistic" variant assumes the continuation of the negative trends in demographic development that took shape in the 1990s, it provides for a further decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. According to this option, the population of Russia will decrease to 136 million people. The "pessimistic" version of the forecast can be regarded as a warning forecast.
Theme IV
LABOR STATISTICS AND THEIR USE
The man of labor plays a decisive role in the development of economic activity, the improvement of its organization and management in order to obtain the greatest return from his creative work.
People invent and produce tools of labor and means of production, organize a rational division and cooperation of labor at various levels of production activity, from the workplace to organization within the framework of the entire national economy.
The labor force, as a combination of physical and spiritual abilities of a person, is the main productive force of society and constitutes the labor resources of all enterprises and institutions belonging to various sectors of the national economy.
The labor resources of each produced unit are part of the labor resources distributed over the branches of the national economy.
The statistical characteristic of the availability of labor resources of an enterprise, institution, association, industry, agriculture, construction or transport individually or the entire national economic complex is the list number of employees employed in them.
The statistics of each branch of the national economy studies the following issues related to the use of human labor:
1. statistics of labor resources and their use;
2. labor productivity statistics;
3. salary statistics.
Labor force statistics, in turn, is divided into two parts: labor force statistics and working time statistics.
The main tasks of labor force statistics are the study of the number and composition of employees, the study of changes in the number of employees; assessment of the provision of the enterprise with labor resources; study of the organization of labor and the use of workers with appropriate qualifications; study of labor discipline.
The tasks of working time statistics are:
1. determination of the total amount of hours worked;
2. studying the use of working time and identifying the loss of working time.
Natural population movement.. The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces, as well as changes in life expectancy. The natural movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators include: 1. number of births per year (N); 2. number of deaths (M);
3. absolute natural population growth, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths (N-M).
Absolute indicators The natural movement of the population does not characterize the intensity of its reproduction, and they cannot be used for a comparative analysis of the reproduction of the population in different territories. For this purpose, relative indicators of the natural movement of the population are used, which are expressed as coefficients called ppm (‰).
Relative vital rates are calculated as the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicator to the average annual population and multiplied by 1000. Relative indicators can be general and particular. To general indicators include the birth rate, death rate and vital movement (growth) of the population. Relative indicators of the vital movement of the population.
Statistics of the mechanical movement of the population (population migration).
In population statistics, mechanical movement refers to the movement of the population across the territory of the country. The mechanical movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators. The main absolute indicators of migration are:
1.
the number of arrivals in a given territory per year (P); 2
. the number of those who left the given territory per year (B);
3.
migration balance (migration gain), which is defined as the difference between arrivals and departures (ΔSmech = P-B); 4
. migration turnover, which is the sum of the number of arrivals and departures (MO=P+V).
The relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population include the coefficient of population growth and the coefficient of general population growth. 
Methods for calculating the coefficient of general population growth.
The total population changes through births and deaths, as well as through the mechanical movement of the population.
This is the relationship of the total absolute population growth, natural and mechanical population growth.
How the population growth rate is calculated depends on the available data.
The listed indicators of the mechanical movement of the population can be calculated both for the whole population as a whole and for various groups of the population (age, ethnic, etc.).
In international comparisons, the statistics of the mechanical movement of the population uses such terms as immigrant and emigrant, immigrant worker and emigrant worker.
For analytical purposes, to characterize migration flows and flows of migrant workers, the following indicators are calculated:
1. the share of indicators of international labor migration in the corresponding indicators of general migration of the population based on absolute data;
2. the share of emigrants and immigrants of working age in the total number of emigrants and immigrants in a given country.
(SES) 9. Employment and unemployment rate
Employment- the activity of the able-bodied population, associated with the production of material and spiritual goods in order to meet personal and social needs, which does not contradict the law and, as a rule, brings them earnings (labor income).
Quantitatively, employment is characterized by an indicator of the level of employment. It can be calculated in two ways:
1) The share of employed in the total population: Uz = Chz/Chn, where Chz is the number of employed people, Chn is the total population. 2) The share of employed in the economically active population:
Uz=Chz/(Chz+Chb), where Chb is the number of unemployed.
In international statistics, the initial indicator for the analysis of employment is the level of economic activity of the population, i.e. share of the economically active population in the total population:
Uea \u003d (Chz + Bb) / Chn.
The practical need for population accounting necessitates the identification of species (structures) of employment– distribution of the active part of labor resources by spheres and sectors of the economy, by gender and age, and level of education.
Unemployment- lack of employment among a certain, greater or lesser part of the economically active population, able and willing to work.
The most important indicators of unemployment are:
1. The unemployment rate (UB) is the share of the number of unemployed (B) in the economically active population (EAP), expressed as a percentage.
The calculation of the unemployed according to the ILO method involves a periodic sample survey, a survey of the population by any state body, excluding employment services. In our country, this work is carried out by the State Committee on Statistics. Sample survey is carried out by 2 methods: periodically conducted surveys of families (USA, Japan, etc.);
counting the number of applications submitted to the state employment service for unemployment benefits (Great Britain, etc.).
In accordance with the methodology of the Federal Employment Service of Russia, the unemployment rate is determined by the following formula: 
Where Z is the number of employees.
The level of registered (registered) unemployment (Ubr) is determined by the formula: where is the number of unemployed registered by the employment authorities.
2. Duration of unemployment, i.e. the value that characterizes the average duration of the job search (in months) by persons who have the status of unemployed at the end of the period under review, as well as by those unemployed who were employed in this period.
Migration - the movement of people across the borders of territories with a change of residence forever or for a certain time.
The movement of people within a country is called internal migration, and the movement of population from one country to another - external.
|
Gross migration (gross migration) or migration turnover |
Shows the total number of migrating residents (P + V). |
|
Balance of migration or mechanical increase |
Difference between the number of arrivals and departures: (R - T) |
|
arrival rate | |
|
Retirement rate |
|
|
Coefficient of mechanical growth (intensity of migration) of the population |
|
|
Migration turnover intensity coefficient |
Characterizes the frequency of cases of change of residence in the total population for a certain period |
|
Migration efficiency ratio |
|
|
Population growth rate |
To common = K est.pr + K mech.pr |
Typical task 2
The mechanical movement of the region's population is characterized by the following data.
The average annual population is 146,900 people.
Arrived in this region - 495 people.
Dropped out of the region - 216 people.
Define:
migration growth;
volume of migration;
arrival rate;
retirement rate;
general coefficient of migration intensity;
coefficient of migration turnover intensity;
migration efficiency factor.
Draw your own conclusions.
Solution: 1. Migration growth = 495 - 216 = 279 people.
2. The volume of migration = 495+216=711 people.
3. Arrival rate: %o .
4. Retirement rate: %o .
5. General coefficient of migration intensity:
To fur pr = K arr – To select\u003d 3.36 - 1.47 \u003d 1.89% o.
6. Migration turnover coefficient:
7. Migration efficiency ratio:
In this region, population growth is observed due to the positive balance of migration.
Typical task 3
The population of the country at the beginning of the year was 105,599.6 thousand people. During the year, 1311.604 thousand people were born, 2254.856 thousand people died. 2334.034 thousand people arrived for permanent residence in the country, 2252.253 thousand people departed. The number of women aged 15 to 49 years was 39097.069 thousand people.
Based on the data above, calculate:
1) population at the end of the year;
2) average annual population;
3) general coefficients of natural and mechanical movement of the population;
4) Pokrovsky's vitality coefficient;
5) special coefficient of fertility (fertility) of women;
6) prospective population in 2 years.
Draw your own conclusions.
Solution: 1. Population at the end of the year:
S k.g \u003d S n.g + N - M + P - V \u003d 105599.6 + 1311.604 - 2254.856 + 2334.034 - 2252.253 \u003d 104738.129 (thousand people)
2. Average annual population:
(thousand people)
3. General coefficients:
Fertility rate: %about ;
Death rate: %about ;
Coefficient of natural increase (decrease) of the population:
Arrival rate: %o;
Retirement rate: %o;
Mechanical gain coefficient:
To fur pr = K arr - TO select\u003d 22.20 - 21.42 \u003d 0.78% o;
Migration efficiency ratio:
Overall growth rate:
To common = K est.pr + K mech.pr\u003d -8.97 + 0.78 \u003d -8.19% o.
4. Coefficient of vitality of Pokrovsky: 
.
5. Special female fertility rate:
Projected population in 2 years:
(thousand people).
It follows from the given and received data that the country is experiencing a natural population decline; the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, and migration processes do not make up for the loss. There are processes of depopulation of the population, while the low fertility rate of women plays an important role in this situation. Thus, in 2 years the prospective population will be less than the actual one.
